We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold futures settled last Friday in New York at 1,334 an ounce while currently trading at 1,334 unchanged for the trading week as the volatility certainly has increased as gold prices have rallied about $100 from their December 12th low of 1,238 as this remains in a bullish trend. I do not have any recommendations in the precious metals, but if you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under the two-week low at 1,308 as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade. The main reason for the recent rally is the fact that the U.S. dollar has hit a three year low which is definitely a fundamental bullish indicator towards gold and the precious metals as a whole. The next major level of resistance is the September 8th high of 1,365. I think prices will try to touch that level in the coming weeks ahead as it looks to me that the dollar will continue its bearish trend, therefore, supporting gold despite the fact that the U.S. stock market seems to hit an all-time high every day which used to be negative towards gold. But 2018 is a different story as the commodity markets will start to catch up to the high stock prices in my opinion as the U.S economy is growing for the 1st time in nearly ten years. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is higher, but I will look at other markets with a better risk/reward scenario at present.
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"
FY2018 is off to an excellent start for The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) with a confluence of growth catalysts via streaming, studio strength, Fox acquisition and tax reform legislation. Disney has been establishing a firm footing in the streaming space via Hulu (30% stake and will likely be expanded to a majority 60% stake after the Fox acquisition), BAMTech, Sling, ESPN streaming service and a Disney branded service coming in 2019. The studio segment is off to a great start with record-breaking movie releases such as Thor: Ragnarok and Star Wars: The Last Jedi surpassing $850 and $900 million in worldwide box office receipts, respectively. Disney is evolving to address the deteriorating Media Networks business segment with major streaming initiatives. Disney has one of its biggest movie slates for FY2018 with Blank Panther, The Avengers: Infinity War and Solo: A Star Wars Story around the corner. Disney also announced that it is acquiring 21st Century Fox’s assets to further drive growth for $52 billion. This acquisition brings in noteworthy studio assets such as more Marvel properties (X-Men, Fantastic 4 and Suicide Squad) and Avatar along with TV content, regional sports and a 60% majority stake in Hulu. Disney currently pays a 33% effective tax rate and now with tax reform signed into law; this rate will be dramatically reduced a third to 21%. Disney can deploy more cash into growth initiatives and return value to shareholders via increased dividends and share buybacks with the increased cash flow. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, Fox acquisition, pipeline, Media Networks remediation plan, diversity of its portfolio, tax reform, share repurchase program and dividend growth.
Transformative Fox Acquisition
Disney shelled out $52 billion to acquire many of Fox’s assets to drive future growth in regional sports, movies, TV programming and foreign market penetration. This is a transformative acquisition as Disney will take control of the movie studio and significant TV production assets and gain exposure to international markets through Fox’s networks via a 39% ownership of Sky (Figures 1, 2 and 3). In addition to the movie studio, TV production and international assets such as Star and Sky, Disney will also add entertainment networks such as FX and National Geographic. Bob Iger stated that the deal should close in 12-18 months and highlighted the chance to expand Fox's Avatar franchise particularly considering new theme park lands. In addition to expanding the Marvel Universe via X-Men, Fantastic Four, and Deadpool, Disney will obtain Fox's distribution rights to the first Star Wars film. The deal will be accretive to EPS for the second fiscal year after closing, says Disney CFO Christine McCarthy, and Disney expects roughly $2B in cost synergies by 2021. Taking a majority stake in Hulu will further accelerate Disney’s streaming capabilities and compete directly with Netflix (NFLX). Taking majority control of Hulu is going to be beneficial and result in "flowing more content in Hulu's direction," and managing Hulu "becomes a little more clear, a little more effective." Turning to sports, combining Fox’s sports content with Disney’s ESPN will be synergistic and a "perfect complement" to ESPN's offerings, which are national in nature and will benefit from regional focus, Iger says. Continue reading "Disney: Fox Acquisition, Streaming, and Tax Reform"
Hello traders everywhere. The stock market is finishing up the week mixed, much like the entirety of the week was. We saw wild swings in both the stock market and Bitcoin. And it might not be over yet with a couple of things looming.
There's potential for a government shutdown. On Thursday, the House passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, but the bill is now in the Senate's hands, where 60 votes are needed to send it to President Donald Trump's desk. Most experts believe that there is a 50/50 percent chance that we will see a shutdown. Historically, a government shutdown has led to a short-term pullback in the stock market.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined in January to a six-month low as American households viewed the economy less favorably, as reported by the University of Michigan report that was released Friday.
The decline in sentiment included a decrease in a measure of buying conditions for big-ticket goods, indicating consumer spending may slow early this year after a solid holiday shopping season.
The setback in purchasing conditions was mainly due to less attractive pricing, according to the University of Michigan. That was reflected in a pickup in increases in expected inflation rates over the coming year and longer term.
At the same time, the expectations index remained stable, with 70% of respondents saying they thought the impact of the tax reform act would be positive. What's more, the survey showed lingering strength in personal finances. Improved finances were reported by half of all respondents, matching the 2017 average which was the best in 17 years.
Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Wall Streets Wild Week"
On January 2, 2018, Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. “Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.”
Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2018 includes
“The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, and Iran.” Continue reading "Why $80 Crude Oil Is Highly Unlikely In 2018"
The U.S. bond market took it on the chin again last week. The question is: Was this is a harbinger of even higher yields to come or just an overreaction to some potentially scary headlines – some of which turned out to be fake news – and therefore a potential buying opportunity?
“Bond King” Bill Gross started the fun on Tuesday when he tweeted out these ominous words: “Bond bear market confirmed.” He did tone that down in his market commentary to his Janus Henderson clients, saying, “We have begun a bear market although not a dangerous one for bond investors. Annual returns should still likely be positive, although marginally so.”
Still, that’s not a whole lot to be happy about, unless you’re heavily invested in stocks, where the returns may be even worse, i.e., negative. The other so-called Bond King, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, predicted that the S&P 500 Index would end the year with a negative return. He also said that if the 10-year Treasury yield pushes past 2.63% – which it almost did last week – it will accelerate higher.
The news got worse after that. Continue reading "Are We Really In A Bond Bear Market?"