S&P 500
1324.80
-5.86 -0.44%
Dow Indu
12598.55
-33.45 -0.26%
Nasdaq
2874.40
-19.36 -0.67%
Crude Oil
93.52
+0.33 +0.35%
Gold
1544.38
+11.30 +0.74%
CRB Index
289.35
+0.21 +0.06%
US Dollar
81.277
-0.065 -0.08%
Weak

Be prepared with these three markets

Friday, June 20, 2008

FR: Adam Hewison, President INO.com

RE: 3 Markets that will change everything

Dear blog reader,

Every once in a while there comes a time in the market when you get to see some amazing trading opportunities.

I believe this could be one of those times.

In this special private video I analyze in detail the upcoming major moves in three major markets. This just maybe the most important video I have ever made on these three markets and I want you to see it.

Watch this video.

Every success in the markets and in life,

Adam Hewison
Co-Creator, MarketClub.com

Back Testing for Better Trading Results

In today’s guest blog post I asked Ingela Troha to talk about something that has plagued me, and millions of traders each and every year…it’s back testing! Please read the full article, and put the info to good use!

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Back Testing can be a dirty word for traders who are too impatient to test their trading plan. Just the thought of it feels like an inconvenience, and a delay of getting into the live markets. Also many are confused about what the process involves, or completely unaware of how valuable it is to the bottom line of their results.

The benefits of back testing are extensive; years of experience can be gained over a shorter time frame (sometimes within hours) which further develops the traders intuition as the get to know their trading plan intimately; there is also the advantage of using your trading system through various market conditions and not just the current market type; plus testing new indicators and tweaking old ones; or creating a trading plan tailored to your own personal style.

The back testing process involves taking what criteria you have within your trading plan and applying it over at least 4 years of data – pick a period including all movements; bull, bear and sideways conditions. Your trading criteria must be well defined and not open to subjectivity – if it is get rid of it and find a new indictor. Trading rules should be very clear, for example: “Enter 1 daily close above the XX Day Simple Moving Average, with a Stop Loss 25 points away…” and so on. Trading criteria must be so precise that if you were to give the information to 10 different people they would come back with the same results. If there is too much room for interpretation within your rules, you will find it hard to repeat your successes
and avoid losing trades.

Once you have applied your trading criteria over a historical period, carefully noting each trade, you will be able to reflect on each position you took and identify a number of things; you may be able to minimize the risk of each trade by moving your stop loss closer or minimize the probability of being unnecessarily stopped out by having it even further away. For example, if over the 4 year period you made a total of 100 trades where 60 were winning and 40 were losing, you could analyze all the losing trades and see if any of those could have been eliminated or minimized. You could bring in an extra rule or indicator that would have avoided the placement of those losing trades, (however, remember that a new indicator could also have subsequently not allowed you to enter some of the most profitable trades so these need to be tested for viability).

The scenarios that you can back test are endless, and the process may at the time feel quite daunting or monotonous but it is actually deepening your feel for the market by training your eye to look for market movements and patterns that repeat…setting you up as an agile trader to effectively stalk the live markets.

Back testing of course cannot replicate the emotions you will feel that fuel the live markets, but it will add to your profit margin in more ways than one. Happy back testing…

Ingela Troha

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Ingela Troha is a professional trader with over 14 years experience
within the financial services industry – www.unearthedfinancial.com.au

Trading Successfully in a downward trending market

Today our guest blog posting will cover something that’s been on our minds for the past few months…a Bear market! I’m often asked, “what can I do?” There isn’t enough time in the day to help someone who asks me questions like that to be honest. If you don’t have a place to start, or a strategy in place you’re already behind and destine for failure. So read the article below from WallStreetSurvivor and set up your plan.

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Making money in a down market may seem impossible, but there are proven strategies that allow you to profit and seize opportunities that are available in almost any Down, or Bear, market.

When there is turbulence in the stock market, and there appears to be widespread pessimism about stocks, should you simply throw in the towel, sell all your holdings and wait for the market to turn bullish again? The answer is NO! The key is to turn these bumps into plateaus of opportunities. There are several proven strategies to turn market losses into your gains.

Here are three:

* Shorting Stocks
* Buying Bear Market ETF’s
* Buying Defensive Stocks

Shorting Stocks

So… Shorting is a way to make a profit from a stock falling in price when the market is bearish.
In ‘short’, it’s a bet that a certain stock will fall.

If a stock looks like it will start losing value, then you can bet against it and make money as its price drops. When you short, you are actually borrowing the shares from your broker with the intention of selling them in the future. So basically, it’s a loan of the shares. But the price you sell them at is all profit.

Let’s look at an example. If stock ABC is trading at $30 and you expect it to go down, you would ‘short’ sell it. This means if your broker has loaned you money to buy ABC at $30/share and it falls to $25/share, you make a profit $5/share. That is, you sold the stock for $30/share, and you only paid $25/share for it, even though you sold it before you paid for it. Shorting stocks allows you to make money on a stock when it falls in value.

Let’s dive into a few more facts about shorting and risks associated with shorting. To start with, borrowing shares means margin and while you short-sold a stock, if the company announces a dividend, you would have to reimburse the owner for the dividend. Meanwhile, your downside risk is equivalent to how high the stock may rise after you short-sold which is potentially unlimited downside risk.

Another way to look at a bear market if you’re not a big fan of shorting is…

Bear Market ETFs

An alternative to shorting stocks or indexes is to buy Bear Market Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Bear Market ETFs are designed in a way that when major indexes go down, these ETFs gain value that matches the drop in the index. Moreover, a type of ETF called Ultra Short ETFs allow you to multiply your gains (or losses) by investing in leveraged ETFs. What that means is for a 2:1 leveraged Ultra Short ETF, if the underlying index goes down by 4%, your ETF would go up by 8%. For example, the Ultra Short ETF – Short Ultra Financials (AMEX: SKF) has a 2:1 leveraged relation with the underlying Dow Jones U.S. Financials index (INDEX: DJUSFN). Beginning in November 2007, if you would have bought SKF, with a 10% loss in the index value; you would have gained 20%. Not bad, huh?

In summary, with Bear Market ETFs, you could still reap the benefits of shorting in a down market, without worrying about margin or the unlimited risk associated with shorting a stock. Additionally, Ultra Short ETFs provide an interesting alternative to multiply your gains or to hedge a downturn by investing in leveraged securities.

More Bear Market ETFs:

* UltraShort Consumer Goods (AMEX: SZK)
* UltraShort Health Care (AMEX: RXD)
* UltraShort Oil & Gas (AMEX: DUG)
* UltraShort Real Estate (AMEX: SRS)
* UltraShort Semiconductors (AMEX: SSG)
* UltraShort Utilities (AMEX: SDP)

Bear Market Index ETF’s:

* UltraShort Nasdaq (AMEX: QID) is designed to profit when the Nasdaq index of technology stocks goes down.
* UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (AMEX: SDS) is designed to profit when the S&P 500 index goes down.
* UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (AMEX: DXD) is designed to profit when the Dow Jones Industrial Index goes down.

Defensive Stock Picks

Seema Garg, Program Manager at Wall Street Survivor

Looking for more ways to profit in a Down market? Here are six industries to BUY in a Bear market that could make you money while others may be selling:

Wall Street Survivor

http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Learn/DefensiveStockPicks.aspx

Now this would get my undivided attention!

Imagine you’re in your favorite restaurant enjoying a nice dinner. All of a sudden a beautiful young lady jumps up on the table and starts dancing even though there is no music.

Would that get your attention?

I know it would get my attention, not because it was a beautiful lady, but because it is out of the realm of normalcy for this restaurant to have anyone dancing on their tables.

The point I am making is this… sometimes markets act a little out of the ordinary despite what everyone is saying and thinking about them. When this happens you need to pay close attention to that market.

Why? Because that market maybe getting ready to do something totally contrary to prevailing sentiment.

For the first time in 20 months we have received a signal that many would consider out of the ordinary and going against popular sentiment.

I have prepared a short video that I would like to share with you today.

Here’s the video link.

Let me know how you enjoy the video and if you found it helpful. You can reply back to support@ino.com.

Thanks for reading this e-mail and every success in the markets and in life,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

Be Our Guest

We welcome syndication of our content in your blog or on your trading website. Please feel free to use our content with attribution – more details here to syndicate our content

Traders Toolbox: Trading tools for today’s markets

To some, technical analysis is a mystical method used by individuals to look into the future. Much of the glamour comes from the use of technical analysis as a predictive tool. While predictions can invigorate in a manner such as taking a joy ride, the end result will often feel like a ride gone bad. Although less exciting, the better use of technical tools can be likened to the tools a doctor uses to diagnose the condition of a patient. Similarly, a technical analyst applies his tools to determine the present condition of the market. Once a diagnosis has been made, a trader has a guide on how to approach a market. The understanding and application of tools is an important step in the development of an analyst or a trader. Properly used, various technical tools allow the drawing together of pieces of evidence to determine the market’s present condition. While no one can guarantee the correct analysis of a market, the more evidence you gather, the better your odds. Once the evidence is gathered, diagnosing a market often ends up in a process much like jury deliberation. Each piece of evidence is considered; some will be accepted as valid, others may be suspect. Often one or two pieces of evidence prove to be the key in making a final determination. Once an analysis is made, based on the preponderance of evidence, a trader is ready to plan a course of action. TOOLS OF THE TRADE: The purpose of the series is to expose the reader to various analytical tools and to allow an insight into their applications. Hopefully the reader will have a better understanding of why a final diagnosis of a market’s conditions has been reached.

Happy Fathers Day from the Traders Club Blog

I wanted to wish a happy father’s day to all the dads that read our blog. It’s not often that we get a whole day of credit for how much we do on the other 364 days of year.

We cut the grass, balance the checkbook, kill the spiders, move the couch, the list is endless.

I wanted to give you a special something as a thank you to all the dads and fathers out there who continue to do the things that are often not recognized.

We’d like to offer you a “2 Week Free Trial” to MarketClub. There is no billing information required, just enter your information and start browsing around the MarketClub site.

Click Here to start your 2 week trial

This offer only comes ONCE A YEAR…kinda like Father’s Day. The trial gives you access to ALL the tools that MarketClub has to offer. This promotion will be offered to the public tomorrow, but we wanted to extend this free trial to you on this special day.
So take the trial by using the link below:

2 Week Free MarketClub Trial

Have a happy father’s day and enjoy the gift,

The MarketClub Team

“Saturday Seminars” – Bonds and Other Futures, Equities and Cash Markets — A Master Trading Plan

You will learn several short-term trading techniques including three new trading signals, IDR (Inside Day Reversal), LMI (Leading Momentum Indicator) and TBS (Third Bar Signal), through the use of a daily bar chart. Joseph discuses mechanical entry points, protective stops and profit objectives for short-term trades of two to five days. Joseph’s presentation shows you his integration of the various short-term trading signals and how they form a master trading plan for participating in various markets.

Joseph B. StowellJoseph B. Stowell, sole proprietor of Money Management Services, a financial and trading consulting business, has spent over thirty years trading his own account. Joseph created the Bond Investor Newsletter, a publication primarily devoted to teaching successful short-term trading methods for the bond futures contract. The development of his technical trading methods for the bond market (applicable to other markets as well) follows the precept of “keeping it simple,” a point which Joseph emphasizes in his book, Tips for Traders and Investors, Trading U.S. Bonds and Stocks. Joseph also has over twenty years of experience teaching in the public schools of New York. This combination of trading and teaching experience gives Joseph the unique ability to explain difficult concepts in clear and easily understood presentations. As a trader, Joseph often shares his trading methods through individual tutoring and seminars. Joseph has participated in TAG conferences in Southeast Asia, Europe, India, and the Middle East, as well as cities in Canada and throughout the United States. Using the bond market as his primary trading vehicle, he has developed seven new trading approaches. These techniques are useful across a variety of markets such as metals, currencies, stock index, individual stocks, the energy sector, and agricultural products.

These 3 markets will change everything


Every once in a while there comes a time in the market when you get to see some amazing trading opportunities.

I believe this could be one of those times.

In this special private video I analyze in detail the upcoming major moves in three major markets. This just maybe the most important video I have ever made on these three markets and I want you to see it.

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

What’s the hardest thing a trader will ever have to do?

Today I’ve decided that we need to show our support to our huge Aussie following by giving Dean Whittingham, a native Aussie and trading mentor, the ability to teach us a thing or two about what he’s learned while trading in Australia. He’s been a mentor, trader, teacher, and technical analyst for years and today he’ll be blogging about the hardest thing a trader will have to do.

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Visit forums, join memberships, purchase tuition with member areas for support, read books, talk to fellow traders etc and you can be guaranteed you will come across many who will be struggling with a whole host of reasons why. Some will even appear as experts but beneath the surface are struggling with some aspect of their own trading system or style. But do you know what the hardest thing any trader will have to do is?

1. Learn the jargon – no way, this is easy and it just takes time.

2. Find a profitable trading system – there are hundreds of thousands of them, in fact many are just given away for free nowadays.

3. Back test and paper trade – c’mon, I know many people don’t like hard work but you’re way off here.

4. Learning to read charts – kids like reading charts as they look at the green thing and they say, “Hey that’s going up”, or if they see a red thing they say “that’s going down”.

5. Setting goals – important because if you don’t have a goal, you’re floating aimlessly; but not the hardest.

6. Thinking successfully – no matter who you are or where you are there is always something you are good at. If this is so you already know how to be successful.

7. Being true to yourself – knowing who you are is indeed a quality that sets one apart from the rest and is therefore one of the hardest things a trader will ever have to learn, but not the hardest.

8. Cut losses short – it is hard to do this for many but it is definitely not the hardest.

9. Logging trades – as we are lazy this is done by a very few, but this does not make it the hardest, not by a long shot.

10. Keep emotions at bay – trading without emotions is very hard, but as we are humans the proper definition is more like managing emotions; but either way it is not the hardest thing a trader will ever have to do.

11. Remain independent – listening to other’s advice whether it is a newsletter, internet forum, or just your buddy next door is very easy to do as we like to follow other people by nature so to do the opposite is hard, but not the hardest.

12. Sticking to the rules of a plan or system – this is indeed hard but not the hardest. Many people trade with only rules for analyzing or entering, but most never have a complete set of rules anyway, but even those that do, it is not quite the hardest and you’re about to find out why.

13. Letting profits run – BINGO!

The hardest thing a trader will ever have to do is to let profits run. It doesn’t matter whether a trader uses trailing stops or profit targets, the ability to let a trade run its full course is the hardest thing a trader will have to consistently do.

Why is this so difficult?

For one, most place more emphasis on seeking opportunities and rules for entering than on anything else to do with running a trading business. And this is exactly how the whole “trading” thing is marketed. Very few traders have rules for exiting.

But even those that do have rules for exiting, only a small minority will stick to them, and this is because we as traders can not get past thinking about the money. Money rules us as traders and probably rules us in our lives too.

If you go back over all the points above I can tell you that all of them contribute in some way to the most difficult thing a trader will do; hold on to winning trades.

For example, if you think you’re a successful trader then why would you cut your profits short?

Because if you thought you were a success you would know yourself and where you need emotional management, you would learn any jargon and how to analyze, you would have a goal, and you would have a plan to go with it, which means you would have a system with rules for analyzing, entering and exiting, and you would have a fair idea how this system performs, which means you would have back-tested or paper traded it, and you’d cut losses short and you’d log all trades, you’d remain independent, and finally you’d stick to all the rules.

What a trader will face is the situation where they cut a profit short and take a look at what they made for that trade; this will send out a good feeling throughout their body. What will compound this feeling is if they look a little later on to see their decision was justified because the trade would have resulted in a loss if they’d not closed it out earlier.

The problem is this good feeling we are experiencing is encouraging bad behaviour whether it’s breaking rules, trading without a plan or whatever. To continue on this path will lead you to having to find more winning trades because the trades you do get wrong will cost you more than what you make from the profitable ones.

Now here comes the litmus test: If you cut a profit short only to see it would have been a lot more profitable had you held on longer or used your exit rules then this should hurt – I mean really hurt, but not because of the lost opportunity but because you see it as a failure on your part. If it doesn’t then success means very little to you.

All traders will go through the process of seeing themselves in a winning trade only to see it end up as a loss. This is inevitable. Apart from having someone look over your shoulder to prevent you breaking rules or cutting profits short, the only person who can do this is you! If you find yourself cutting profits short then look for your weakest links in your trading business. I have given you many here to ponder.

Dean Whittingham

http://www.atradersuniverse.com – Stock, futures and forex trading system development for all traders.
If you’d like to learn more from Dean I highly suggest his latest report on The Subtle Trap of Trading

New educational video on Apple’s stock price.

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

FR: Adam Hewison, President INO.com

RE: New educational video on Apple’s stock price.

Dave Maher my partner, just uploaded a new educational video on Apple’s stock price that I made after the close on Monday. I think you’ll find it interesting and very educational given Apple’s big announcement yesterday on the new iPhone.

Click on the chart to watch my new 3 minute educational trading video on Apple,

Cheers,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

P.S. Here’s all the details of the Apple announcement courtesy of AP

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By JORDAN ROBERTSON
AP Technology Writer

(AP:SAN FRANCISCO) The iPhone will soon be $200 cheaper _ and come with satellite navigation, faster Internet access and other new features _ but higher monthly service charges are likely to erase most of the savings.

Apple Inc. revealed Monday that it has scrapped its pricing plan for the iPhone as it unveiled a model that works over faster wireless networks, addressing key criticisms about the device that have hurt the company’s foray into the cell phone industry.

An 8-gigabyte version with the new features will go for $199 when it goes on sale July 11, and a 16 gigabyte model will cost $299, the Cupertino-based company said.

Current iPhone owners who buy a new model and sign up for a new AT&T contract won’t have to pay any penalties to get out of their current contract, AT&T spokesman Michael Coe said. And anyone who bought an iPhone in an AT&T store after May 26 can return it before Aug. 1 for full credit against a new one _ less a 10 percent restocking fee.

Apple plans to make up the difference in sales revenue with volume _ and with subsidies wireless carriers will now pay for the right to carry the gadget.

In changing the pricing arrangements, Apple is pulling out of revenue-sharing arrangements with some wireless carriers, a move that frees the carriers to charge higher prices for the service.

Apple shares fell $4.03, or 2.2 percent, to close Monday at $181.61 on the news, a sign that some investors were hoping for more and others were taking their profits after a four-month run-up in Apple’s stock price, which leaped from $120 in March.

The new iPhones, initially to be introduced in 22 countries, are designed to work over so-called 3G, or third-generation, wireless networks and have global-positioning technology built in.

They will also support Microsoft Corp.’s Exchange software, an addition that puts the iPhone in more direct competition with Research in Motion Ltd.’s BlackBerry and Palm Inc.’s Treo smart phones and is intended to appeal to the business market.

Analysts have said Apple needed to slash the iPhone’s price and make it usable on faster networks to hit the company’s target of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. Apple said the 3G iPhones download data twice as fast as the older ones.

Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said Apple has sold 6 million iPhones since the first model launched nearly a year ago and 700,000 since March. That points to a steady slowdown in sales starting in the fourth quarter last year as customers waited for a 3G version.

Jobs showed off the new models of the iPhone and about a dozen new applications for the device at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco.

New applications range from video games that use the iPhone’s motion-sensing technology to guide characters to study tools for medical students and a program that allows users to find nearby cell-phone-carrying friends on a map.

One program brings real-time video highlights and game stats from MLB.com; another creates an Associated Press news feed based on the user’s location and lets users submit news tips to the AP.

Apple also announced a new Web-based service called “MobileMe,” which the company describes as “Exchange _ for the rest of us,” a consumer-friendly way for people to link their iPhones to their home and work computers so updates entered into one device automatically appear in the others.

MobileMe will cost $99 per year and come with 20 gigabytes of online storage.

AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. carrier for the iPhone, said service for it will start at $39.99 per month, plus $30 for unlimited data. That works out to a $10 increase from the cheapest plan for the first-generation iPhone; over the course of a two-year contract, that increase wipes out the savings from the price cut Apple announced Monday.

AT&T’s pricing covers only U.S. residents. While iPhone prices will drop outside the U.S. too, it was not clear whether other carriers would raise monthly fees to compensate.

AT&T also warned that it will take an earnings hit due to the pricing because new subsidies it agreed to pay will produce the iPhone price cut _ not a reduction from Apple.

Apple said in a regulatory filing that under most of its new carrier agreements, it will not receive a share of subscribers’ monthly service fees as it has under contracts for the first-generation iPhone.

Jobs said Apple waited to improve the iPhone for use on the faster network because the chips available when the iPhone first came out sapped too much battery life and were too bulky to fit the iPhone’s slim design.

The addition of global-positioning technology improves the iPhone’s accuracy in locating users. Current versions use a combination of cell-phone towers and Wi-Fi locations to help users figure out where they are.

The 1.73 million iPhones Apple sold in the first three month this year gave it a 5.3 percent share of the worldwide smart-phone market, according to research firm Gartner. Apple has been adding overseas markets gradually with carrier deals.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

© Copyright INO.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.