Thursday Oct 8th, 6:05PM EDT
INO.com Traders Blog
Expert Charts, Trading Tips and Technical Analysis from INO.com
Yet again the dark cloud of the European debt crisis is in the news and hanging over the world markets. We want to ask......
Will the European debt crisis flare up again and drag down global markets?
We would love to hear your comments on the subject.
The MarketClub Team
With respect to trading, I would like to point out an observation. The SP 500 opened by gapping lower than the previous close which had only succeeded in neutralizing the bearish action from early in the week. This set up a potential Harumbi candle stick pattern. which would be a short term reversal of the 2 day up trend. So I bought SPY puts on a bounce to broken SP500 previous support/resistance at 1382.50 for a move back to, or below the 50 day moving average at SP 500 1376. This was broken so decisively that it seemed likely to extend the decline late in the day. This did occur erasing the potential Harumbi pattern, but confirming the reversal.
My point is this. The SP 500 chart prints the close of the previous day as the high or low of the current day's trading. Sometimes the SPY chart does also, but not usually. Unless one monitors the opening, and uses the daily time frame with 30 minute bars, it is easy to miss gap openings up or down which need to be factored in when identifying short term trend changes. Just thought some would like to know this.
The U. S. economy is no better off than any other faltering/shrinking Western Country economy. The U. S. is on Government Life Support: Bailouts, Government Programs, Infrastructure Rebuilding and Expansion, Government Grants, Government Loans, Quantitative Easing, Default Swaps, Bad Loan Repurchases and near 0% Federal Reserve Interest Rates now going on 4 years and promised to be held until 2014 to allow trillions of printed Government money to continue to flow into the Economy and the Wall Street Casino (aka Stock Market) through cheaply borrowed gambling money.
Just a mere HINT of an interest rate ramp-up (leave alone an actual increase) by Bernanke or the FOMC Meeting Minutes would immediately collapse the Wall Street Casino and severely slow the Economy further. Of course, all this comes with currency debasement and huge debt, now at $15.625 trillion and counting, like the snow piling on the roof of the Coliseum, until one day…
Please note that the European Economy has outrun the American economy since 1945. The Euro was introduced with the help and push of the US Gov, as one Top Banker said to me, now we are going to make money again. (At the expense of whom, I may ask). The US can not match production and quality of the Europeans. However, theUS make sure they have their ACE in hands, and that is the US$. Nobody knows how many of those are around, weakening and strengthening economies of any countries in the world. For reasons known Europe could not have adapted the US$, the UK , even a member of the EU, could not joint the Euro as they are hand in hand with the US Gov working against Europe, as they are the biggest creditor of the US. So even if nobody can beat them at their game, no one is willing to join them. Reasons known. Have a good trading time and good luck.
The US Fed and Euro Central Bank will continue to pump trillions of phony dollars and Euros into the system to prevent systemic collapse. Spain and Italy will soon default, and Germany will leave the party and find Nordic partners to share a new currency. The fascist business model here will prevail and continue to pump out endless trillions to buy US debt that no one else now wants to purchase. Overseas holders of such debt will continue to divest while making arrangements to settle trade in oil and other commodities in non-US$$. Security agreements now in place between OPEC, China and Russia will lead to the end of the petro-dollar, and thus the end of cheap consumer goods in the US. Quantitative easing never ended and won't until the system comes crashing down.
It's not just Europe, the whole fiat currency system is doomed.
Yes I think Europe is in bad shape and yes I think their problems will be contained at least in the short term. Europe will blow up with a loud fizzle. They will continue to have problems that Europeans cover with monetary bandaids which will cause some choppy markets and trading opportunities going forward. I also believe that as time goes on China, India, and other emerging markets growing consumer base will help drive these countries to have a greater % of their GDP based on local consumption instead of continuing to be mostly export driven by European and American consumers. So the economy will chop along with Europe providing bad news and the emerging market maturing and providing global growth. I see a choppy market moving higher in the US. Of course there is also our overbought bond market that should provide some monetary shift to equities going forward, but that has nothing to do with Europe, just a bunch of baby boomers looking to increase returns on their nest eggs.
It's pretty Simple, You can't fix your debt problems by borrowing more money.
That theory calls double trouble I guess
It doesn't matter - the U.S. and Europe will muddle through the mud for the next several years.
The dot com have brought down the market,
Lehman Brother have brought down the market.
Then, sooner or later, should European debt crisis bring down the market as well ?
Come on People, lets wake UpPP and see the Truth,,,, the problem with the debt is that it was Created by the Big Crooked Banks and tried to pass it on to the People that don't owe those Crooks Anything, the crooks all should be in JAIL. 4/13/12
Amen! Can't tell the difference now between the banks and the government.
This is now a corporate oligarchy not a representative democracy - when it take $MM to run for office.
Politicans don't give a crap about their constituents - only those who have bought and paid for their votes before they ever get to Washington.
This country is doomed to an evolving crisis that will have no peaceful resolution.
Cue the Thomas jefferson quote a government failing to represent the interest of its citizens.
Why does the media idolize that Dimon fella? Everytime he whines or crys that the banks are being held back, folks rush in to take his back and the politicians keep cashin his support checks. Why does he keep getting bailed out and the people keep paying for his mistakes that always seem to turn out favorably for him? What do they mean when they say JPM is best of breed? All we heard after the crash was Too Big To Fail, now all the media cheerleaders are bragging on the best of breed Big Banks. What is going on with all of this? Are the bankers so smart that they can keep kickin our tails and make us like it at the same time? Have we not learned anything? Why are we not teaching high school students and workers with 401-Ks that the stock markets (casino) are not tied to the real economy? People keep getting hurt, but continue to listen to the noise from those with hidden agendas. WHY?
Live from Spain: Here's Johnny!
Until the powers that be realise that prosperity can not be achieved by manipulation and printing money not only Europe but the entire financial system is doomed..
I don't think it is our prosperity they are worried about.
If We respect what We think, then We ...
I think the fundamental problem is Socialism. Like all it's offshoots, socialism indoctrinates people into believing that they can have something for nothing. There is no need to work, to be honest, to give fair value. Something called 'the State' will provide. And so we end up with countless millions of people, agitating via special interest groups, who collectively make impossible any corrective action. The economies of the West just keep on dwindling.
There is more socialism in Sweden, Finland, Germany and some of the other small successful European countries. This is to tell you that a good social system does work if the people behave like responsible citizens, not like profiteers, as unfortunately happens in those countries which are now in bad shape. It's to simple to just blame socialsim (whatever that means) wholesale!
Yes, there is more socialism in Sweden, Finland, Germany and other successful country in Europe etc.,
but look at their human capital. It is not just "unfortunately happens" the bed shape, it is , because
the poor quality of the people.
ya right wake up boso
they will probably find a way to 'kick the can' again enough for our market to continue to rally after a sharp correction, but ultimately I believe Europe will drag our economy down. Just when that is likely to be, I wish someone could tell me.
Return to top of page
© 2015 Copyright INO.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.