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Dear Reader,

You may have missed my September 13th appearance on Bloomberg TV. If you did, you may want to watch this video and see what I was saying about stocks, crude oil ($10,000 later) and inflation.

So how did we get it right and Chairman Bernanke and the FED get it completely wrong?

By viewing this short Bloomberg TV interview, you will see first hand that we predicted problems with the US markets and the economy on major financial networks over 5 months ago. The market action on Friday was not a surprise to readers of this blog. Is there more to come?

Watch the video.

Original post.

I have said this before, we are not in buy and hold markets anymore. You need to be fluid and go with the flow. The old market adage is “Don’t fight the tape”.

Every success in the markets.

Adam Hewison

Hi Traders,

We are only two weeks into the new year and it’s turning out to be one heck of a ride. There have been so many opportunities to make money, I hardly know where to begin.

First off, I think you should watch this video as it applies to all the market volatility we are seeing right now. I made the video several months ago and it’s about the most important rule change I have ever seen in my 37 years of trading. Yes, I admit, I love the markets and trading in them, where else can you have this much fun?

This major Security Exchange Commission (SEC) rule change, is a shocker, and it’s having exactly the effect I thought it would on the markets. It was put in place in 1938 to protect investors and to curb volatility.

Ask yourself this, is volatility higher or lower than it was 12 months ago?

If you answered higher, you are 100% correct. Anyway, I highly recommend that you take a couple of minutes and watch the video. There’s no charge, and no need to register.

As I am writing this blog posting I am cruising at 30,000 feet thanks to Southwest Airlines on my way to San Francisco, California. The trip is partly for business, but mainly to spend some time with one of my daughters before she takes off to live in New Zealand. If you haven’t guessed it already, she met a young man from that country and has decided to move there and make New Zealand her new home.

Life presents many opportunities, and I am proud of my daughter for taking this one.

As a dad and a trader I find life’s opportunities fascinating, don’t you?

Anyhow, my daughter’s move to Kiwi Land got me thinking about a lot of things most of which are personal and I’m keeping to myself. But, it did get me thinking that I haven’t written much on this blog about currencies lately.

How many of you have ever traded in the currency markets?

Now the currency markets often refereed to as the forex markets, are huge, highly liquid and offer a totally new set of great trading opportunities.

The reason I mentioned that my daughter was moving to New Zealand is the fact that the New Zealand dollar which is referred to as the Kiwi dollar, has had a remarkable run up against the US Dollar. One of the principal reasons for this strong upward move is interest rate differentials. Here in the US, chairman Ben Bernanke seems H–L bent on lowering rates, while in New Zealand they have been on a steady course of raising them.

Take a guess which country all the money is flowing into? It’s going to the countries that have highest interest rates.

Here’s a chart of the Kiwi dollar against the US dollar for the past few years. Doesn’t it make sense that you would want to have you money in currency that is paying one of the highest rates of return on capital in the world and is appreciating? Of course it does, and that my friend is perhaps the most important fundamental reasons why trading in the forex markets make sense.

Did you know that MarketClub has real-time currency quotes on all the major currencies, including the Kiwi dollar? If you are already a member of MarketClub you might want to run our “Trade Triangle Technology” against the Kiwi dollar and some of the other major currencies. I think you’ll be impressed at the numbers and sweet returns you’ll find there.

If you are not a MarketClub member check out this forex video … it’s free and there is no need for registration. The video will give you a glimpse into MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” approach to the forex markets.

Right now I’ve got to wrap up this blog posting as the captain of flight 810 to San Francisco is informing us to switch off all electronic devices for landing.

So until next time, every success in life and in trading.

Cheers,

Adam Hewison

The 4^th quarter was just another nail bitting chapter in the story of “battered U.S. Financial institutions.” Although now international investors are helping to bail the water out of sinking companies like Citigroup and Merill Lynch, many investors lost their shirts with the dive that these companies took through Q4. With NYSE_MER falling 17.32% and NYSE_C dropping 36.1%, MarketClub members managed to profit with possible gains of 12.48% and 24.83% respectively.

World Rides to Wall Street’s Rescue

In the latest sign of America’s sinking financial fortunes, investors from as far afield as Japan, Korea, Singapore, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have come to the rescue of Wall Street.

The list of players that agreed yesterday to pump a combined $19.1 billion of capital into Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. spotlights a dramatic shift in power. After flooding the world with capital that fed both economic growth and excess, battered U.S. financial institutions now are turning to countries and companies that not so long ago were suffering through their own disasters.

Yesterday’s infusions follow earlier investments into … Read the rest of the article here

Q4 MarketClub Member Results

Monthly triangle has been red since July 2007

Entry on weekly corresponding red – 10/15/07 @ 45.86
Exit on weekly green – 12/10/07 @34.65

Enter weekly corresponding red – 12/20/07 @ 29.5
Exit close of 4Q – 12-31-07 @ 29.32

2 Trades Up $11.39 /share

*Q4 per share dropped 36%, however MarketClub members used the triangles for a 24% gain

Monthly triangle has been red since February 2007

Entry on weekly corresponding red – 10/17/07 @ 69.91
Exit on weekly green – 11/30/07 @ 61.18

1 Trade Up $ 8.93 /share

*Q4 per share dropped 17.32%, however MarketClub members used the triangles for a 12% gain

These results were generated by using MarketClub’s suggested method for reading the “Trade Triangles” for equities. Please see a video on the suggested method here.

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President, INO.com

Sorry this post is a bit late, but I’ve been playing
with the new INO TV Premium…WOW. Hundreds
of experts, hundreds of topics…you’ve got to check
it out today!

Anyway, here’s your ninth lesson in “The Secrets Of
Professional Floor Traders” mini email course.

Lesson 9 – “Average Directional Movement Index”
by Adam Hewison

================================================================

In this lesson we are going to use the ADX indicator to
filter out some of those pesky losing trades. Many
traders know how to get into a position but are often
uncertain as to how long they should stay with a trade.
This indicator provides excellent guidance for knowing
when to hold and when to fold.

Because this lesson contains charts, it has been posted
here.

Average Directional Movement Index

All my best this week!

P.S. Look out for the next lesson – This is going to be
a cracker and a technique I know will help you master
the markets.

It’s almost 28 years ago to the day, that gold traded up to $878 on an intra-day basis.

I know as I was there trading on the floor of the exchange. At the time inflation was running high as was the excitement of the “GOLD BUGS” and all the pundits who were all predicting that gold would hit $1,000, no make that $2,000 an ounce by the end of 1980.

Well guess what, gold never did make it up to $1,000. As a matter of fact, shortly afterwards gold began to lose value, This came as a big shock to the goldies who could not, would not, and did not believe that their precious metal could go down and lose purchasing power.

So what happend almost a generation ago? What caused gold to evapoate and lose value for the next 28 years?

The main reason was that inflation began to come under control and there was little reason to own gold. The bigger reason in my mind, was that the perception of the market had changed.

So where does that leave us?

Here we are 28 years later and gold is trading at new all time highs of close to $900 an ounce. Can you imagine holding onto an investment for 28 years just to get even!!!

Chart Courtesy of MarketClub.com

I know that generally gold has not been a good investment over the years. It may not have been a good investment, but it has proven to be a great trading market.

The talk now is that gold should be in inflation adjusted dollars trading at $2,100. Well it’s not, it’s trading just below $900.

Will it go over $900 and hit $1,000 … who knows?

Is the trend in gold up? Yes, it is.

Is the trend likely to continue … who knows.

What I do know is that gold is a great trading vehicle, and you can do very well trading in and out of this metal.

It all comes down to this, it doesn’t matter which way the market is headed, what matters is you get the direction right.

Good traders listen to what the market is saying and not what the pundits are pushing.

It all has to do with distortion of the reality field and traders perception. I always take the safe bet and listen to what the markets are saying and doing.

If you haven’t watched my video on gold or looked at our Q3 results on gold (we are updating Q4 results now and they are positive) then you may be missing out on some great trading opportunities in ’08.

Every success trading the yellow metal.

Adam Hewison.

It sure is hard to ignore the news. Although one of Adam’s “Golden Trading Rules” is… “Don’t listen to the news, listen to the markets,” it is hard to cut yourself off from reading headlines. Use news as a red flag, but not a panic button… let the market do its thing before you react in response to an article, TV story, etc. Keeping that in mind I thought the article below was interesting read and was a story that threw up a red flag for me when looking at the Crude Oil market.

Enjoy and happy trading. Oh and I think I am the only staff member that forgot to send Happy New Year greetings, if that is the case… HAPPY NEW YEAR – I hope this is your most prosperous new year yet!

Oil prices up slightly ahead of inventory report

Associated Press

VIENNA, Austria — Oil prices rose Wednesday amid expectations a U.S. government report will show crude oil stockpiles fell last week.

Prices were also supported by fears of further violence in Nigeria, the world’s eighth-largest oil producer.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires predict crude inventories likely fell 800,000 barrels last week, while supplies of distillates, which include heating oil, likely fell 300,000 barrels. The U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration will release the report later Wednesday.

“That would be the eighth consecutive week of crude oil stock draws and U.S. crude oil inventories are already below the five year average for this time of the year,” said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery added 24 cents to $96.57 a barrel by afternoon in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.24 to settle at $96.33 a barrel on Tuesday. Oil was also being supported by a surge in the price of gold, analysts said. Gold futures surged above $880 an ounce Tuesday to their highest level ever, not accounting for inflation.

“Part of the recovery of oil yesterday and this morning is due to fresh investor funds coming into oil and commodities,” Shum said.

Reports that Nigerian militants are planning attacks on the nation’s oil facilities were also sending prices higher. In a research note, Vienna’s PVM Oil Associates noted that the country had “already lost some 15 percent of crude output capacity” due to violence. Still it forecast increased production of around 2.35 million barrels a day for this year, up from last month’s 2.22-million barrel daily output.

A monthly EIA report Tuesday predicted oil supplies will be tight this year but ease in 2009. The EIA slightly raised global oil consumption growth forecasts, and said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will likely supply nearly a million more barrels of oil per day this year than previously expected.

The EIA predicted oil prices will average $87 a barrel this year, up from a previous estimate of $85. The average price will then fall to $82 a barrel in 2009, it said.

In London, February Brent crude rose by 35 cents to $95.91 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Heating oil futures rose by less then a penny to $2.6424 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices slipped marginally to fetch $2.4703 a gallon. Natural gas prices jumped by more than 18 cents, selling at $8.151 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Longer term projections for the direction of oil prices remain bearish, however. On Wednesday, the World Bank became the latest institution to predict that prices will likely decline gradually this year and next as crude demand weakens in the face of record prices.

“If you look at the fundamentals, there is scope for lower oil prices,” said Hans Timmer, co-author of the bank’s annual “Global Economic Prospects” report, at its launch in Singapore. “We forecast more or less a sustained, gradual decline.”

A barrel of light, sweet crude surpassed $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the first time last week.

The World Bank’s report predicts that a barrel of crude oil will cost $84.10 on average this year and fall by 6.8 percent to $78.40 a barrel in 2009. It estimates that the average price of crude oil last year was $71.20 a barrel.

The forecasts are based an average of three benchmark oil prices: Dubai, Brent and West Texas Intermediate.

As demand wanes, OPEC countries have had to reduce their production by a million barrels over the last three quarters to a year to keep prices high, the economist said.