S&P 500
1324.80
-5.86 -0.44%
Dow Indu
12598.55
-33.45 -0.26%
Nasdaq
2874.40
-19.36 -0.67%
Crude Oil
93.54
+0.35 +0.37%
Gold
1544.50
+11.42 +0.74%
CRB Index
289.35
+0.21 +0.06%
US Dollar
81.309
-0.033 -0.04%
Weak

So You Want to be a Trader…

Today’s guest is Chuck Young from Rebel Traders. Chuck is going to give us his insight into what it takes to become a successful and disciplined trader. I have to say that I think he nailed it…what do you think? Check it out then leave a comment, let Chuck know what you think makes a successful trader. Enjoy!

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Ask anyone who has been holding stocks for many years what the previous two years has done to their portfolios; I’m sure you will get some nasty comments. For many years everyone from professional financial advisors to our parents told us that the “buy and hold” strategy was the only real way to make money in the long term. Well I’m sure those who have been doing just that are not very happy now that nearly 50% of their portfolio has evaporated.

In the span of 9 years the U.S. markets have gone through two very ugly bear markets, and the current bear market is not yet over. So the ‘buy and hold’ people have taking a real beating in the past decade.

If you told someone 10 years ago that you were a ‘stock trader’ you might have received a strange look or perhaps a lecture about how dangerous trading stocks would be. “Listen young man… the only way to save for your retirement is to put your money into stocks and ignore it… you will have a lot of money when you retire”.  How many times have we heard something like that during our lifetime?

Today if you told someone that you traded stocks you might get an evil look because the media has painted traders as a group of people who have contributed to the massive stock market declines experienced during the current bear market. There are numerous types of traders; currency traders, hedge fund traders, and commodities traders (recall last summer the media blamed traders for the rapid rise in oil prices) just to name a few.

But actually individual traders who trade from their own homes are nothing at all like those portrayed by the mainstream media. We are market participants who look to capitalize on short term price movements, take our gains, and then move on to another trade when one presents itself.

The ‘buy and hold’ strategy has been proven to be flawed for guaranteeing that you will have enough money to retire with. The nature of the markets now requires an active involvement on your part if you are to preserve and grow your capital. And how do you actively manage your holdings? You become a stock trader.

As a stock trader you are simply managing your holdings actively. It does not mean you are buying and selling every day (that is for highly experienced day traders). It means that you use various charting tools, your understanding of chart reading, and by keeping track of trends to know what and when to buy. And by keeping a close watch on your holdings you know when the time comes to sell them and take your profits.

This is referred to as “swing trading”, or sometimes referred to as “position trading”. It means you initiate a position in a certain stock based on your analysis of the charts using healthy risk management, and then when the charts communicate that the time to sell is upon you then you exit the position. That is ‘swing trading’.

Swing trading can mean you hold a stock for a few days or a few months, regardless of the time frame the goal is the same; to capitalize on short term price movements and then get out before there is a significant change in the trend of the stock. This is an active involvement in your portfolio that helps you prevent the types of losses experienced by those who ‘buy and hold’ and walk away hoping their money will be there when they need it. And ‘hope’ is not an investment strategy; if a person relies on hope then they are prone to fail.

So now your interest is peaked, and you want to get started right away at becoming an active manager of your stock holdings, a trader. Your next step is to learn how to read charts, understanding the fundamentals of technical analysis, and get setup with the electronic broker of your choice. Now you think you have everything ready and you take your first plunge into trading. You have studied the charts, you keep an eye on the broad market trends, and then you identify the best risk to reward entry price and you ‘hit the button’, now you’re in! So you begin to watch your trade by keeping a close watch on the performance of your trade, you know where your exit price is based on your understanding of the chart, and you have a ‘stop loss’ set to protect your capital in case the stock goes against your analysis.

Things are humming along great and you spot another chart that is providing you with a great entry price and you want to take a position in that stock now. But now you have to decide if you should sell your first trade in order to move your money into the new one…   STOP.

If you ever find yourself needing to sell your stock in order to buy another then you have to stop right away. A smart trader never puts all of his or her capital into one trade at once. Placing all of your trading capital into one trade puts you on a direct course to failure.

As a trader you have to manage your trading capital by dividing it up into pieces. And only one piece can be allocated to any one trade. In this manner you reduce the risk to your overall capital. But wait you say, how can I make any decent money if I don’t go ‘all in’. You do it slowly, that’s how. If you want to be a successful trader with growing funds that enables you to trade another day, then you must absolutely practice good trading capital management.

For example, let’s say you have $20,000 set aside to begin your trading career with. You put all $20,000 into one trade and unfortunately the trade does not work as you expected and you end up taking a 4% loss on the trade. Now you are left with an $800 hole in your account. But, had you divided up your trading capital into 10 pieces now that same trade would result in a loss of only $80 because you only had $2,000 on the trade.

But you say this will take forever for me to make any money. You say that I want it faster. If you become impatient then you will fall into the trap of letting greed dictate your trading system, and once you cross the line to greed then your trading plan will be prone to fail. Patience and self discipline are very important in trading; you must keep reminding yourself of that.

Getting back to your statement that ‘it will take forever’ to make any money this way. It may appear to be slow at first but following healthy capital management techniques ensures you are able to stay in the game. Remember, your gains may be small at first but for every profitable trade you add that money back into your capital pool of funds. So your next trade instead of being $2,000 now you might be able to put $2,500 into each trade. It is only a matter of time before your portfolio begins to increase rapidly, so long as you always stick to your trading rules, your capital management techniques, and your discipline.

As you expand your trading capital over time you can increase the number of slices you make in your trading capital pie. But, I never recommend anyone just starting out to try and keep track of more than 10 trades at any one time. For me I have made good money over the years using the 10% rule, occasionally I will go upwards to 20 trades at one time, but I always come back to my average of 10.

Also keep in mind that you do not have to have all 10 slices of your trading capital in the market all the time. If you only have 3 or 4 trades that is fine, remember that the smart trader waits for the best trades to come to him or her, never go chasing trades for the sake of just being ‘in the market’.

Trading can be a very rewarding endeavor, it can be fun, and it can also be dangerous if you don’t practice proper trading disciplines. And one of the most important disciplines is to manage your trading capital properly.

There are two very important rules that traders must follow:
1.    Practice capital preservation
2.    Make money

You cannot perform rule #2 if you don’t learn how to do rule #1!

Best of luck,

Charles Young

Rebel Traders

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For more on Chuck and Rebel Traders be sure to check out RebelTraders.net

Making the most of the new MarketClub Charts

Our new MarketClub charts are flying and being used by thousands of traders. Thank you for all of your compliments and feedback. We will be updating them with even more new features this weekend, to make them the best and easiest system in our industry.

We’ve just finished a video that features a walkthrough of the new features, and tips to make the most of your trading day using MarketClub charts. We know you’ll love it.

See it here.

Thanks,

Dave Maher

Co-creator INO.com and MarketClub

Why Patience and Rules are necessary in forex trading

Today I’d like everyone to welcome back Bill Poulos from ProfitsRun. Bill is launching a new forex product, Forex Profit Accelerator, and to put him to the test I wanted him to come and teach us a little more about the necessary patience needed to be a successful, yes SUCCESSFUL, forex trader. Your comments are ALWAYS welcome and needed as you help us learn more about our guest bloggers. So take a look at the article below, let the comments fly, and check out this video by Bill and let him know what you think in the comment section! See streaming video.

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Today I want to talk about the necessity of both patience and rules when trading the forex. Trading without rules (or without a trading method) is frequently a key factor in the failure of many forex traders. Without rules, a trader has no boundaries, and while at first glance the idea of ‘freedom’ from boundaries may seem a good thing, I believe that it is not.

Here are a few examples why I say that.

Without a clear set of rules to follow, the forex trader must make every ‘call’ or every decision throughout the trading process. This creates an immense amount of pressure on the trader to get every decision correct – whether it’s identifying a trade opportunity, getting in on the trade, protecting a trade position or exiting a trade.

In addition, a forex trader may find themselves frustrated or angered by a market that moves against him, or by the lack of perceived opportunities in the market, or by a trade which, once exited, runs on to create ‘lost’ profit.

The heart of the problem for the trader like this is not having a clear set of rules to help guide their trading. And the mistakes that most often occur out of this occur from a lack of patience and failing to follow their rules (one leads to the other) are:

-    Traders whose trading rules do not yield ‘daily’ trading opportunities
-    Traders without patience who rush to enter or exit a trade

I believe most traders overtrade the Forex market. They need the action – it’s almost like a drug – and without a daily trade to be taken, they seem to suffer withdrawal.  But to capture longer term moves in the forex market requires patience and timing (not timing the market, mind you, rather, timing in terms of when to enter a move). Without that patience to wait for a trend to develop, traders are rushed to find ‘any’ position – this frequently leads to breaking the rules of their trading method and bad trades.

Similarly, many traders, relieved to have a trade turn ‘profitable’ will rush to the exit doors with their small gain – only to watch the market continue in an uptrend. Although I will never tell a trader they’ve made a mistake taking a profit, I will always point out the better ways under which they can take profit and potentially profit even more. But in this case, the lack of patience to draw maximum pips from the market is frequently caused by not having a set of rules to follow when exiting the market to maximize profit potential.

Let me share a recent trade experience, and show how having patience and following the rules of your trading method can help you to defeat the emotional side of trading and grab the most potential profit from the market.

Recently a trade developed in the EUR/USD pair, which was picked up by one of my own trading methods called the Pip Reversal method. The trade would have triggered a buy position on this currency pair on March 6th at approximately the 1.2575 mark.

On March 6th, that trade would have turned profitable by nearly 200 pips – in just one day – but the trading rules of this method are what I want to focus on for you today.

In most cases, what I would see are traders exiting their position completely and taking their profit – and that’s certainly not a bad thing. But what many traders miss would be what I call “mega-moves” in the forex markets – and when traders don’t adhere to the rules of their trading programs, they typically will miss these moves.

An Exit Strategy that I use calls for exiting ½ of the position at a pre-determined price level equal to 1 ATR. On March 6th, that would have yielded 179 pips. But my strategy then calls for letting the second ½ of the position run, in the event the market is involved in a major move, and then capitalizing on the move with trailing stops. Keep in mind, many different exit strategies exist, and it’s very important that you find one that works best for your style of trading. In my case, I prefer to let a part of my position run as long as possible once I’ve been able to take some profit out of the market. What happens, however, is most traders would exit their ENTIRE position at this point – and that’s ok – but as we’ll come to see, these traders can often times miss out on substantial moves because they don’t have the patience to let the market run, or they fear giving back a strong gain for an even stronger gain.

By running an increasing level of trailing stop losses, however, this particular trade, which took nearly two weeks to complete, would have culminated in an unusual, but substantial move on March 18th, amounting to nearly 900 total pips.

At this point in the trade, I have a whole new set of exit options: I can take complete profit or, I can set a new level of trailing stops.

Either way, the potential gain in this trade for any trader was substantial – but many would have missed it because on previous days, when the markets had smaller moves, or backtracked, here’s what I see most traders doing:

-    They panic and exit the trade too early
-    They set their stop losses so tight, they virtually guarantee they’ll be stopped out

This is why the rules of any trading method are so important. Traders make such mistakes because they allow their emotions to get the better of them, rather than letting the ‘rules’ of their method define their trades.

So stick to the rules of your trading method – whether it’s how to identify a trade opportunity, when to get in on a trade, when to get out, or how to protect your trade – your method should guide you in all aspects of your trading opportunities and instill the patience and discipline that you undoubtedly need to succeed in the markets today.

Bill Poulos

Forex Profit Accelerator

A Generational Breakthrough For Traders … Charts That Talk!!

Check out our “New Talking Charts” technology here.

Let us know what you think. Comment on this blog.

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

P.S. The new MarketClub charts are now live as of 1:54 am. Enjoy.

Sneak Peek At Our New MarketClub Charts

This week we have something very special to show you. We are pulling back the curtains to give you a sneak peek at MarketClub’s new charting program.

There’s nothing to buy, so all you have to do is look and listen. Did I say listen? How can you listen to a chart? Well, these patent pending charts include our new “Talking Chart” feature.

Can you imagine a chart that actually talks to you and tells exactly what’s going on in any market you are looking at or following?  Well, now you don’t have to imagine anymore as this is valuable feature is available at no extra cost in the latest version of MarketClub.

In addition to our “Talking Chart” feature, we have also improved our “Trade Triangle” technology so that it is even more powerful than before.

I think you’ll be impressed. Please take a few minutes out of your day to see how our new charts are revolutionary in many ways.

Please feel free to contact us on our blog about these new charts. We expected to go live with them any day now and you’re going to love them.

All the best,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

P.S.  To celebrate our new charts we are going to give the first 50 new annual subscriptions an extra three months to our MarketClub service. You need to call us to get this special offer: 800-538-7424. 410-867-2100.  If you’re thinking of joining MarketClub there’s never been a better time to do it.

Two Markets, Two Different Directions

In our new video we are going to be looking at two different markets that are headed in two different directions.

We recently looked at the equity markets and alerted you to some very important levels that we thought the markets would have problems with. Those levels have now been reached and it remains to be seen if we are going to see the kind of market action that we were looking for.

The second market were looking at is the crude oil market. This market has recently come alive to the upside and bear watching.

This is a short video, but it may contain the blueprint for these two markets. No registration is required to watch this video.

Enjoy,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Senator Dodd, Why Don’t You Be A Man, Admit Your Mistake And Resign

Senator Dodd you accepted $223,000 from AIG in campaign contributions, you changed the language in the bill to provide a loophole for AIG and then say some mysterious White House administration official told you to do it. Then you try and back pedal and squirm out of what you did. How dumb do you think the American people are?

Senator Dodd, why don’t you be a man, admit your mistake and resign. You have been at your post long enough, its time to move on.

Read the whole sordid, sickening story here.

Please fell free to comment.

ETF Talk: Is China’s Great Wall of Growth Showing Cracks?

As many of us know China is becoming a bigger shareholder in the US then our citizens, which scares some and for good reason! But what does the long term look like for China? Whatever it is, it now directly impacts the US, so I’ve asked Doug Fabian to come and give us his thoughts on the ETF’s that track China and the indexes. If you are interested in ETF’s of ANY type, then I HIGHLY recommend you read the article below and check out Doug’s newsletter HERE. I’m a member of his Mutual Fund Lemon List as I was a big believe in mutual funds. So enjoy the article and learn more about Doug HERE.

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For the last 30 years, the economy that has achieved the fastest and most consistent growth in the world may well be China’s. Despite the current global recession, the Chinese economy still grew 9.8% in 2008. It marked the first year of single-digit percentage growth for the country since 2003, after notching double-digit percentage growth between 2003 and 2007.

Chinese government officials claim that their nation contributed more than 20% to the world’s economic growth last year. They also optimistically forecast economic growth of at least 8% for this year. However, a number of independent private sector estimates, including those from Economist magazine and the International Monetary Fund, estimate China’s economic growth will fall below 7% and possibly slip to 6%. A fear exists that civil unrest may occur if the growth rate dips below 8%, since economic weakness typically boosts unemployment. With relatively high growth rates, compared to other countries, investors may wonder if China could offer a hedge against recessionary conditions elsewhere.

If 2008 is any indication, investors should tread cautiously before going either long or short in the Chinese market. Despite the country’s growing economy, history shows that the correlation between global stock markets increases during times of recession. As the Dow fell 33% last year, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 65%. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that follows 25 companies on the Shanghai stock exchange, fell 47.76% last year. If you were shorting the Shanghai stock exchange through UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP), you would have lost 53.61%. You might expect a short ETF to turn a profit if the stock index that it tracks plummets but China certainly did not follow that pattern last year.

Despite the positive spin that Chinese government officials are giving to the country’s economic outlook, it is hard for me to belief that its stock market is ready to rebound. But that hasn’t stopped its leaders from expressing renewed confidence in its economy. The Chinese government reported last week that its industrial output last year rose by 5.7%, while its retail industry grew by 17.4%, year-on-year. In addition, China has nearly $2 trillion in reserves and a low debt-to-GDP ratio of 18%, compared to 80% in the United States and 160% in Japan.

On the other hand, other economic signs indicate a significantly slowing economy in China. Its exports fell in February by a whopping 25.7%. Millions of people have been left jobless and thousands of export firms have closed shop. With consumer prices falling, some analysts are discussing the possibility of deflation in China.

Since investors hate uncertainty, China is not looking very enticing right now. Of course, if investors decide stock markets around the world have been pounded enough and the current bear market rally may be a sign that the worst is behind us, China’s beaten down stock market could rally as strongly as any around the globe.

Personally, I am not yet ready to move into China either long or short. If you, however, think that the Chinese market has bottomed out and that its government stimulus spending will give the Chinese economy a boost, you may want to consider going long. For those who expect more fallout in the Chinese market this year, you may be tempted to put a little money into a short ETF. But if you’re like me and you dislike losing money and investing without a clear market direction in sight, you can monitor these ETFs from the sidelines along with the Fabian team.

LONG: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI)

PowerShare Gldn Dragon Halter USX China (PGJ)

SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC)

SHORT: Ultrashort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXP)

Doug Fabian

If you want guidance about which ETFs to trade and when, check out my ETF Trader service by clicking here.

Inflation/Deflation Uncertainty

Our government continues to CRUSH the value of the dollar so I asked Adam Katz from PlusEV.ca to break down the current situation. I’ve read the article and it provides a great view of what’s going on, how we got here, and the nuts and blots (his words not mine). So please enjoy the article and COMMENT as Adam Katz and I are looking forward to your thoughts!

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I have received many emails over the past few months proclaiming that inflation is an obvious result of the current government intervention and that the dollar’s days are numbered. As a nuts and bolts kinda guy, I like to step back and analyze the situation from point A to B, instead of staring at fancy charts which can usually be used to prove just about anything.

Before I get into the discussion, let me say that the focus of this article is timing more so than theory. To argue that we will never see inflation after the tricks central bankers have been pulling would simply make no sense. Yet, I was surprised last year to see some really good traders position themselves for an inflation trade in the middle of serious disinflation. After all, what the Fed was doing MUST have been inflationary! Right?

Firstly, what are the ingredients for credit expansion?

1)    Central banks expanding the money supply
2)    Banks lending that money out
3)    Credit worthy borrowers

Now we all know that we can place a big fat check mark next to (1), but what about the other ingredients? Putting money into the banks is easy; getting it into circulation is hard in a ‘fairly’ transparent system. Consider for a moment Zimbabwe, a country that has suffered unimaginable inflation. Do you think Robert Mugabe is subtle about expanding the money supply? He has the luxury of simply handing out money to his cronies and directly flooding the money supply. In countries like the U.S., such actions would be very difficult. China on the other hand can simply make large loans to government held businesses and thus expand the money supply.

The U.S. has been creative. For example, the AIG bailout after the Lehman collapse resulted in a transfer of government funds from AIG to large investment banks in the form of margin calls. When AIG’s credit rating was downgraded, they were forced to post margin with their counterparties. Yes this saved AIG, but it also saved those banks that were using AIG to hedge their risky trades with CDS contracts. The capital found its way into the banks, but never made it any further.

Now people are complaining. The stupid banks that made stupid loans have been bailed out. So why aren’t they lending? Why aren’t they making loans to borrowers who are not credit worthy? I hope my sarcasm wasn’t missed. To encourage banks to make bad loans is the most irresponsible thing that we can do. The point of the bailouts was to prevent financial collapse, not to continue the fundamentally flawed system.

Now we are seeing the economic follow through effects of both a credit and a housing bubble bursting. What is likely is that the credit worthiness of borrowers decreases and so will the banks willingness to make loans. Money won’t flood the markets – in the developed countries.
In the emerging markets, currency devaluation and sovereign defaults are alive and well. In fact, even Switzerland, the icon of monetary responsibility has engaged in devaluing their currency. If that’s not symbolic of the end of an era then I don’t know what is. My point is that the U.S. will continue to be a safe haven. As long as threats of further economic downside looms, the U.S. will continue to be perceived as the safest option – on a relative scale. Inflation will strike emerging markets long before it hits the U.S.

And when that happens, the U.S will be able to afford to allow their currency to weaken on an absolute basis because on a relative basis it will appear stronger than many of it’s peers. When risk appetite picks up, as it has done the past few days, the dollar will weaken. In the future, that pattern will coincide with the banks making more loans, and inflation will become a threat. However, that’s unlikely to happen any time soon, at least according to Meredith Whitney. She estimates that banks will cut $2.0 trillion of credit-card lines in 2009 and a total of $2.7 trillion will be cut by the end of 2010. That doesn’t bode well for inflation advocates, at least in the short term. This gives the Fed more than enough time to shrink the amount of funds that they have made available to banks and calls into question further asset price deflation over the coming 18 months.

I will leave you with the following basic economic concept: It is unexpected inflation, not expected inflation that causes havoc in the economy. With the current outlook of low or negative inflation for years to come, a sudden shift to high inflation would be devastating for the economy.

Adam Katz
www.PlusEV.ca

We got our bailout money … did you get yours!!

I was lucky enough to convince Bob, who heads up advertising, and Lindsay who is our director of new business to join me as we head to Washington to pick up our bailout checks. Enjoy.

Try JibJab Sendables® eCards today!

From all the staff at MarketClub and INO.com who bolted when I asked them to volunteer for this video spoof on Washington.

Happy St. Patrick’s day.

It looks like we are going to need the luck of the Irish to get out of this recession.

Enjoy, reflect and laugh out loud … It’s good for you.

All the best,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

Co-creator, MarketClub

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