Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Monday, the 12th of September.
As we mentioned at the end of August, September is a pretty treacherous month for the equity markets.
Here's what's bugging the markets at the moment:
(1) The total lack of a plan coming out of Europe for solving the sovereign debt problem.
(2) The total lack of a plan in the US to solve the unemployment problem.
Until these two very important elements are resolved, we're going to see continued volatility in all the markets. We will continue to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to "separate the wheat from the chaff," so to speak.
In the type of market that we are currently in, it is imperative to have a game plan. Emotion is the number one account killer for most traders and having a cohesive game plan removes most of a trader's emotion from these markets.
Now, let's go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 75
The S&P 500 found support at the previous lows that were established on August 26th and again on September 6th, at the 1140 area. This area is now shaping up to be an important battleground for the bulls and the bears. The Bulls need to have this area remain intact. If a bigger bear market is going to ensue, the Bears must break through this area. Our Trade Triangle technology is in a trading range with the monthly trend negative and the weekly trend remaining positive. We expect this will create more of a choppy market right now. Long-term traders should continue to maintain short positions or be out of the market completely and in a cash position. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines waiting for either a buy or sell signal based on our Trade Triangle technology.
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SILVER (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
The silver market appears to be very close to making an important low, based on our Williams % R Indicator. This market has now entered an oversold condition, however the longer-term trends for both the monthly and weekly Trade Triangles remains positive. Only the short term daily Trade Triangle is negative. We want to watch this market very carefully over the next few days and are looking for an area to add to long positions. Intermediate and longer term traders should maintain long positions in this market with appropriate stops.
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GOLD (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
The gold market continues to tighten up and we expect that we will once again see this market start moving higher. We are not sure what the catalyst will be or what the market events will be. Providing that our monthly and weekly Trade Triangles remain intact, we want to approach this market from the long side. The Williams % R is not yet in an oversold condition, however it is fast approaching an area where it found previous support back on August 24th. The $1900 level is resistance for gold at the moment. Support comes in around the $1800 area and extends all the way down to $1750. Looking at the market, it would possibly appear as though we have put in a double top. This will only be confirmed with a close below the $1750 level. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
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CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
The key level of resistance for the October contract remains at $90 a barrel. Crude oil must move over that level if it is to go higher. For the most part, we are trading between $84 on the low side and $90 on the high side. Sooner or later this will be resolved and we will rely on our Trade Triangle technology to show us the way. Presently the Trade Triangles are mixed, indicating that a trading range is intact. We would want to use tools such as the Williams % R indicator, Donchian Trading Channels and the Parabolic SAR to trade this type of market. The monthly Trade Triangle is still negative for this market. We look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner, much like it did for most of August. The longer-term monthly Trade Triangle must be given more weight than either the daily or weekly Trade Triangles.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
It would appear the dollar index has gotten a little ahead of itself on the upside and we would not be surprised to see this market regroup above the 76.50 area. Longer-term, this market looks to be poised to move much higher and we would use pullbacks certainly to the 76.60 area as a buying opportunity. This index is coming from a large energy field that is capable of carrying it quite a bit higher, possibly up to the 80.00 area. All of our Trade Triangles are positive and we expect that this market will continue to build strength to go higher from current levels.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 65
The set back that we were looking for to the 330.00 area got a little more real today as this index traded down to the 331.6 area before rallying back. With a Chart Analysis Score of -65, we think this market is trapped in a trading range and starting to possibly build an energy field to move higher. We would recommend trading this market using the Williams % R indicator and the Donchian Trading Channels. Our bias is towards inflation in the future, but we will rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology to point the way when the time is right. Intermediate and short term traders should be out of this market and on the sidelines at the present time.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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As we start the new week, I would like you to ask yourself this question: IS PERSONAL COACHING RIGHT FOR ME?
Give us a call today at 877–219–1482 for a free consultation and see if personal coaching is right for you.
But first, watch my personal invitation to you about one-on-one coaching:
http://www.marketclubcoaching.com/now/
This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tomorrow, right here at 1pm. Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Vic, if you're new, you may want to ''paper-trade'' until you start winning.
With a whip-saw, sideways, volatile market,
even the Monthly / Weekly TT's will signal a Buy at the top of the swing and a neutral at the bottom of the swing.
So therefore it is better to use the Donchian Channels & Williams %R indicators to buy on a reversal of the bottom
and a sell on a reversal at the top of the side-ways market.
(just my opinion -- after watching Adam use these indicators on his daily videos).
hello all my first time in the room, I am getting my feet wet with Day trading, and I am learning and loosing fast, but I feel I am improving my knowledge and skill and before long I will be good at this. I see the market as dealing with a lot of uncertainty and low confidence in the US governing body and its ability to effectively grow the economy, along with the uncertainty in the European Markets at large. Good news doesn't lead to prolonged growth and that is a sign of confidence. Just want to know if i am close with my assessment or way off. thanks for the advice.
Thanks in advance, Vic the new kid on the block
Ouch... Jerry... I hope this is the first and last time this happens. I feel for you so much... I hope you can develop another strategy in the future.
Simply put:..... GATT, NAFTA, Removal of Glass-Steagall, lack of funding for IRAQ 1 and 2 , Afgan., Medicare Drug Plan, TARP, and the unbelievably stupid tax cut for the Ultra Wealthy..... And you ask why we are going into the crapper? Go figure.... The Repubs have done it again.... Gezzz.... Gentlemen and Ladies, it is 1929 all over again and for the same behavior again... Big surprise, aye?
My African ag/au miner seems steady and resilient though subject to sell-offs by someone or another followed by buy-ins and sell-offs again. However it is stable and "profitable". At day's end it went positive again. SVM, presented as an ag/au miner, is basically all-Chinese with a Canadian front. Its behavior is unfathomable and is plagued by attempts at external corporate sabotage and scandalizing, accusations of really being just a pb/zn miner,(which is OK it that's what you bought it for)and which is buying back stock on grounds of being unloved and unappreciated for true value by its stockholders and others. SVM took the usual beating and in due course is likely to struggle back. Not worth selling now so wait for the miserable Sept dividend.
With the simple miserable collection I have volatility means a lot of people are scared into selling off (up to a point) which produces buy-ins at which point older holders likely decide to sell out while the getting out is better with new buyers coming in. Most of this has nothing to do with the merits of the companies so much as outside generated massive fear due to government and institutional mismanagement.
Well heck, you know, the adage is: be cautious going in and quick coming out - the reverse of what most traders practice.
President and Congress are not going to be able to MAKE jobs. This is unfortunately a lack of demand driven slow down that is a result of de-leveraging. It is unrealistic expectations ( and ignorance )that are the cause of bad decisions by our elected officials. The desire of our officials to keep their jobs and make decisions that are predicated on this need, has led to this circle jerk.
I have several stocks like NTRZ nutracia, Brt, and Ras, that are down 50 to 60%, should I wait them out or take the few thousand I can get out of them and try to recoup with something more positive.