The Holy Grail of Crude Oil Trading
Greenspan denies blame for crisis, admits ‘flaw’
From our Media Partner Associated Press
Greenspan denies blame for crisis, admits ‘flaw’ this minute
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and MARCY GORDON
Associated Press Writers
(AP:WASHINGTON) Badgered by lawmakers, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan denied the nation’s economic crisis was his fault on Thursday but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a “state of shocked disbelief.”
Greenspan, who stepped down in 2006, called the banking and housing chaos a “once-in-a-century credit tsunami” that led to a breakdown in how the free market system functions. And he warned that things would get worse before they get better, with rising unemployment and no stabilization in housing prices for “many months.”
Gloomy economic reports backed him up. New jobless claims soared to just under 500,000 for last week, and Goldman Sachs, Chrysler and Xerox all said they were cutting thousands more workers. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial bounced erratically all day before finishing up 172 points _ after a two-day drop of nearly 750.
The financial crisis even prompted the Republican Greenspan, a staunch believer in free markets, to propose that government consider tougher regulations, including requiring financial firms that package mortgages into securities to keep a portion as a check on quality.
He said other regulatory changes should be considered, too, in such areas as fraud.
Also looking for solutions, another banking regulator told Congress the government was working on a loan-guarantee plan that could help many homeowners escape foreclosure as part of the $700 billion bailout legislation. That plan is being discussed by the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, who is pushing the idea.
Greenspan’s interrogation by the House Oversight Committee was a far cry from his 18 1/2 years as Fed chairman, when he presided over the longest economic boom in the country’s history. He was viewed as a free-market icon on Wall Street and held in respect bordering on awe by most members of Congress.
Not now. At an often contentious four-hour hearing, Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary John Snow and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox were repeatedly accused by Democrats on the committee of pursuing an anti-regulation agenda that set the stage for the biggest financial crisis in 70 years.
“The list of regulatory mistakes and misjudgments is long,” panel chairman Henry Waxman declared.
Greenspan, 82, acknowledged under questioning that he had made a “mistake” in believing that banks, operating in their own self-interest, would do what was necessary to protect their shareholders and institutions. Greenspan called that “a flaw in the model … that defines how the world works.”
He acknowledged that he had also been wrong in rejecting fears that the five-year housing boom was turning into an unsustainable speculative bubble that could harm the economy when it burst. Greenspan maintained during that period that home prices were unlikely to post a significant decline nationally because housing was a local market.
He said Thursday that he held to that belief because until the current housing slump there had never been such a significant decline in prices nationwide. He said the current financial crisis had “turned out to be much broader than anything that I could have imagined.”
Greenspan’s much-anticipated appearance before the House panel came as the Senate Banking Committee held its own hearing on what the government is doing now to get out of the mess.
Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari, who is overseeing the $700 billion financial rescue effort that passed Congress on Oct. 3, said the administration was not only working to get federal purchases of bank stock started quickly but also the program to mop up troubled mortgage-related assets. He also said the government was working to make sure that directives in the legislation to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure were being addressed.
Kashkari said the plan could include setting standards that banks should follow for reworking mortgages to make them more affordable. He said the administration was considering a recommendation to provide government loan guarantees to cover the reworked mortgages to make the program more attractive to banks.
“We are passionate about doing everything we can to avoid preventable foreclosures,” Kashkari told the committee.
The FDIC’s Bair told the same Senate panel that the government needs to do more to help tens of thousands of people avoid foreclosure.
She said the FDIC was working “closely and creatively” with the Treasury Department to come up with a plan.
Greenspan was asked to defend a variety of actions he took as Federal Reserve chairman _ resisting recommendations to use the Fed’s powers to crack down on subprime mortgages, for one. And opposing efforts to impose regulations on derivatives, the complex financial instruments that include credit default swaps, which have also figured prominently in the current crisis.
He said that outside of credit default swaps, the bulk of financial derivatives had not caused major problems. He said the boom in subprime lending occurred because of the huge demand for investment opportunities in a global economy, and he blamed the crash on a failure by investors to properly assess the risks from such mortgages, which went to borrowers with weak credit.
As for firms that package mortgages into securities, he said, “As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue.”
On the billions of dollars of losses suffered by financial institutions because of their investments in subprime mortgages, Greenspan said he had been shocked by the failure of banking officials to protect their shareholders from their bad loan decisions.
“A critical pillar to market competition and free markets did break down,” Greenspan said. “I still do not fully understand why it happened.”
SEC Chairman Cox told the House panel that “somewhere in this terrible mess, laws were broken.” And Snow said that lawmakers should have responded more quickly to his pleas for stronger regulation for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the government last month.
In the meantime, Kashkari, the Treasury official overseeing the bailout program, said there has been much progress, resulting in “numerous signs of improvement in our markets and in the confidence in our financial institutions.” Still, he cautioned, “the markets remain fragile.”
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Top Yielding Debt Free Stocks
When the market corrects like it does many people see value in stocks. But what about compaines that have low stock prices compared to their history…but a ton of debt? It’s often hard to find those companies with good potential without a lot of debt. Today I’ve asked Stockerblog.com to come and give us some insight into potential markets. Please consult with your broker, Trade Triangles, or your preferred technical indicator before making any trades. These are not trade recommendations…just great hints!
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Top Yielding Debt Free Stocks
With the extreme market volatility that has been taking place lately, investors are looking toward high yield stocks, so they have income coming in while waiting for their stocks to appreciate. In addition, investors prefer companies with no debt for additional safety. Combine those two features together, and look for the stocks with low PE ratios and low PEG ratios and you get the following list.
United Online, Inc. (UNTD) is an Internet and media services companies which owns the NetZero and Juno brands. The stock has a PE of 10 , a PEG ratio of 0.86 , and pays a yield of 9.84%.
Williams Pipeline Partners L.P. (WMZ) is a natural gas transportation and storage company. The stock has a PE of 2 , a PEG ratio of 0.24 , and pays a yield of 9.29%.
Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners L.P. (PSE) owns oil and gas properties. The stock has a PE of 5 , a PEG ratio of 0.68 , and pays a yield of 8.56%.
Starlims Technologies Limited (LIMS) creates and markets laboratory information management systems software solutions. The stock has a PE of 9 , a PEG ratio of 0.60 , and pays a yield of 7.17%.
NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) is a provider of weight management and fitness products and services. The stock has a PE of 6 , a PEG ratio of 0.34 , and pays a yield of 5.86%.
Maxim Integrated Products Inc. (MXIM) makes and sells linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits. The stock has a PE of 14 , a PEG ratio of 0.92 , and pays a yield of 5.71%.
Electro Rent Corporation (ELRC) rents, leases, and sells electronic equipment. The stock has a PE of 15 , a PEG ratio of 0.99 , and pays a yield of 5.22%.
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) is a provider of onshore contract drilling services. The stock has a PE of 6 , a PEG ratio of 0.57 , and pays a yield of 5.10%.
Christopher & Banks Corporation (CBK) designs and markets women’s apparel. The stock has a PE of 12 , a PEG ratio of 0.88 , and pays a yield of 4.67%.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a provider of automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The stock has a PE of 7 , a PEG ratio of 0.49 , and pays a yield of 4.36%.
If you like high yield stocks, you should check out the the High Yield Utility stocks and the Monthly Dividend Stocks at WallStreetNewsNetwork.com. You should also take a look at Top Yielding Defense and Aerospace Stocks.
Author owns UNTD.
Gold Futures And Coins Out Of Sync
BY TRANG HO
Posted 10/21/2008
Gold has been losing its luster as the dollar strengthens. The yellow metal fell almost 4% Tuesday as the dollar rallied to a 1 1/2-year high against the euro.
But gold still shines in some quarters. A mad rush for gold and silver coins that started in July has left dealers’ shelves across the country bare. Gold now trades with a two-tiered pricing structure.
The only coins for sale are on eBay, (EBAY) where sellers want an 18% to 35% premium. Silver coins at some dealers are fetching as much as 80% over spot prices.
Buyers also snatched up silver, platinum and palladium coins. Sales picked up 500% in July, and in September vaulted to 12 times average monthly sales as major banks collapsed, said a coin and bullion dealer who asked not to be named.
Fundamental View, A Bull Case
“With all the integrity and trust issues of the marketplace today, counterparty risks, etc., gold and silver’s ultimate status as money, as a safe-haven asset, is driving buyers into the real product,” said Peter Spina, president of GoldSeek.com.
“The safe haven for Americans is to live in the U.S. The safe haven for everyone else is get out of their currencies and buy gold,” said Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of Midas Fund, which specializes in precious metals and natural resources.
“We don’t know when (gold) will recover, but it will because global demand for commodities isn’t going away,” Winmill added.
Gold is also a “screaming buy opportunity” in his view because it’s trading at an unusually deep discount relative to the AMEX’s Gold BUGS Index or HUI. The HUI is an index of gold miners.
Technical View, A Bearish Case
A chart of gold prices provides a different view. It shows evidence that the precious metal lacks some of its safe-haven traits these days.
The spot price for gold peaked in March at $1,011 an ounce and has been trending downward ever since. It’s fallen 21% from its high and has made a series of higher lows and lower lows. The 10-week moving average crossed below the 40-week average in September and both lines point south — a bearish signal.
Long- and short-term trading signals flashed a sell signal on spot gold Thursday when it fell to $817.45 an ounce, according to Adam Hewison, president of INO.com, who trades based on his MarketClub software program. He expects the yellow metal to fall to $700 to $720 an ounce.
On the bright side, gold has held up better than other commodities since they peaked in July. Silver, as tracked by iShares Silver Trust, (SLV) has collapsed 51% from its high. Spot copper has plunged 48% from its peak of $4.06 per pound and now trades at $2.11.
Crude oil has skidded 49% from its peak of $145.66 a barrel, trading Tuesday at about $74. Gold has also held up better than the S&P 500, which trades 37% below its October 2007 high.
Hedge funds have played a role in the sell-off, Spina notes. Falling commodities prices have forced hedged funds to sell positions to meet margin calls and raise cash.
“As with nearly all markets, a massive deleveraging has been occurring, and the gold and silver markets have not been immune to this violent process,” Spina said. “There will be more victims of the fund collapse and more forced liquidations even if it requires them to sell their most desired assets like precious metals.”
A recession may spur deflation. Gold wouldn’t be a safe haven under such conditions, according to Dennis Slothower, president of Alpine Capital Management, with more than $100 million in assets under management.
“In a deflationary environment, investors want out of the market totally,” Slothower said.
He notes that in the recession of the early ’80s, gold peaked at $850 an ounce.
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Article posted on 10/21/08 by Investors Business Daily. See original posting here: http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=28&issue=20081021
A Life Changing Opportunity
I don’t think anyone would consider themselves a wild investor…except The Wild Investor! With the market swings, government bailouts, and political stumping we need some good news. I asked The Wild Investor to come and give us some good news and how we can benefit from all the news. Enjoy!
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When you think about the events that have taken place over the last year it almost feels like we are reading a book that is still being written. By the time we find a way to pull ourselves out (and we will) of this downward spiral of a market, the shelves will be littered with How I Survived the Credit Crisis Era books and paraphernalia.
You see the media has a way of exacerbating situations. While many of these outlets try to be as neutral as possible, often times they create more problems themselves than they report. We are constantly flooded with the notion that we are currently experiencing one of the worst economies since the Great Depression, soon nobody will have jobs, and all businesses will go bankrupt; however, all this couldn’t be further way from the truth. I would go as far as to say we are possibly experiencing one of the best opportunities anybody could ask for.
If you look back through history, then you will notice that many of the successful people in the world somehow found a way to be extremely profitable when nobody else could. If you delve down even further, you will notice these methods to get insanely rich were actually pretty easy and duplicatable. But if it was so easy, then how come more people didn’t profit? The answer is simple. Nobody wanted to take the risk.
Regardless of what experience you have had with the stock market, everybody can agree that there is always some sort of calculated risk. The misconception is that risk increases as the market goes down. The truth is that the risk is greater, while the market is rising.
How I have come to this conclusion is pretty simple. Lets say we are experiencing a bull run and stocks are on the rise. What happens if we decided to buy shares only to see the market suddenly turn for the worse? The higher a stock goes up; the more it can fall. Many people got trapped in this type of market just last year. We experienced huge gains, and when people finally got the courage to invest some money the market headed south.
Now lets say we are in a bear market and prices are obviously headed downwards. (like the market we are currently in). What happens if we buy some shares? There are two things that can take place. The first being the stock heads a little lower before eventually moving back up or we got lucky and correctly picked a bottom.
So you see there is less risk during a bear market. We know what the problems are, and there are really no surprises. As long as we do our due diligence and invest in solid opportunities, stocks or whatever you investment is more likely to move up, then had you bought on the rise.
The strong minded, who are able to set aside any third party news and take on that risk, will eventually be rewarded. Although the economy could still head lower, we are in a messed up time: expectations are low, but opportunities are higher.
While everybody is fleeing, the successful ones are heading towards the problem. We may be experiencing on of the worst economies, but we are also experiencing a life changing opportunity. Don’t take it for granted.
The Wild Investor – http://thewildinvestor.com
Speak Stocks – http://speakstocks.com
The video that proves it all.
Dear blog reader,
I just finished a new educational trading video on crude oil. This short video shows you all the Q3 trading signals that took place in this market. The results have been nothing short of spectacular. With gains of over $20,750 per contract, I think you’ll understand why we are so excited about our “Trade Triangle” technology and this video.
During the Q3 period we had six trades; four winners and two losers. The biggest gain was $13,160 a contract, while the biggest loss was $3,770. Q3 was a great quarter that produced fabulous results. While our Q3 results were great, what is more impressive is our “Trade Triangle” approach has consistently produced positive gains for the past five quarters. With gains of $88,450.00 per contract over that last five quarters, you can see why we believe we have the perfect balanced approach to this market. That’s what we are most proud of.
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Our Q3 results matched the market volatility and then some.
In Q3 we hit unheard of levels of volatility in the markets.
I have been trading now for over three decades and I still love it. But, I have to admit that I have never witnessed markets that were so volatile, and in many cases so unpredictable. However, I know from experience that when you have a tool that eliminates emotion and calculates positions from actual market movement, it puts the odds in your favor that you’ll come out on top.
So the question is, how did MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” Technology make out in Q3?
As you may know, we have been publishing our quarterly “Trade Triangle” results on corn, wheat, soybeans, crude oil, gold, and the Dollar Index. We’ve tracked these markets through their ups and downs and published the results on a regular basis. We have been doing this for 15 months and I’m happy, but not surprised to say that our “Trade Triangle” technology has been profitable in every quarter.
It just so happens that Q3 has turned out to be our best quarter ever. In this blog posting I have included three images. One that will show the results market by market for the past 5 quarters. The other chart shows the cumulative gains for the past 5 quarters, which is $$234,501.50. The last illustration is not a chart, but a spread sheet which displays the trading results in numeric format.
I’ve also made a short video that shows the results of trading crude oil (NYMEX_CL) with MarketClub. In this video, I’ll show you all of the trades that we made to achieve those “Trade Triangle” results. In crude oil we made a total of six trades. Out of those six trades, we had four winning trades and two loosing trades. The current margin required to trade one contract of crude oil is around $10,000. If you would have followed all our “Trade Triangle” signals, the margin required would be around $50,000. I think you would agree that this approach has shown some pretty spectacular returns during the last 5 quarters. This new video will debut on Tuesday October 21st.
I also recommend that you to take a look at our previous 2007 Q3 and Q4 results as well as the results from this year’s first two quarters. I think it proves my point that you can make money in any market when you have a game plan and you are disciplined.
If you have any questions about the “Trade Triangle” results, please give one of our customer service specialists a call at 1-800-538-7424. They can quickly set you up with a 30 day Risk-Free trial to MarketClub. This is where you can check on and replicate the same trading results shown above. You will also spot some new moves as our “Trade Triangle” technology is dynamic and instantly alerts you to price movements when they happen and not after the fact.
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Traders Toolbox: Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD)

MarketClub is known for our “Trade Triangle” technology. However, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the “Trade Triangles” to further confirm trends.
Developed by Gerald Appel, this indicator consists of two lines: a solid line called the MACD line and a solid line called the signal line. The MACD line consists of two exponential moving averages, while the signal line is composed of the MACD line smoothed by another exponential moving average.
To complete the standard calculation of the two lines, you must:
- Calculate a 12-period exponential moving average of closing prices
- Calculate a 26-period exponential moving average of closing prices
- Plot the difference between the two calculations above as a solid line. This is your MACD line.
- Calculate a nine-period exponential moving average of the MACD line and plot these results as a dashed line. This is your signal line.
MarketClub will do the above calculations for you. The MACD line is represented by a red solid line and the Signal line is represented by a green solid line. The default values for this study are set to the suggest values listed above.
The most useful signals generated from this system occur when the solid red (MACD) line crosses below the green solid line (Signal) and a sell signal occurs when it crosses above the signal line.

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You can learn more about the MACD and Gerald Appel by visiting INO TV.
“Saturday Seminars” – Elliott Wave Theory for Short-Term & Intraday Trading
Elliott Wave Theory is often seen as a tool to determine long term cycles in the markets. However, the fractal nature of Elliott Wave makes it just as useful for short-term and intraday trading. In this session, Steven will explain why Elliott Wave is an excellent tool for daytrading. He will discuss how you can make money even when you have the wrong wave count and the wrong assumptions; how Elliott Wave is forward looking and a great money management tool. He will also focus on the weaknesses of wave-based trading and how to overcome them. Finally, he will describe how intermarket analysis, when used together with Elliott wave, can add confidence to your trading analysis and final actions.
Steven Poser is President and Founder of Poser Global Market Strategies Inc., and institutional and retail advisory services firm registered as a CTA with the CFTC which also offers training in technical analysis techniques for trading and analysis professionals. Prior to forming Poser Global Market Strategies Inc., Steven spent nearly eleven years as sole U.S. technical analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York City, sitting, at various times, on the U.S. Government Bond Primary Dealer Desk, the International Bond Desk, and the Currency Desk. Before joining Deutsche Bank, he was a computer analyst for Merrill Lynch Capital Markets and the Western Electric Company, where he helped create the Y2K consulting industry with his Y2K non-compliant coding techniques. He holds a post-graduate certificate in finance, an MBA with a concentration in economics and a BA in mathematics and computer science.
Steven has become a widely acclaimed technical analyst achieving recognition for his prescient calls on the U.S. bond, currency, and stock markets. He has appeared on CNBC, is a regular guest on Reuters Financial Television and articles have appeared in publications such as Forbes, Barrons, Futures, and The International Financing Review. He took the highest honors in the Knight Ridder Financial’s trading game competition in 1996 and finished third in 1998 although he competed for only six months of the year.
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Saturday Seminars are just a taste of the power of INO TV. The web’s only online video and audio library for trading education. So watch four videos in our free version of INO TV click here.









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