Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 58.95 a barrel while currently at 57.81 down about $1 for the week unable to crack the critical $60 level at this time. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 53.15 level & if you took that trade place the stop loss come Monday at 55.75 as it will also improve on a daily basis, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as volatility remains relatively low despite the fact that prices are right at a two year high. Oil prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher, but for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break through the November 24th high of 59.05 as demand continues to support prices here in the short term. Couple that with the fact that the U.S. stock market hit another all-time high this week telling you that economies worldwide and in the United States are improving, therefore, increasing demand for oil in the short term. At the current time, crude oil is my only recommendation out of the energy sector, and I'm also keeping a close eye on natural gas which is experiencing high volatility presently. I'm looking for a possible bottom developing in that market soon.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID - IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.91 while currently trading at 3.11 up about 20 points for the trading week experiencing extremely volatile conditions on a day-to-day basis. It looks to me that a bottoming pattern is starting to take place and I'm currently not involved, but I'm looking for a possible bullish position soon. Extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States is causing some of this volatility to the downside and then weather reports stating that December could be extremely cold sending volatility to the upside as prices hit a yearly low last Friday and then traded as high as 3.21 earlier in the week. I'm advising clients to avoid this market at present and be patient. Weather temperatures in the state of Illinois come Monday are going to be around 62° which is remarkable as we enter the volatile month of December. However, we are not experiencing cold temperatures at all, but that can change very quickly. Prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the short term trend is lower, but I do think the downside is limited, and it's good to see high volatility enter this market. I do think a possible retest of the 2.91 level could happen early next week.
TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive session after settling last Friday in New York at 17.11 an ounce while currently trading at 16.35 down about $0.75 for the trading week now hitting an 18 week low looking to retest the 16 level in my opinion. I had been recommending a bullish position from the 17.30 area getting stopped out earlier in the week, and I am very surprised at how weak prices are acting. I do believe that the Bitcoin mania is hurting the precious metals as there doesn't seem to be any buying interest at the current time. Silver prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend now is to the downside and I am not involved at the current time and will not take a short position as I still think historically speaking prices look cheap. However, move on and look at other markets with better chart structure as the risk/reward are no longer in your favor. I was also recommending bullish positions in gold and platinum, and I was stopped out of gold in Thursday's trade as the precious metals continue to be under pressure. Volatility in silver has increased experiencing one of its worst weeks in months breaking major support, and I will keep a close eye on this market and look for a bullish position, but that will be down the road. I probably will not be involved in this market until 2018.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Platnium Futures

Platinum futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at $945 an ounce while currently trading at $937. I have been recommending a bullish position from the $936 level as prices have gone nowhere over the last several weeks still experiencing very low volatility. If you took the original trade, the stop loss remains at $921, however that will improve in two trading sessions, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I was stopped out of silver and gold this week as the precious metals were under pressure. I think the Bitcoin mania which hit an all-time high around $11,000 earlier the trading week is taking away interest from the precious metals as there is very little buying enthusiasm at the current time as now prices are trading right at their 20-day and slightly under their 100-day moving average. I will continue to place the proper stop loss & see what next weeks trade brings. The U.S dollar had very little impact on platinum prices this week as the selloff in silver and gold is whats keeping a lid on platinum as its acting the strongest out of the entire sector at the present time.
TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the March contract are currently trading at 3.56 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.51 up about 5 cents possibly creating a double bottom around the 3.49 area on the daily chart. I'm not involved in corn, and as I've talked about in many previous blogs, I think the downside is limited primarily due to high ethanol demand helping support prices. Harvest is completed in the Midwestern part of the United States as we produced around 14.5 billion bushels and we will now focus on the 2018 crop with an estimation of around 91.4 million acres planted which could produce another large crop once again. Large money managed funds are still estimated to be short around 230,000 contracts as they believe prices are headed lower despite the fact that we are right near a three week high & if that continues to the upside you would have to think that massive short covering could take place in next weeks trade. Prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside and volatility is extremely low currently as that should start to increase soon as the chart structure is outstanding and we have gone nowhere over the last month. I could be entering into a bullish position relatively soon, and I will not take a short position as we are squeezing blood out of a turnip at these levels in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 71.93 while currently trading at 73.14 up about 120 points for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum right near a three month high. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 70.50 level, and if you took that trade, the stop loss come Monday has been raised to 69.41 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis, therefore, lowering the monetary risk in next weeks trade. Harvest in the southern part of the United States is almost complete, and we will now focus on the 2018 crop as we are right near major resistance at the 74 level. I think we could retest the November 11th high of 74.20 in next weeks trade & if that is broken, I think we could be off to the races to the upside. The agricultural markets are starting to show some signs of life as the grain market, which has been in a bearish trend for quite some time, is even starting to rally as the U.S. stock market hit at all-time highs again due to tax cuts in the United States. That should spur commodity demand in my opinion as improving economies increase demand for everyday products. If you did not take the original trade wait for some price pull back as the risk is too high at this time. I will possibly be recommending another bullish position in next weeks trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR - IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract is currently trading at 15.18 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 15.45 down about 30 points for the week. I have been recommending two bullish positions with an average price around 14.74 & if you took the trade place the stop loss which remains at 14.73. However, in two days that will be raised to 14.90 as the chart structure will start to improve. Sugar prices have tried to break the 15.50 level on three different occasions only to fail every single time, and I will be recommending another bullish position if prices break that level as the risk/reward are in your favor due to outstanding chart structure. Adding to winners & getting out of losers is the way to trade over the long haul in my opinion. Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside & if the 15.50 level is broken, I think we will retest the August 1st high of 15.82. Sugar is riding the coattails of crude oil which is up another $1.50 today as sugar is used as a bio-diesel and strong demand continues to bolster prices in the short term so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2589 while currently trading at 2641 hitting record highs this week once again as tax cuts look to be approved by the Senate continuing its bullish momentum. I've been extremely bullish the equity markets for months, and I remain so, but I am advising some clients to take some profits at these levels which I rarely do as I think all of the euphoria is already reflected into this market. However, I certainly am not recommending any bearish position as I believe 2018 will be bullish once again, but the easy money has been made. The S&P 500 is trading far above it's 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is higher. We just experienced a 45 point trading range today due to Michael Flynn possibly testifying against Trump about the Russia collusion sending prices sharply lower, only to come back significantly as the trend remains higher. If you decide to take profits, I do not have a problem with that depending on your situation. If you think prices are moving higher continue to place the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 2567 and in Tuesdays trade will be raised to 2579 and in Wednesday's trade that will be raised once again to 2589 as the chart structure is finally starting to improve as I still remain bullish the entire equity market and commodity markets in general.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 312-224-8140
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

3 thoughts on “Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

    1. Hi Tim,

      Silver was included in the update: Silver futures in the March contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive session after settling last Friday in New York at 17.11 an ounce while currently trading at 16.35 down about $0.75 for the trading week now hitting an 18 week low looking to retest the 16 level in my opinion. I had been recommending a bullish position from the 17.30 area getting stopped out earlier in the week, and I am very surprised at how weak prices are acting. I do believe that the Bitcoin mania is hurting the precious metals as there doesn't seem to be any buying interest at the current time. Silver prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend now is to the downside and I am not involved at the current time and will not take a short position as I still think historically speaking prices look cheap. However, move on and look at other markets with better chart structure as the risk/reward are no longer in your favor. I was also recommending bullish positions in gold and platinum, and I was stopped out of gold in Thursday's trade as the precious metals continue to be under pressure. Volatility in silver has increased experiencing one of its worst weeks in months breaking major support, and I will keep a close eye on this market and look for a bullish position, but that will be down the road. I probably will not be involved in this market until 2018.
      TREND: LOWER
      CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
      VOLATILITY: INCREASING

      Best,
      Jeremy

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