Oil Price 'Risk Premium' to Play Out Over 4Q17

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


The Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) each released their monthly global oil assessments and projections. They agree that the global oil glut will not be whittled down to anywhere near OPEC’s target of the 5-year OECD average by year-end. Their numbers also imply that global inventories in 1Q18 will build.

The EIA numbers indicate that stocks will be 130 million above the average, just slightly below September’s estimate at end-March.

Global Oil Inventory

OPEC does not project its own production, and it, therefore, does not produce future global inventory levels. But assuming September OPEC production for 4Q17 and 1Q18, stocks will drop by 51 million barrels in 4Q17 and rise by 74 million in 1Q18, a net gain in inventories from September. Continue reading "Oil Price 'Risk Premium' to Play Out Over 4Q17"

Commodities: Time For A Strategy Shift

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor


Commodity prices are facing a shift. As inflation heats up and growth stabilizes, the commodity arena is gradually tilting in favor of growth-oriented commodities such as Oil and Copper Meanwhile, commodities associated with inflation protection, e.g., Gold and Silver, are not only losing their allure but face growing sell pressure.

The thought of selling precious metals just as inflation is showing signs of coming back may sound counter-intuitive. After all, precious metals are one of the more well-known methods of hedging against inflation. So, why are precious metals tanking just as inflation is coming back?

Because the capacity of precious metals as an inflation protection method emerges when investors believe that inflation is understated in the official numbers. When inflation becomes fact, we begin to see the classic, "buy on rumor, sell on fact" response; i.e., investors start selling precious metals. Since Gold and Silver do not pay interest, their investment appeal decreases when rates rise. But, when inflation is under-reported, effective rates are lower and the value of the currency, in our case the Dollar, is eroded. And, in this case, precious metals gain appeal for preserving value and as an alternative investment. That would explain Gold’s price surge from July $1,210 an ounce in July to $1,350 in September, when US headline inflation numbers caught the market off guard with a fall to from 2.7% in February to 1.6% in June, meaning inflation was understated.

This dynamic also explains the fire sale that hit precious metals in the aftermath of the Fed's September rate decision. The Fed signaled a rate hike as soon as December and another three in 2018. Gold responded by shedding 3.6% in two weeks.

Gold
Chart courtesy of MarketClub.com

All the while, the rest of the commodities space was holding rather well in the face of higher rates. In fact, in aggregate, excluding precious metals, commodities prices were gaining. One good example is the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG), which embodies exposure to the broad commodities market from energy and agriculture to precious metals and gained 0.54% during Gold's selloff. Continue reading "Commodities: Time For A Strategy Shift"

Thank the Government for These 12 Stock Picks

These 12 stocks could see explosive moves if Trump pushes his tax reform forward.

The share prices for these industry giants will be re-calibrated to take into account the possible release of $250 billion domestically from overseas holdings.

Investors that are positioned in these stocks will be the first to thank the government for share price spikes.

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Best,

The INO.com Team
support@ino.com

Waiting On Netflix Earnings

Hello traders everywhere. Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is expected to release its third-quarter earnings shortly after the bell this afternoon. Netflix's stock hit a record high last week after analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted the company would post subscriber gains above expectations and raised their price outlook from $200 to $235, while JP Morgan's analyst raised their forecast to $225 from $210.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

  • Netflix revenue for Q3 2017 is expected to be $2.97 billion, according to a Thompson Reuters consensus estimate.
  • EPS is projected at 32 cents, per a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate.
  • The strong growth is based on continued subscription additions, despite price increases.

Shares traded above $200 for the first time Friday and continue to trade above that level today. Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) raised some of its prices earlier this month, including for its high-definition plan and 4K streaming plan. Despite the price increase, analysts believe subscribers will stick with the company and are bullish on its international growth.

Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "Waiting On Netflix Earnings"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,275 an ounce while currently trading at 1,304 up nearly $30 for the trading week bottoming out last Friday around 1,262. I'm currently not involved in this market or any of the precious metals as gold and silver have remained extremely choppy in recent months. Gold prices are now near a three week high as the U.S. dollar has now hit a three week low and that has helped push prices up this week, and they are now trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher. However, in my opinion, avoid this market as the trend is truly mixed. The stock market has hit another all-time high in today's trade as money has been coming out of gold & into the equity market over the last several weeks as I remain very bullish stocks. I think gold will remain choppy for the rest of 2017 unless some development happens with North Korea as that could reemerge at any moment. I still think that situation is not going away and I do think the downside in gold is limited. However, I will wait for better chart structure & a better risk/reward scenario before getting involved.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"