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All Is Well This Memorial Day Weekend - Right?

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. As we come to the end of the week and the trading month and face the long Memorial Day weekend, I have a slightly uneasy feeling about the markets.

Later on today, Janet Yellen the Fed chair is set to speak with Harvard professor Gregory Mankiw as she receives the University's Radcliffe Medal.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

Boy, they sure like to give each other awards don't they? It's too bad that we can't give an award to the economy which still has sub 2% growth with record low-interest rates!!

Here's the problem as I see it, the FED said that it was it was going to rely on data as to whether or not it would raise interest rates. Now they're saying you have to see how things go – really?

It has seemed to me for quite some time now that the Fed has mishandled this whole financial meltdown and quite honestly have no clue as to what to do about it. It also seems that they lack any common sense even thinking about or talking about negative interest rates – how stupid can they be?

Ms. Yellen and President Obama - the answer is not complicated - lower taxes and cut all the red tape, hoops and hurdles that business have jump through. Then all you have to do is stand back and keep out of the way of the economy as speeds up growth and job creation.

Not complicated!

Okay, having gotten all that off my chest let's take a look at the markets. [Read more...]

Is Apple About To Buy Netflix?

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. The buzz around Wall Street this morning is that Apple is going to buy Netflix. As you probably know, Apple has a huge cash hoard rumored to be somewhere around the $200 billion level. Netflix is worth perhaps 40 or $50 billion, so it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see how a deal like this could work. Apple wants to move into the content and distribution space and Netflix might just be the vehicle to do that.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): Here is the rundown on Apple, several days ago Warren Buffett purchased Apple stock as he thought it was undervalued. Based on the Trade Triangles I'm on the sidelines in having taken a small loss of $3.39. Technically the $104 level should present a major barrier for Apple. One thing to remember, this is only a rumor and it is not supported by a strong technical picture. The biggest concern I have is the current lack of innovation by the company. In my opinion, without innovation a tech company like Apple is going to have a hard go of it. [Read more...]

It's All Systems Go For This One Index

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. I just got back from a few days in California visiting my new 2-month-old grandson which I'm very excited to say is a well and a very hungry little guy. While I was away the index markets just thrashed about until my return when yesterday we saw a significant move to the upside in the indexes.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

The big surprise for many traders was the big drop in gold prices. I will be looking at that drop today based on the Trade Triangles and you may be surprised to see what they were indicating and showing traders in the last 10 days.

Crude oil continues to be in a strong uptrend, but that may be coming to an end as crude is fast approaching the $50 mark. [Read more...]

One Of These Markets Is Going Down Big Time

Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Not sure if you live in the rain soaked mid-Atlantic states, but enough already with the rain! It is depressing. The reason I bring this up is the erratic and somewhat depressing action in the stock market.

On Tuesday we watched a massive rally in stocks and everyone was singing happy days are here again. Yesterday, reality and gravity came into the market and took away practically all of Tuesday's gains.

As I said on Monday when I talked about "The Next Big Swing", I believe that the markets are putting in a major top as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have all flashed red weekly Trade Triangles indicating to be out of the market and on the sidelines.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
So sad about Apple, here is a stock that was the "apple of every investors' eye" and now this once super stock is now in the dumpster. The question is, with all the Trade Triangles red and pointed lower for Apple, is it just a false signal or is this really the start of a bigger problem? I believe that Apple has some serious hurdles ahead and as the weeks and months pass these problems will come to the forefront.

The biggest problem for Apple right now is that it is not seen as an innovative growth company. Can anyone say "Nokia" and not wonder what happened to this once-leader in the mobile phone market? The next problem Apple has, and this could well be its number one problem, is perception. Apple is just not perceived as a "cool" company anymore. Apple's third problem is expanding its market for its cash cow iPhone. It very much looks like China wants to put the kibosh on any further Apple iPhone sales as they really want to sell their own smart phones (so much for free trade).

The next big psychological level for Apple is $90.00. Once we see around $89, you will see many more investors throw in the towel. On Thursday the 28th of April, Carl Icahn stated on CNBC that he no longer owned any Apple stock. MarketClub's Trade Triangles exited Apple six days earlier at $104.88. I am guessing Mr. Icahn exited around the same time before he made his big announcement on CNBC.

Daily Chart of Apple Inc. (NSDAQ:AAPL)

[Read more...]

The Next Big Swing In Stocks

Over the weekend I was analyzing the charts and it appeared to me that with Friday's red Trade Triangle on the S&P 500 that stocks have topped out. The similarity between August and September and this January and February is quite startling. If the same pattern holds true then the next big swing in the stock market will be to the downside.

Already we have seen weekly Trade Triangles in the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) and just recently in the S&P 500 (CME:SP500). These weekly red Trade Triangles many times act as early warning system and are a strong indicator to move to the sidelines in the case of the Indices.

I would not be surprised to see more back-and-forth choppy trading action before the market eventually falls under its own weight.

I am looking for stocks to make a cyclical low sometime in June if the same cycle holds true.

Daily Chart S&P 500 (CME:SP500)

S&P 500 Chart Legend

1. First Low
2. Pivot Point
3. Second Low
4. Cyclic High
[Read more...]

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