S&P 500
1307.43
+12.21 +0.94%
Dow Indu
12452.97
+83.59 +0.68%
Nasdaq
2815.27
+36.48 +1.31%
Crude Oil
92.47
+0.67 +0.73%
Gold
1591.90
-6.10 -0.38%
CRB Index
290.00
-0.43 -0.12%
US Dollar
81.193
-0.099 -0.13%
Strong

Traders Toolbox: Reversals Revisited

Trader's Toolbox

At MarketClub our mission is to help you become a better trader. Our passion is creating superior trading tools to help you achieve your goals — no matter which way the markets move — with objective and unbiased recommendations not available from brokers.

The Trader’s Toolbox posts are just another free resource from MarketClub.

Image Reactions Within A Downtrend

“Reversals In my opinion, one of the most misused and abused terms in technical analysis is the reversal or key reversal. I often get calls from both new and experienced traders who are excited about a market because it has just posted a “key reversal.” While the action these traders point to often marks a reversal day, such a day (week or month) by itself actually has little significance. There is research which indicates single period reversals mark a turn only about 50% of the time. Which gives about the same odds of indicating a turn using a coin flip…”

Revisit the Trader’s Toolbox Post: “Reversals” here.

Looking back on gold…

Adam has created countless trading videos throughout the years. One in specific was recorded in February of 2010 regarding cycles in the future price of gold. Let us refresh your memory…click here.

Now that you have the back story and the video to prove it, let us share with you an article that was published by The Street yesterday afternoon:

Over the course of the past few months, one large buyer has accumulated approximately 50,000 gold call option contracts — most of the calls are strikes between $1,600 and $1,800 an ounce and for expirations between August and December. In total, as much as $50 million in call premium has been paid out by the purchaser.

As the gold futures market is roughly 10x to 15x the size of the gold options market, this is a huge bet in absolute dollars relative to the liquidity of the market.

Considering that the calls are well out-of-the-money (gold, on a futures basis, today trades at $1,512), the call option is all premium and, as such, is a decaying asset. So, given the size of the purchase, the buyer is not likely an individual hedge fund — more likely, it is a central bank or a sovereign fund.

It is interesting to note that all of the buyer’s options mature after QE2, so the buyer might believe, for example, that the institution of QE3 holds a greater probability to be implemented than the consensus is currently forecasting.

The buyer is clearly betting on a large run-up in the price of gold during the summer and fall months.

With all this leverage in the hands of one owner, a sharp price appreciation in the price of gold could cause the shorts (on the other side of the call option trade) to continuously buy futures and further contribute to a rising gold price in order to maintain a flat delta. –

We read this article, and thought to ourselves, “Why does this prediction look so familiar?” Then we remembered…

WE PREDICTED THE SAME THING IN 2010!!!

We hope that you listened to our “Trade Triangles” and got your piece of the fifty-million dollar pie. If you’ve been wondering what MarketClub can do for you…now you know!

Best,
The MarketClub Team

1PM Recap

Hi, Adam Hewison here with MarketClub. Here is a recap of your 1 p.m. market update for Wednesday the 25th of May.

Here’s what’s happening in the major markets … [Read more...]

Trader’s Toolbox: Support and Resistance Revisited

Although many of you will find this lesson in one of the most basic concepts of market behavior “old hat”, it never hurts to review. One of the first things a new trader is told (I hesitate to say learns as many never do) is to buy a breakout above resistance and sell a fall through support.

Resistance is the level which holds a market down, while support is an area which props up a market much like a ceiling and a floor. The key is to identify the critical levels. There are a number of methods to determine support and resistance: trendlines, moving averages, retracements, Gann angles, etc. However, simple observation can be an effective means of locating the important areas. A quick glance at the October cotton chart reveals the most basic levels of support and resistance (broken lines).

A previous high often provides resistance, while an earlier low tends to offer support. Support or resistance levels are not necessarily flat. For example, trendlines reveal areas of rising support or falling resistance. Also, when broken, uptrend lines offer a new level of rising resistance, while the opposite is true for downtrend lines. In fact, virtually any broken area of support will become resistance and vice versa. After breaking a level of support (or resistance), the market commonly comes back to test that level before resuming the downmove (upmove). This may be the single most effective method of locating low-risk entry points for trading purposes. This lesson may seem like wasted space to the experienced. However, it is amazing how often traders simply forget (or ignore) the power of basic support and resistance levels. This concept can be very profitable, but it may be just too “easy”.

1PM Market Update for 5/24/11

Hi, Adam Hewison here for MarketClub. Did you miss your 1 p.m. market update for Tuesday the 24th of May? Catch up now!

Here’s what’s happening right now in the major markets …

S&P 500: -60. Only the longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains intact at this time. Short-term market trend is down. Market at the lower end of the Donchian Channel. Neutral – Major Support at 1,295-1,300.Would not be surprised to see a possible bounce.

Silver: Score +55. Today’s action favors more of a recovery on the upside. Spot market moved over 36.00. Bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator confirmed. Near term support at 34.25. Major Support at $32.00. Major resistance at $39.50. Short-term rally potential up to 42.00.

Gold: Score +70. Longer term trend remains positive. The $1,520 was broken today and a close over this area indicates more upside action. Support at $1,500, $1,475 and $1,462.50. Market Trending higher.$1,533 is a 62% Fib retracement.

Crude Oil: +80 Trading range. Long term indicator remains positive. Resistance at 100.80 basis July. Choppy market. Bullish divergence confirmed on the Williams %R indicator.A close over $100 basis July is needed to drive prices higher.

The Dollar Index: Score +60. In a very broad trading range with the longer term Trade Triangle remaining in a negative position. Index reversed from resistance at the 76.50 level. Major resistance remains at 77.50. Minor support at 75.00. Possible “Dark Cloud Cover” forming today and a Negative divergence on the Williams%R indicator.

The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: Score +55. Near-term resistance at 344.00. Minor support at 335.00. Market oversold. Bullish divergence building on the Williams %R indicator. Trade Triangles are negative on this market.

Join me again tomorrow at 1:00p.m. ET for your LIVE and actionable update!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

1PM Update (5/23/11)

Hello, Adam Hewison here for MarketClub. I hope you were able to join me for today’s market update. If not, all is not lost. Watch the video below to get caught up!

Here’s what we covered in the major markets …

S&P 500: -70. Only the longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains intact at this time. Short-term market trend is down. Market at the lower end of the Donchian Channel. Neutral – Major Support at 1,295-1,300.

Silver: Score -55. Stuck at -55 as it continues to move sideways. Spot market needs to move over 36.00 to give this market upward momentum.Bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator. Near term support at 34.25.Major Support at $32.00. Major resistance at $39.50.

Gold: Score +70. Longer term trend remains positive. All eyes are on $1,520 0n the upside. A close over this level propels market higher. Support at $1,490, $1,475 and $1,462.50. Resistance at $1,526. Market Trending higher.

Crude Oil: +70 Trading range. Long term indicator remains positive. Resistance at 100.80 basis July. Choppy market. Possible bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.SUPPORT AT $96.00 for the July contract.

The Dollar Index: Score +70. In a very broad trading range with the longer term Trade Triangle remaining in a negative position. Minor resistance at 76.50 and major resistance remains at 77.50. Minor support at 75.00

The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: Score +55. Near-term resistance at 344.00. Support at 327.50. Market oversold. Bullish divergence building on the Williams %R indicator. Trade Triangles are negative on this market.

Join me again tomorrow at 1:00p.m. ET for your LIVE and actionable update!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

If you “snooze” you lose!

If I wasn’t still getting a steady stream of emails after reminding you of the prediction challenge, I would feel like that pesky alarm that you dread as your morning wake up call. Well consider this your final hit to the “snooze button!” We are embarking on the last week of the contest.

Contest? What contest, you ask? Wipe the sleep from those beautiful eyes of yours, charge that battery, and show everyone that you deserve to be a “trillionaire”, “the smartest man/woman of the universe”…and at the very least, the winner of an Android Tablet!

Email Jennifer@ino.com to submit your genius predictions for the DJI and DX for the end of QE2.

Still confused? Get caught up here!

Weekend Update: 5/21/11

I just finished your weekend update. Watch now to analyze the trends from the week!

Click here to view MarketClub’s full Livestream library

We hope you enjoy the weekend update, and that you leave your thoughts in our comment section. See you Monday (5/23/11) at 1pm ET!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

4 Ways Options Are Better than Stocks

Just why are options so great in the first place? If you’re still on the fence about trying your hand at options, this is a must-read article provided by Elizabeth Harrow of Schaeffer’s Investment Research. If you enjoy this article and want to learn more about options you may even want to check out their options newsletter!

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Options are cheaper than stocks.

In this economy, everybody’s trying to save money. So, forgive me for pandering, but it’s a fact that options are significantly less expensive than the securities on which they’re based. Each option contract gives you control of 100 shares of equity, yet the cost to purchase an option contract is nowhere near the expense of buying an equivalent chunk of stock.

Premium: The price of an option contract that the buyer of the option pays to the option seller for the rights conveyed by the option contract.

When you purchase an option contract, you pay a premium to enter the trade. This premium is known as the ask price, if you’re buying to open, and it’s determined in the traditional manner by supply and demand.

By way of example, let’s take a look at options on imaginary retailer You-Can’t-Afford-It Stores Inc. (POSH). Let’s say POSH closed yesterday at $46.39. It would cost you $4,639 to purchase 100 shares. By comparison, POSH’s May 47.50 call closed yesterday at $1.83. (Hey, it’s my imaginary case study: I get to pick the numbers.) In other words, it would cost you just $183 to purchase this call option granting you control of 100 shares of POSH.

As fair warning, I’m not a math expert, but I’m pretty sure you could save about $4,456 by purchasing the call option rather than investing in the shares outright.

Maximize your profits through the amazing power of leverage.

In addition to being cheaper than stocks, options also provide you with the magic of leverage. This nifty feature allows you to collect profits that are, in the best-case scenario, way out of proportion to your initial investment.

Leverage: The control of a larger number of shares with a smaller amount of capital. Leverage provides an option buyer greater profit potential using fewer dollars compared to holding a long or short stock position.

Sticking with our POSH example from above, let’s say that Jill Trader purchased 100 shares at $46.39 for a total cash outlay of $4,639. Meanwhile, Susie Speculator bought to open 1 May $47.50 call for a total outlay of $183 ($1.83 x 100 shares per contract).

OK, bear with me, because we’re going to have to use our imaginations for this next bit. Let’s pretend that POSH rallies up to $55 per share by May expiration. Jill Trader unloads her 100 shares for $5,500, content in the knowledge that she’s netted a profit of $861 (which translates to 18.6% of her initial investment).

Meanwhile, Susie Speculator sells to close her option contract, which is now worth $750. Susie’s profit is $567, or 322.7% of her initial investment. Not only did Susie invest less capital than Jill, she more than tripled her trading dollars. Not too shabby, right?

And, if you can believe it, there are even more reasons why options are inherently superior to stocks…

Downside risk is limited in many option strategies.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, let’s reverse our earlier scenario. Pretend that POSH shares plunge during the next 6 weeks, and by the time May-dated options expire, they’re wallowing at $33 per share.

When you buy to open an option that expires worthless, your loss on the trade is limited to your initial cash outlay.

Our hypothetical investors have a very different reaction to the stock’s slide. Jill Trader is panicking, because she’s already lost $1,339 on paper, and the decline doesn’t show any signs of slowing. She’s faced with the choice of swallowing a big loss, or waiting it out and hoping the shares turns around.

Elsewhere, Susie’s disappointed, but not devastated. She simply allows her out-of-the-money call to expire worthless, which means that her total loss on the trade amounts to no more than her initial investment of $183. It’s not her best trading result ever, but it’s definitely a more palatable outcome than Jill’s.

Feel free to stop caring about price/earnings ratios.

At this point, I’m going to stop throwing math problems at you. Frankly, I find it exhausting, and I’m quite sure my endlessly patient colleague, Jocelynn Drake, is tired of checking my numbers. However, we will be discussing a few specific figures, namely: price/earnings ratio, price/book ratio, price/sales ratio… the list goes on.

Now, if you’re used to investing in stocks, you’re no doubt accustomed to researching the aforementioned ratios. These metrics offer clues as to whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued at current levels, and many traders will analyze these fundamentals before entering a position.

For all the reasons mentioned above(plus a few more), you have my full permission to throw these fundamentals out the window(well, mostly) when trading options. The fact is, these metrics simply don’t matter as much to an option trader as they do to a buy-and-hold stock investor.

Let me explain. Thanks to your lowered initial investment, as well as the magic of leverage, you have a simple goal when you buy a call option. You want the share price to rise above the strike price prior to expiration, allowing you to collect your profit and exit the trade.

So, since you’re not investing in the company for the long run, the traditional trading metrics shouldn’t have much bearing on your analysis. So what if POSH’s price/earnings ratio of 19 is higher than the average for its peer group? Even if the shares are expensive now, you can still reap a profit as long as they’re more expensive by the time your option expires.

Instead, since we want the stock’s price to make a fast, aggressive move in the right direction, we favor the Expectational Analysis method. By combining technical analysis with sentiment analysis, you can pinpoint equities that are poised to rally…or plunge, if you’re playing puts.

Of course, fundamentals do play a part. If you’re buying options ahead of earnings, you should be aware that premiums might be inflated by rising implied volatility. Or, if the pharmaceutical firm that you’re buying calls on is due to release trial data within the next week, you should definitely have that event on your radar, too.

But, beyond the basics, you can really stop sweating the fundamentals. If you love crunching the numbers, though, don’t worry. With put/call volume ratios, put/call open interest ratios, and more, there are still plenty of metrics for an option trader to play with.

Click here for 6 months free of Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor and A Crash Course in Top Gun Trading Techniques.

Best of luck to you with your options trading,
Schaeffer’s Investment Research Team

Your 1PM Update and the “52-week new highs on Friday rule”

Hello, Adam Hewison here for MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Friday the 20th of May.

Watch what’s happening right now …

As of noon today there were only two stocks we are looking at in regards to the 52-week high rule. The first was on the NYSE and it is Sprint Nextel Symbol S. The next stock was on the NASDAQ and that is Amarin Symbol AMRN. In order to qualify for the 52 week rule the stocks have to close at or close to their highs for the day. If the market closes around its midpoint it does not qualify.

Now for the 52 week short rule; we have five stocks in this category as of noon (ET) today. This of course can change before the closing bell at four o’clock (ET). Here are the stocks we’re looking at: SVNT,NBG,OMX, RDN and PMI.

These are all below $10 and should provide a nice % gain if they follow through on Monday.

Be sure to watch all of these markets at or near the close.

Here are the three rules you need to trade “The 52-week new highs on Friday rule.” These are the exact rules that Bill used to make millions!

  1. On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy long and go home long for the weekend.
  2. Exit the long position on the opening of the following Tuesday.
  3. If the market opens sharply lower on Monday, exit the position immediately.

There you have it. These are the only three rules you need to trade with “The 52-week new highs on a Friday rule” successfully.

“The 52-week new highs on a Friday rule” works extremely well in futures and in the Forex markets. This rule can be reversed for “The 52-week new lows on a Friday rule” if you are so inclined to trade the short side of the market. The same rules apply.

Now it’s business as usual:

SP500: -55. Long term uptrend remains intact. Trading Range Neutral – Resistance at 1360

Silver: Score +55. possible bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.Major resistance at $39.50.Support at $32.00.

Gold: Score +80. Longer term trend remains positive. Support at $1.475 and$1,462.50. Resistance at $1,526.Buy signal today at $1,499.83

Crude Oil: +70 Trading range. Long term indicator remains positive. Resistance at 100.80 basis June.Choppy market.

The Dollar Index: Score +55. In a trading range with the longer term outlook remaining negative. Minor resistance at 76.00 and major resistance remains at 77.50. Minor support at 74.00

The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: Score -55. Near-term resistance at 348.50. Support at 333.50. Bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.

Get a more in depth presentation HERE!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

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