Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Wednesday, the 26th of October.
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Don't miss MarketClub TV Tonight at 5pm EDT.
E-mail us your questions at [email protected] or call 410 867-2100 extension 129.
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It's Wednesday, do you know which way the market is headed?
What is gold telling us?
Do you think there is going to be a resolution to the crisis that continues to fester and grow in Europe?
I think everyone is pondering if the European problem is ever going to be fixed. I for one, don't believe it is going to be fixed. Now we hear that Italy is going to up the retirement age from 65 to 67, but it won't be going into effect in 2026. Who are they kidding?
If you think Greece was bad, Italy is going to be another big problem waiting to happen. Then we have Spain, Ireland and who knows who else is going to bite the dust...
These are interesting times, and they do lend themselves really well to making money. If you are watching the markets and are nimble in your choice of markets to trade, both from the long and short side, you will do very well.
Don't forget to watch MarketClub TV tonight, our one-hour show on the market. We go live at 5pm EDT, and if you can't make that time, we rebroadcast the show throughout the day on demand. That gives you the option of watching it when you have time. We will be covering some pretty interesting action on the markets that we are seeing today.
Now, let's go to the charts and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500 INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Looking Very Toppy
A lower close in the S&P 500 today will look like we're going to see further downside activity for the rest of the week. Last week, the S&P 500 closed at 1238 and we would view a close below that level on Friday as a confirmation of an interim top. Intermediate traders should be on the sidelines waiting for a new Trade Triangle signal. Long-term traders should either be in cash or continue to hold short positions in this index.
See today's S&P 500 Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Don't miss MarketClub TV Tonight at 5pm EDT.
E-mail us your questions at [email protected] or call 410 867-2100 extension 129.
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SILVER (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Is silver a precious metal, or an industrial metal?
It is hard to get excited about the silver market, as our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains negative. As stated before, silver is sometimes viewed as an industrial metal and other times it's viewed as a precious metal. I think people who want to trade these metals are probably better off looking at the gold market. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continuea to be negative based on our Trade Triangles. Long term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.
See today's Silver Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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GOLD (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Gold is in a long term bull market.
The gold market is telling us to be very concerned about what is happening in Europe. Key areas to watch for in gold on the upside are $1,724 and $1,770. Theses two levels represent 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. Long term and intermediate term trends remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's Gold Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Crude is still negative and topped out yesterday.
As outlined in yesterday's comments, we felt that the crude oil market would have problems above the $95-$100 a barrel level. Today's action to the downside certainly underscores that resistance area. Our long-term Trade Triangle continues to be negative and we expect it will once again dictate the tone of this market. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and long-term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
See today's Crude Oil Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Don't miss MarketClub TV Tonight at 5pm EDT.
E-mail us your questions at [email protected] or call 410 867-2100 extension 129.
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DOLLAR INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Dollar found support.
It looks to us as though the dollar has put in a low at the 76 level. We would not rule out a rally back to the 78.50 area basis this index. The dollar index moved to its lowest levels since July 21st and pushed our Chart Analysis Score into a - 70 reading. While our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains positive, our intermediate term weekly Trade Triangle remains negative. Long-Term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
See today's Dollar Index Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
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OUR VIEW: FIB Resistance awaits at 323.12
The action in this index for the past two days has not been particularly positive. We would view a close today around the 318 level as an indication that this market has topped out, for the moment. The 323.88 level is a 61.8% Fibonacci level and we expect that will halt the current upside momentum for this index. Our long-term Trade Triangle remains negative and we expect to see this market once again resume its downward trend. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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Don't miss MarketClub TV Tonight at 5pm EDT.
E-mail us your questions at [email protected] or call 410 867-2100 extension 129.
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tonight, right here on MarketClub TV. Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
The traders may only think of silver as an industrial metal, but the public certainly disagrees. Hence, the true price of the metal, i.e. the cost of a Silver Eagle or silver half dollar, quarter or dime, is significantly higher than the paper cost. Don't believe me, try buying some. If you want to invest in silver, don't buy paper, buy the real thing and take delivery. Then hold on to it for a couple years . . .the paper price gets some major ambushes, like just recently, by all the big banks like JPM that have used naked shorts to the tune of tens of thousands of TONS of silver, just to hold the price down. They can drive down the price big time for a while with this essentially criminal act, but long-term they are screwed, because there are about 20 Lehman Brothers getting ready to fold in Europe and all the currencies are in a reverse beauty contest. $30 an ounce will seem like a hell of a bargain in a couple years from now, hell maybe a lot sooner than that.
Deb ... my sincere advice. Get out of this trade traingle and all. Not jus this traingle, no one has any clue. One day or the other it wud go up or dn and they will claim "like we said so". But end of the day we would have made NO money.
Is monthly trade triangle for S&P turned into positive?
Ya most of u guys who have commented are right.
Wanted to follow this so called trade triangle for a month to chkout its performance. It looks more like a commentary rather than a prediction or calculation.
I am done with it. No offence to the product. m done. Goin to cover my short in Silver.
Thanks guys
Balaji,
Thank you for your feedback.
Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You have no one else to blame but yourself if you lost money in the market. You probably were not using any kind of money management control on your position. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.
Adam
Girls and boys, if you rely on somebody to tell you when to go long ("trade triangle is green") and when to go short ("trade triangle is red"), when to hold, and when to hold, without telling you why, well, do you think that you'll ever really be able to trade by yourselves?
Further, Adam says "Do You Know Which Way the Market Is Headed?" The implication is clear, that he does and if you don't, then you should join marketclub. But know this, he doesn't know either. None of us knows.
We might think we do, but really, it's all just a huge game of chance.
Jason,
Thank you for your feedback.
Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You have no one else to blame but yourself if you lost money in the market. You probably were not using any kind of money management control on your position. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.
Adam
Here you post :
SILVER (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Is silver a precious metal, or an industrial metal?
It is hard to get excited about the silver market, as our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains negative. As stated before, silver is sometimes viewed as an industrial metal and other times it’s viewed as a precious metal. I think people who want to trade these metals are probably better off looking at the gold market. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continuea to be negative based on our Trade Triangles. Long term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.
In you daily email you post:
December silver was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading
range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in
early day session trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above
the reaction high crossing at 33.100 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted.
Silver has surpassed the $33.10 mark signaling (in your own words) that a short term low has been posted...but on your site posted above, you tell people to short silver? Why the conflict?
Dave,
The daily commentary email is not Adam's or MarketClub's view. The market commentary we provide by email is supplied by a 3rd party from the exchanges and will have a different view than we do from time to time. We provide it as another tool for trader's to use. Adam's view of Silver hasn't changed..
It is hard to get excited about the silver market, as our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains negative. As stated before, silver is sometimes viewed as an industrial metal and other times it’s viewed as a precious metal. I think people who want to trade these metals are probably better off looking at the gold market. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continuea to be negative based on our Trade Triangles. Long term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.
Hope this clears up the confusion.
Best,
Jeremy
DAve,
I am amazed at how many comments about our Trade Triangle are coming from none members of MarketClub. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.
All the best,
Adam
The market wants to be bullish and the EU BS is just an excuse for the fuel.
S&P likely 1280 by friday and DOW likely 12200. Why because nobody will want to miss the rally.
When the market is going up things are not as bad as expected, when it's going down things are not as good as expected. Even if in reality nothing is any different than before.
Hi Adam
Since the last 10 days about, I have many problems to get more than 3 or 4 charts on markets I like to analyse. What's wrong ?
Thanks
They will print money and every thing will be fine for a while.
The markets will rally!!!
The gold will reach 2000 easy.
Long rate is currently 3 1/8% - 3 1/4%? If the rate drops over the next 2 to 3 years to 2%, A position in WHOSX should return close to 60%. WHOSX
is a no-load mutual fund in the Wasatch Funds group. Annual management fee = .75 of 1%. Clients of Hoisington Management include: A.T.&T.,H.E.B. Groceries,Citigroup, Georgia-Pacific, Rice U., Blue Bell Creameries, my wife and I,etc. Average annual return for the last 20 years = 10%. Their YTD return is right at 30%.
Pray this helps you and yours..........
Good Luck guys.. You will see S&P monthly green triangle by this Friday. I would like to see what will be justification after fighting 17% rally from bottom..
I agree with you Adam. The solution they will come up with that they will call "fixed" is similar to a failing business getting a new loan to bail them out while changing nothing about the way the business is run. It's inevitable, all of these governments [including ours] and their fiat currencies need to go out of business and replaced with new management and business owners.
A little corny but true.
GO Gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Been an avid follower of your thoughts on Silver market. I am on the short side for some time now and your predictions were on the same side too and hence kept the short open.
But I see your trade triangle slowly is moving away from short. Initially the day and now your weekly and may be in 2 days even the long term. By the time we exit we might have lost a good 15 %.
Adam can you also put your stop loss fig as well in all your write ups? It would help take your inputs in the right perspective