Back in December, I deduced that the Saudis had budgeted a little less than $53 for oil in 2017. Their budget was based on their belief that they didn't expect to see any U.S. shale oil production response in 2017. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid A. Al-Falih said it in answer to a question in the press conference after the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting (see video starting at 51:35). He backed-up his belief basing it on the time lag of when oil prices had peaked in 2014 and when production peaked in 2015.
After the deals went into effect on January 1st, oil prices remained above $50 per barrel. According to the EIA’s weekly production data, U.S. crude production rose by 318,000 b/d between the last week of December and the week ending March 3rd, just before Al-Fahil’s speech in Houston during on March 7th.
He said he is optimistic about the global oil market in the weeks and months ahead, but "I caution that my optimism should not tip investors into 'irrational exuberance' or wishful thinking that OPEC or the Kingdom will underwrite the investments of others at our own expense." Continue reading "What Oil Price Band Do The Saudis Want?"
Hello Traders everywhere. The Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Janet Yellen are stuck between a stronger global economy and a lull in U.S. inflation; the Fed is expected to announce whether it will raise interest rates for a third time this year or back off until prices rise to a level that they are comfortable with.
The Fed also is likely to announce a scheduled reduction of its approximately $4.2 trillion in holdings of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of it accumulated in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.
Crude Oil is on the rise and trading above the $50 level today. The significant move today comes on the hell of news that gasoline stockpiles are at a new 22-month low and exports of crude and fuels surged.
Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "Stocks Hesitate Ahead Of Fed Announcement"
Greed is one of the strongest human motivators. It is easy to get greedy, but it is hard to push it down after it gets extreme. The main point of my previous update in August was to focus your attention on the price action in the $3 area as the price could hit this psychological level and then retreat. My advice was to book profits and wait to see what would happen next.
I hope that you heeded my advice and didn’t get greedy as copper was pushed down below the $3 level very quickly.
In the same post, I thought that this upside move in the metal that had started last year could just be a consolidation before another drop down. In the chart below I go into more details about it.
Chart 1. Copper Monthly
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "A Tumbling Copper Could Hit The Floor"
Hello Traders everywhere. Wall Street has extended its record setting gains into Monday. The gains today come on the heels of a record close last week where we saw the all three indexes close at record highs. The U.S. Dollar halted a two-day drop and Treasuries slipped as investors remain bullish on the American economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.
The markets focus now turns to the Fed meeting this week. While the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, close attention will be paid to the chance of an increase later in the year and on whether officials will announce the start of a reduction in the bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
If you haven't read it yet, check out INO Contributor George Yacik's latest blog post where he shares his view on the coming Fed meeting.
Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Stock Market Trades At Record Highs"
The battle lines are being drawn for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. The prevailing market consensus right now is that no resolution of the debate – which mainly concerns inflation – will happen at the meeting, meaning there will be no change in interest rates, and may not be before the end of this year.
One side of the issue, which seems to be the prevailing view at the central bank, was recently promulgated by Fed governor Lael Brainard at a meeting of the Economic Club of New York. “My own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target,” she said. “We have been falling short of our inflation objective not just in the past year, but over a longer period as well. What is troubling is five straight years in which inflation fell short of our target despite a sharp improvement in resource utilization.”
The other side, which appears to be the minority opinion, is represented by William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, who isn’t overly concerned about the current level of inflation. “Even though inflation is currently somewhat below our longer-run objective, I judge that it is still appropriate” to raise interest rates soon, he said recently. “I expect that we will continue to gradually remove monetary policy accommodation.” Continue reading "What's Behind the Fed's Inflation Obsession?"