Is the S&P about to fall out of bed or is it headed higher?
In my latest video I hope to answer those questions and show you what I think could happen to this market in the near-term.
There is a fascinating cycle at work that I want to share with you. If this cycle remains in effect, we could be looking at the beginning of a turn-down for this index.
As always our MarketClub videos are free to watch and there is no need to register and we’d love hearing your feedback on this video on our blog.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Adam,
I’ve been expecting the S&P to fall over for a few months now. While I am somewhat new to technical analysis, I know that the index has be rising on lower volumes and in the face of a declining MACD, which could be considered a bearish divergence. The analogy that I use is that we keep adding another floor to the house, while the foundation keeps getting smaller. I think we all know what the end result will be.
While traders have to play the chart, the macro-economic issues that still face us are of great concern.
Anthony
(1) Markets have always, repeat ALWAYS moved prior to the fundamentals turning positive. Market bottomed in ’32 yet the economy bottomed in ’34. Market bottomed Dec. ’74 with the economy bottoming between the 2nd and 3rd quarter of ’75. (2) There have been three major periods where the P/E fell blow 10 with the last being in the ’70′s and ’80′s. We will be there again. (3) Volume has always increased at the bottoms of major sell-offs (capitulation) and with a rising market (accumulation). Volume has been decreasing as the market has been rising.
So whats your point? is the low volume and indicator that the market should pull back significantly or are you saying the market will continue to climb because the market always move up prior tio the fundamentals turning postive. Please clarify in laymans terms. Thanks!
Shawn,
The major trend in all the equity indices is positive and has been since April.
What I pointed out in the video is that we might be at an inflection point as all the indices have retraced back to key Fibonacci levels. We do not yet have a sell signal for any of the indices.
If you are long, stay long in you are not yet in the market it might be smart to remain on the sidelines.
All the best,
Adam
Adam,
Thanks. You’re more right than wrong by a long-shot. From a traders perspective that makes us winners. Keep up the great work.
cheers
Al
Leo,
Should be posted tomorrow.
Thanks,
Adam
Gold is going to 1300 and the Dow is going to 11350 before reversal.
Thanks
Hey Jack,
Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International counts the waves differently. He sees this rally as a Wave 2, and we are about to go into a big Wave 3 down.
Bob Prechter is getting old. He was my teacher back in the 1980′s, and I find that he has forgotten his own rules on wave theory. I will never forget this date. September 26th 1986. That is the date he called for a market meltdown. We all know that 1987 was a correction, but the meltdown only happened in 2000. My Wave counts called that date correctly, and I have called the present upward move correctly. Wave C is OVER. The market is in a major BULL trend.
Jack,
Thanks for your feedback.
I have been in the business along time and I can guarantee you this. No one is right all the time including me. Even our Trade Triangle technology which by the way has been long the equity markets since April is wrong at times. It is just the way things are.
All the best,
Adam
Adam, how about an updated review on crude oil.
Why are the posts not appearing here? I think I’m going to give up posting, very strange way of listening to people if posts need to be read, changeg, or just simple ignored.
The market hasn’t traded on fundamentals for the last 3 months.
Elaine Garzarelli says 60% of market move is momentum – 10% fundamentals. PHd in Economics
should I buy c
Adam,
Is the S&p video having trouble transmitting. It stalls at the same point and I’ve tried to watch it from two different computers. Please advise.
Thx.
Shawn
Shawn,
All good on this end. You may want to update your flash player at Adobe.com.
Thanks
Adam
This EDUCATION video was produced on Nov. 9th. Today is Nov. 19th. The market actualy went UP since Nov. 9th. The anticipated outlook did not materialize. The market is diping today, the anticipated move arrived late perhaps.
John,
Please view the video again.
Look at the top right hand corner and see the date 11/16/09. That is when the video was made. It was published the next day.
Thanks,
Adam
Sir….. My Elliott Wave counts show that Wave 3 of WAVE I was less than Wave 1 of WAVE I. This means that Wave 5 of WAVE I will be less than Wave 3 of WAVE I, WHICH ALSO MEANS THAT THE WAVE II CORRECTION expected sometime in May will be a failure. SO…. No market collapse… at the most, approx 10% from a new high that is forming. The WAVE II correction should end sometime in October 2010, and could even extend into 2011. The latter ties in with Kondratieff Wave predictions.
So Relax… and BUY on the dips…. till May of course, then sell and enjoy your holiday.
Thanks for your message. Please am still waiting to see the fruit of this. As no one labors in vain.
Adam, if this market goes down to the levels you are projecting on the S&P and the Dow, then gold and all commodities will also come down hard, so your video of a roaring gold bull market is wrong…There are no fundamentals for the dollar to rise because the monetary policies of the FED have not changed, well, unless something happens that sends the dollar up big, I don’t know that. But in any case, Gold has been moving higher with all commodities and the market and against the dollar moving lower.
Also your previous video that was very bullish on oil was also mistaken. What is going to send this market lower for real?
Debbie,
Thanks for your feedback.
This is what makes a market different opinions.
All the best,
Adam
Everyone talks of the markets going down or up. What should be considered as a distinct possibility is a range bound sideways market similar to Japan after their real estate implosion and what happened to us after the S&L crisis.
That being said I suggest Market Club strongly consider trade triangles for the 30 – 60m time frame as short term intraday to short multi-day trades will be the trading opportunity for range bound markets. And I suggest that more inter-market analysis be conducted by Market Club’s experts for their paying subscribers.
Best,
Raymond
Raymond,
Stay tuned. We are working on some exciting short-term (30-60) indicators in real-time.
Thanks for your feedback.
Adam
Adam has been on the wrong side of this market sinse the march lows. Remember- S&P 400 to 500
FALL OUT OF BED. This market is not strong on a fundamental or technical basis. the higher we go the harder we are going to fall.