Tuesday Aug 4th, 7:53PM EDT
INO.com Traders Blog
Expert Charts, Trading Tips and Technical Analysis from INO.com
Enter Long position on a New Monthly Trade Triangle for the CME_INX @ 1,131.23
SPX 1150 remains a tough resistance. This price level represents 61.8% retracement as well the high tip of the right shoulder. Expect a pullback this week. The nature of the pullback in the coming days will determine whether the uptrend will resume or it has finished. We all are familiar with the market surging upward before earnings season and pulling back during the first couple of weeks of earnings announcements. We may see this scenario happening again.
So , now it is back to short ?
This way I like
When I go short on trade triangles, I lose
When I go long on Trade triangles, I lose
so , now I will go short until the 1107 - 1090 area .,.. I wonder if I will be 3 and out.
I can go pick money off the money tree in the back.
Oh wait, summer ended, recovery summer is over. Darn
We are still in a Long Position for the S&P 500. keep in mind that we are looking to be in this trade Long-term. We are not worried about a few down days as we are looking to the Long-term Trend to continue up.
Head of Technical Support
MarketClub and INO.com
The 61.8% retracement turned out to be a tough resistance. Expect a pullback to 1107. Next support level sets at 1090. A close below 1090 will turn the market to bearish again and a test of 1041 with possibly a move lower.
To me it is certainly is a head & shoulder formation and it also coincide with 61.8% retracement from April high to July low. It looks like it is going to be a tough resistance area. The daily momentum is still pointing upward and there is no signal whatsoever indicating it is changing yet. Patience and caution is required.
I hope everyone should understand this is a mixed market and control by big guys. I notice that all technical analysis are useless in this crazy market. The market is going north and suddenly back to south, making you do not know where to go. It seems everyone lose confidence. Even though you buy put and call, you have to suffer. So the only thing is " keep away " until a clear picture can be seen. You know we are all " meat " for the sharks.
Can someone tell me if this is a head and shoulders on the S&P weekly chart with the left shoulder being January, the head in April, and the right shoulder today? Thanks
DING DING DING
Round one....... in this corner - TRADE TRIANGLES.. who called Market to short at 10,000 ....
in this corner, we have David Hunt, of Hunter Profit Group , Elliot wave ....
he says MARKET top
LETS GET ready to ruuuuummmmble
YES, THANK YOU , I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHAT ABOUT THE TRADE TRIANGLE THAT SAID
SELL , AND SINCE THEN , IT HAS BEEN UP 7 %
NOW, WE HAVE 10 UP DAYS, AND U SAY TRADE TRIANGLES SAYS BUY .... U WANT ME TO BUY AFTER A 5.5% MOVE ?
TRADE TRIANGLE BE DRINKING SOME PUNCH .
As an Elliot Wave enthusiast I take note when an Elliot Wave specialist, with a reputation for being accurate when calling significant market turns, makes a call. David Hunt, of Hunter Profit Group, is calling this market to top this week, 23/24 Sept.
I looked at most of the comments on this alert. I would join some others and say to be very careful
entering long positions at these levels. SPX is getting close to testing 61.8% retracement from April High to July low. I watch all Adams videos on market forecast and he puts much weight on Fibo levels which I certainly agree with. Market club algorithm says to go long, but I am not convinced. Let’s see what will happen at 61.8% (SPX 1144 – 1146) which is also max price level of the right shoulder.
You cannot, despite MC's claims take these signals blindly. The Monthly triangle, imo, is giving the earliest signal that the long term trend has changed back to the long side. MC's signals "decide" this because the S&P touched the 3-mo high at 1131.23. But note not only did the S&P close poorly, but we are about 13-15 days off the last major low without a significant pullback. While certainly the S&P could move higher here, it is definitely a higher-risk entry (imo). I've been trying to determine in these cases (as you'll see many cases of Monthly triangles triggering after a meltdown or sharp rally) if it's better to wait for at least a 3-day low (red Daily triangle) and THEN enter if the daily green triangle appears. Even then, MC signals have a tendency to get you in higher than if you wait for a significant formation, particularly if it touches a moving average or other support zone in a pullback (i.e. a hammer off the 50 day MA or something similar). I think the key thing MC offers here is that if you were looking to go short big time, you should only do so short term (i.e. anticipating a pullback). Otherwise, you should wait for a pullback before entering. Either way, hedging with put options, using (yuck) stops or other techniques (don't put all your money on the SPY or similar looking chart in at the same time, even if the market DOES take off) would be recommended.
I am not sure. It seems that technically the SPY has reached its peak and enter its supply zone. Do you think that to short it is more profitable ?
This one will get whipsawed just like the gold trade did.
Also, dont forget Adams advice about using your weekly charts. If unsure reduce your leverage or watch on the sidelines.
Beware of buying swing highs or selling swing lows, when ones emotion is swayed by a sure thing.
Been there before, got the tee shirt, and a very expensive tee shirt it is too
What happened to Bear alert?
Is this a reversal of the Aug. 16 signal that Adam reported?
This monthly signal may have occurred but caution is needed for the following reasons, which I believe will show this to be a 'Bull Fake.'
1. This week's Committments of Traders report show that the Commercial Traders ( smart money) have turned bearish on the S&P 500 (they have been bullish throughout this rally).
2. The Small Traders (dumb money) have become increasingly bullish in the same report(they have been bearish throughout the rally).
3. Yesterday the FTSE 100 (which seems to be leading the S&P 500) gapped up, hit 5611 (a 78.2% retracement of the fall from the April high (in what in Elliott Wave terms would seem to be a Wave 2 Extended Diagonal correction up) then reversed and closed at the day's low creating a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick, a classic market top pattern.
All the above are sell signals. If the S&P 500 has not topped yet, it soon will do.
It seems odd that the monthly trade triangle has given a buy signal, just when the Commercial Traders (smart money) have given a sell signal on the S&P 500, in this week's Committments of Trader's report, having been long for the whole of this rally. Additionally, the FTSE 100 gapped up on Friday and rose rapidly to 2611 (78.2% retracement from the April high) then rapidly fell all day to it's lows at 5508, creating a 'Bearish Engulfing Candle' a classic sell signal at a market top. The FTSE 100 led the S&P 500 down in April, may it be doing this again? My guess is that this buy signal is a classic 'Bull Fake, especially as sentiment indicators from Small Traders (dumb money) are once again reaching bullish peaks, and are at bullish extremes in the Committments of Traders report this week - a classic sell signal.
jeremy, does this alert override the s&p 500 short trade triangle video of a few weeks ago? Also, i recognize the inx as being the S&P, what is the cme and what does it have to do with the trade?
EWhat is CME_INX? How do I trade it?
I would sure love to hear you comment on the S&P and Dow this weekend....looks like they both broke the upper (bearish) trendlines(from the April top) as of today's close. Could this be a head fake? Do we need to wait for next week for the confirmation, or just get long with tight stops on the indicies?
I felt like I was waiting for more of a downtrend below what we got from the April-August selloff. And the macro stories around the world look worse as of today, not better.I dont think the market has priced in Q2 GDP growth at 1.3%--seems like 2% is priced in. As for the stocks themselves..even Fedex warned, to my viewing of the matter. What say you Adam? just hearing your read of the macro situation would be helpful, dispite technical signals which seem to, at the moment be contrary to the macro data. Best Regards, Kathryn Blair
I am looking at today's SPY and I don't see any alert. There was an alert back 9/14 @113.20. Am I doing something wrong?
I would be soooo careful going long S&P500 right here! Market club should publish the weekly reversal level so members know where to place stops already.
Jeremy, what etf would you recommend to participate in the S&P
We use the ETF's SPY for the S&P 500. As you may know it's one of the ETF's in our Perfect Portfolio.
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