A Tumbling Copper Could Hit The Floor

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Greed is one of the strongest human motivators. It is easy to get greedy, but it is hard to push it down after it gets extreme. The main point of my previous update in August was to focus your attention on the price action in the $3 area as the price could hit this psychological level and then retreat. My advice was to book profits and wait to see what would happen next.

I hope that you heeded my advice and didn’t get greedy as copper was pushed down below the $3 level very quickly.

In the same post, I thought that this upside move in the metal that had started last year could just be a consolidation before another drop down. In the chart below I go into more details about it.

Chart 1. Copper Monthly

Monthly Chart Copper
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
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Stock Market Trades At Record Highs

Hello Traders everywhere. Wall Street has extended its record setting gains into Monday. The gains today come on the heels of a record close last week where we saw the all three indexes close at record highs. The U.S. Dollar halted a two-day drop and Treasuries slipped as investors remain bullish on the American economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

The markets focus now turns to the Fed meeting this week. While the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, close attention will be paid to the chance of an increase later in the year and on whether officials will announce the start of a reduction in the bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

If you haven't read it yet, check out INO Contributor George Yacik's latest blog post where he shares his view on the coming Fed meeting.

Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Stock Market Trades At Record Highs"

What's Behind the Fed's Inflation Obsession?

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


The battle lines are being drawn for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. The prevailing market consensus right now is that no resolution of the debate – which mainly concerns inflation – will happen at the meeting, meaning there will be no change in interest rates, and may not be before the end of this year.

One side of the issue, which seems to be the prevailing view at the central bank, was recently promulgated by Fed governor Lael Brainard at a meeting of the Economic Club of New York. “My own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target,” she said. “We have been falling short of our inflation objective not just in the past year, but over a longer period as well. What is troubling is five straight years in which inflation fell short of our target despite a sharp improvement in resource utilization.”

The other side, which appears to be the minority opinion, is represented by William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, who isn’t overly concerned about the current level of inflation. “Even though inflation is currently somewhat below our longer-run objective, I judge that it is still appropriate” to raise interest rates soon, he said recently. “I expect that we will continue to gradually remove monetary policy accommodation.” Continue reading "What's Behind the Fed's Inflation Obsession?"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,351 an ounce while currently trading at 1,328 down about $23 for the trading week. For the 1st time in over a month prices traded lower and may have topped out in the short-term at 1,362 as profit-taking has ensued pushing prices lower this week. If you are long a futures contract, the chart structure has turned outstanding, and I would place my stop loss as an exit strategy below the 10-day low standing at 1,319 which is just about $10 away. Prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher in my opinion. The U.S. dollar traded sideways this week lending little support for gold prices as the story is all about North Korea and if or if they don't send a missile over the weekend sending prices higher or lower. There is still a high demand for physical gold at this time so continue to play this to the upside. Volatility in gold is relatively high as the higher price goes in a commodity, the higher the volatility as well that is why you can see $10/$15 trading ranges on a daily basis. Make sure you place the proper amount of contracts as I think the volatility will even increase throughout 2017.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Hasbro - Future Catalysts Post Sell-Off

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The Backdrop

Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS) is the third largest toy marker in the world and develops many household brands and games such as the iconic Monopoly board game, G.I. Joe figurines, Play-Doh, and My Little Pony. Hasbro also has exclusive contracts with major movie studios such as Disney and Universal to develop and distribute toys. Hasbro develops toys for many of the multi-billion dollar movie franchises such as Marvel Universe, Star Wars, Disney Princesses, Frozen, Transformers and Jurassic World. Throughout 2017, Hasbro has witnessed a bullish run, up nearly 27% year-to-date however the stock sold off from its 52-week high of $116 to $93 or a 20% slide after reporting it most recent quarterly results. Hasbro has many catalysts in the near term with major movie franchises coming into the fray with upcoming Disney releases: Thor: Ragnarok and Star Wars: The Last Jedi to round out 2017. In 2018, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Star Wars Han Solo spinoff and Ant-Man and The Wasp to highlight a few major movies. Taking into account Hasbro’s growth, back-half of the year catalysts, trading at a P/E of ~20, boasting a 2.4% yield and initiatives within Hasbro Studios to propel growth further presents a compelling buy after this recent sell-off.

Major Disney Catalysts Ahead

With Q3 well under way and Q4 on the horizon (historically Hasbro’s strongest quarters), I think Hasbro can produce strong quarters moving into the back half of the year. It’s noteworthy to point out that Hasbro has exclusive rights with Disney to produce Marvel Comics and Star Wars toys which last through 2020 and Hasbro is also the licensed doll maker for the Disney Princess line (Moana and Frozen are included) which started on January 1st, 2016 (Figure 1). Continue reading "Hasbro - Future Catalysts Post Sell-Off"