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Weak

The Real Price of Gold

The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding.  Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.

gld.dbc

And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets.  Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU…

gld.spy.ezu

Recovery would have to start somewhere, and the fledgling moves above show that gold is above the SMA 50 in EZU (Europe) units but still has work to do in SPY units.

Finally, below is our big picture road map NFTRH has been working to in a) managing risk against the gold bear market and b) not having its analysis shaken out of the fact that the real price of gold remains in a secular bull market and thus, so too does gold.

The long term Gold vs. CCI commodity index has been a core (even the core) chart in NFTRH’s biggest picture macro themes including prominently, secular economic contraction.  As long as point 4 holds a higher high (to 2), that theme remains a good one.

au.cci

NFTRH was the first that I knew of to talk about a bullish economic phase in early 2013 when most people were under their respective rocks hiding as law makers went through the dreaded Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance.  That was due to industry information I had about the Semiconductor equipment sector and also due to indicators like the Palladium-Gold ratio (ref. 1st chart above).  But the chart directly above paints said recovery (post-2011) as a counter trend economic up cycle within an ongoing cycle of economic contraction.

Why do policy makers continue to fight the good inflationary fight?  Why, look no further than this chart.  Gold rising vs. the things of positive economic correlation indicates an ongoing phase of global economic contraction.

If you would like to get with the service that got it right and kept it right all through the bear market but maybe find some of the concepts confusing (they are, considering that the concepts are quietly presented against high levels of noisy analysis out there across the macro markets) just drop me a line for more detailed explanation any time after you subscribe.

I am going to make a concerted effort to be very clear in explaining the why’s and why nots about what lay ahead.  2014 was identified in NFTRH as a time for a ‘Macro Pivot’ and when the macro pivots, you definitely want to be on the right side of coming events.

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Comments

  1. Anonymole says:

    Inverted weekly head and shoulder pattern gold puts gold @ $1500 - $1550 in 2-4 months.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/217878013/Finance/GoldMeasuredMove-6-29-2014.png

  2. Phil M says:

    Well the price does seem to have found some support so I guess we could see this as a commodity that might be worth backing in the near future. However whether this is a longer term trend remains to be seen - it's more likely a simple bounce in response to current global worry about Iraq.

  3. Spette says:

    Even a broken clock is correct 2 times per day. Call the same thing enough times, and you're bound to get one right. Never mind the prior destruction, after all memories are short term.

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