Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

U.S. Dollar Futures

The U.S. dollar in the September contract settled last Friday at 94.93 while currently trading at 93.77 down about 115 points for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum hitting and 11 month low. I'm currently not involved in this market, but I do think prices are heading out towards the 90/92 level in the coming weeks as the bearish momentum is getting stronger on a weekly basis. The Dollar index traded as high as 102 in the month of March as low-interest rates in the United States continues to push this market lower. If you are short a futures contract place the stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 95.96 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. The currency market is one of the trendiest markets as picking a bottom, or a top is extremely dangerous as some of these trends can last for long periods of time just like this one has in 2017. I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position that would be very dangerous as this market is trading far under its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that this trend is the downside so if you are short stay short as you're on the right side in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2456 while currently trading at 2468 hitting an all-time high in Thursday's trade continuing its remarkable run to the upside. I still think there is room to run as investors should be playing this higher in my opinion as economic growth continues to spur stock prices higher. The S&P 500 is trading far above it's 20 and 100-day moving average, and this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as earnings are coming in better-than-expected and the NASDAQ 100 is absolutely on fire to the upside. I see no reason to pick a top and go short at this time. If you are long a futures contract, the chart structure is poor because we are up on a daily basis so place your stop loss under the 10-day low at 2410. The chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as all of the interest lies in equities at present. Extremely low-interest rates in the United States which continue to go lower almost on a daily basis continue to catapult higher prices coupled with the fact of low inflation as this is the perfect storm for higher prices so stay long.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.6910 a pound while currently trading at 2.7250 up 340 points for the trading week. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2.71 level & if you took the trade, the stop loss has been raised to 2.6420 and in Tuesday's trade will be raised to 2.66 as the chart structure is improving on a daily basis, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. As I stated in many previous blogs the copper market is following the stock market which is slightly lower in today's trade but hit another all-time high this week as demand for copper is increasing due to the strength in the housing market so continue to play this to the upside. I will be looking at adding more contracts once the monetary risk is highly in your favor. Copper prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is higher as we are looking to retest the March 1st high of 2.7850. If that is broken, I honestly do believe that we could be at the 300 level in the coming weeks especially if some type of infrastructure package comes out of the Trump administration. That could send prices much higher in my opinion so stay long & if you're not involved look for some type of price dip to enter into a bullish position.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract is currently trading at 14.60 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 14.30 up 30 points for the trading week hitting a seven-week high. I'm keeping a close eye on a bullish position, but the 10-day low stands at 13.21. I am not willing to risk $1,500 per contract plus slippage and commission as this is a relatively small contract and the risk/reward is not your favor at present. Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as there is room to run to the upside with the next level of resistance all the way at the 16 level. I'm looking to purchase sugar on a down day, and I would like to risk around $1,000 per contract which could happen in next week's trade as the chart structure will also improve on a daily basis lowering the monetary risk as I am bullish the soft commodities. At present, I have a current recommendation in coffee which is hitting an eight-week high in today's trade as the agricultural markets have bottomed out in my opinion. The U.S. dollar is hitting an 11 month low today so don't be short sugar as hopefully, we get lucky enough to buy on a price dip in next week's trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the September contract are higher by 2 cents at 5.05 a bushel still hovering right near a three-week low. I'm currently not involved in this market as I'm advising clients to avoid as there is no trend despite the fact of nearly 100° in Western territories of the U.S. However, all of the bad news has already been reflected in the price in my opinion. Wheat prices are trading below their 20-day but above their 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as prices topped out on July 5th at 5.74 & now dropped about $0.70 all due to weather conditions improving. The grain market, in my opinion, is limited to the downside as we still have a long growing season ahead with so much uncertainty. Couple that with the fact that the U.S. dollar continues to head lower on a daily basis. I'm very bearish the dollar and think lower prices are ahead which is supporting commodities in general. Minneapolis spring wheat is trading at 7.70 down slightly for the day dropping about a $1 from recent highs as that commodity remains bullish to mixed. I talk to many farmers as they have just plowed their fields in the Dakotas and Montana and turned it into hay as rains at this time are not beneficial as that crop remains in a dire situation.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR - IMPROVING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog futures in the October contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 67.17 while currently trading at 67.85 up about 70 points for the trading week. I am keeping a close eye on a possible short position, and I'm waiting for the chart structure to improve, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. If you are already short a futures contract, I would place the stop above the 10-day high which stands at 70.52 risking around $1,100 plus slippage and commission as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average. I think a top was formed around the 72 level several weeks ago. Overproduction of hogs in my opinion I think will start to put pressure on this market in the coming weeks ahead. However, I will wait for the monetary risk to get down to about $700 as the volatility is not high enough to warrant $1,100 risk in my opinion. I will look for some type of price rally in next week's trade to initiate a short position. The next major level of support is around the 67 area & if that is broken the bearish trend could accelerate to the downside as the front month hogs have been in a bullish trend the entire year of 2017. I think all of the good news has already been priced into this market so look for a short position in the coming days.
TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the December contract which is considered the new crop & is currently being grown in the southern part of the United States and settled last Friday in New York at 66.58 while currently trading at 67.63 still stuck in a 4 week consolidation ending the week on a sour note down about 130 points. Prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as prices look to have bottomed around the 66 level. In my opinion, the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade. Growing conditions at the current time are pretty much ideal. However, there are certain sections which do need some rain, but when you plant 12 million acres, there is always going to be some problematic areas. There is very little fresh fundamental news to push prices higher until the next USDA crop report is released in about three weeks so keep a close eye on a possible bullish scenario which could happen in next week's trade as the U.S. dollar continues to head lower which is a bullish situation for the agricultural markets. At present my only recommendation in the soft commodities is a bullish position in coffee as I am also keeping a close eye on sugar prices as the whole sector looks to have bottomed out in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 133.70 a pound while currently trading at 136.05 up about 235 points for the trading week continuing with its bullish momentum hitting an eight-week high. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 132 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which still stands at 125.80. That will not improve for another three trading days, so you are going to have to accept the monetary risk which is high. The next significant level of resistance is 140 & if that is broken, I think we could be off to the races to the upside as strong demand continues to push prices higher as harvest is underway in the country of Brazil and seasonally speaking that's when bottoms are created. Coffee prices are trading above their 20-day and now above their 100-day moving average for the 1st time in months as that tells you that this trend has turned to the upside. If you're not involved in this market wait for some type of price dip, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as I still think higher prices are ahead.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 312-224-8140
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

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