S&P 500
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Dow Indu
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Nasdaq
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Crude Oil
31.91
+2.50 +7.97%
Gold
1237.82
0.00 0.00%
Euro
1.125725
0.000000 0.00%
US Dollar
95.981
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Strong

This Indicator Is A Winner For Long-Term Traders

It has been one heck of a week to say the very least and it is not over yet. I want to take a look at a tool that I'm pretty confident in saying that very few traders ever watch. The tool I'm discussing is MarketClub's quarterly charts. If you have not seen this MarketClub feature, you may want to check it out, particularly if you are a long-term trader.

I'm going to be looking at the S&P 500 to see just how close the quarterly chart is to turning negative. I'm also going to be looking at a textbook example of a downside measurement on the S&P 500.

I will also be analyzing Apple and Yahoo, both of which could be in for a pretty bumpy ride.

Let's begin by looking at the S&P 500 (CME:SP500) and the textbook example I mentioned earlier for measuring a down move. I'm using a close-only weekly chart and you will see exactly how I measure the move.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 (CME:SP500)

Next let's take a look at this long-term quarterly chart of the S&P 500 and as you can see it is poised to possibly break the positive long-term trend that has been in place since October of 2010. [Read more...]

It's Not Over Until It's Over And It's Not Over Yet - Part 2

Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Well, today's sharp drop in equity prices and the rally in gold should come as no surprise as I have been talking about this since the beginning of the year. In fact, here's my first post where I explained why I thought the bear market was going to continue in the equities market. I'm not going to go over the reasons again as to why the markets are going down, suffice to say they are going down and are likely to continue.

At the moment all of the central banks, including the Fed, are clueless as to what to do. Instead of spending time on a cure in 2008, we made it easy for everyone to "take a pill" and mask over the problem. Since it did not cure the problem, we all have to suffer now as the markets readjust and face the music. The new hard reality is that there is no wonder pill.

Let's take a look at the major indices and see how far they could fall based on Fibonacci retracement levels and technical measurements. [Read more...]

Can Star Wars Save Disney Or Will ESPN Sink The Ship?

After the close today, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) announces its earnings for the fourth quarter. Analysts are expecting Disney to make $1.45 a share on revenues of 14.7 billion. But here's the rub, ESPN which produces 45% of Disney's revenues, lost 3 million subscribers last year and is now a potential Achilles' heel for Disney.

Here's how I'm looking at Disney:
The Trade Triangles are all red and negative indicating lower prices. Technically the chart for Disney looks dismal at best. Based on those two elements, I expect Disney to either come in on analysts estimates or to miss their earnings. I do not expect to see a surprise on the upside here. Based on that analysis you would want to be short (if you're not already based on the Trade Triangles) Disney before the close today.

Daily Chart of The Walt Disny Company (NYSE:DIS)

Another stock that is set to report fourth-quarter 2015 results after the close today is Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:AKAM). Analysts estimate that this stock should have positive earnings of around $0.50 a share. I would be surprised given the overall negative tone of tech stocks that even if Akamai reports good earnings, it won't go far on the upside. Technically speaking this stock according to the Trade Triangles is in a major downtrend, it has however completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is within striking distance of a long-term support line which comes in around $37 a share. I would be more inclined to go with the trend and stay short this market. The original Trade Triangle sell signal for this stock came on 7/6/15 at $69.13. Akamai closed on Monday evening at $40.98. [Read more...]

Is It A Monkey That's Going To Sink The Market?

Let me begin by acknowledging the Chinese New Year. You might ask yourself, "What does that have to do with the markets here in the US?" My answer to you would be everything. Remember how influenced we were with the slowdown in China last year? This slowdown could be exacerbated in 2016, putting even more pressure on our markets here.

2016 represents the year of the "Red Monkey" on the Chinese calendar and it does not auger well for stocks according to "The Business Times" of Singapore.

Here's what they say:

"Do not expect the Year of the Monkey to be easy for investments. You need to outsmart the monkey to do well in the lunar year 2016. Do expect world events impacting stock markets and investments to change sharply and quickly, like the agile monkey."

"Expect markets to be volatile in the first half of the year (we've already got that) and for events to unfold quickly," their Chinese astrology expert says.

"The Year of the Monkey is going to shake, rattle and roil financial markets. One has to be as intelligent, witty and nimble as the monkey to do well in such investment landscape," he writes.

The most-recent Monkey year was 2004. In that year, the Shanghai Composite climbed 36% only to come crashing down in a 44% correction that bottomed in June 2005 (and then rallied 500%).

MarketClub translation - be nimble in 2016. [Read more...]

Did you see LinkedIn (LNKD) Today?

It has been a great week with some strong trades happening. One of those stocks has to be LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE:LNKD), the professional social media site that recently updated its website with a redesign. After the bell yesterday, LinkedIn announced its earnings and future outlook. Upon seeing the numbers, investors bolted to the escape doors as LinkedIn clearly missed its target and future outlook.

Did this come as a big surprise to us at MarketClub? The answer, in all honesty, is no as all of the Trade Triangles were negative indicating a lower trend for LinkedIn.

Daily Chart of LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE:LNKD)

It is hard to ignore the power of the Trade Triangles during earnings season. [Read more...]

Major Alert: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Flashes Its First Major Sell Signal In 16 Months

In the first 30 minutes of trading today, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) triggered a red monthly Trade Triangle indicating a major trend change in this stock. This could be partly due to Amazon's announcement yesterday that it planned on opening 400 brick and mortar bookstores. So after putting almost every bookseller out of business, Amazon is now going into the brick and mortar business. Could that be a big mistake for Amazon?

Daily Chart of Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Technically speaking, Amazon could quite easily fall back to the $441.95 level which represents a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. That is $100 lower than the current price. Personally, I love Amazon, I shop there all the time, but right now I do not like the stock of Amazon. I think that Amazon is setting up to go lower based on the Trade Triangle technology. If my analysis of Amazon is correct, it does not auger well for the rest of the market or the economy. [Read more...]

3 For 3 And 3 More To Watch Today

Good day, MarketClub Members! So, what do I mean when I say 3 for 3?

1: Let's start with Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) - The Trade Triangle technology indicated that the trend was heading lower and Apple was most likely to report disappointing earnings. That is exactly what happened when Apple reported its earnings after the close on 1/26/16. Apple opened lower the next day giving members another winner and profits up to 92% on options trades.

2: Next I recommended that a sidelines position was warranted in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) as the Trade Triangles were mixed indicating that there was no strong reason to take a position. The trading hours before the close showed Amazon up over 9%. Reality kicked in after the earnings announcement as Amazon gave back all of its earlier gains justifying the sidelines position.

3: Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) - Yesterday a weekly Trade Triangle turned green aligning with the monthly Trade Triangle indicating a long position was warranted. Members were rewarded as Google jumped $40 in after-hours trading giving members another winner.

3 stocks to watch today after they release their earnings after the close are: [Read more...]

Can Google Overcome Apple As The Most Valuable Company In The World?

Welcome to the first day of trading in February. If it is anything like January, it's going to be quite a month.

After the close today, Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) will announce its earnings. If it is a blowout and Google surges $25, it will then become the most valuable company in the world - not bad for a company that was founded on September 4, 1998 and has only been around for 17 years. It took Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) which was founded April 1, 1976, almost 40 years to become the world’s most valuable company.

Today, Google flashed a buy signal putting both the monthly and weekly Trade Triangles in unison. That indicates there are good odds that Google will beat its earnings estimates after the close. There are no guarantees, but the odds would favor being long Google before the close.

Let's take a look at the rest of the markets which are not having such a good time of it. The dramatic rally on the last day of trading in January was more a function of short covering than anything else. Most stocks and indices are in a longer-term bearish trend based on MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology. [Read more...]

Things Got Pretty Ugly For Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Yesterday

Yesterday was a doozy of a day for buyers of Amazon. First the stock rallied and closed out the day at $635.35 for a gain of $52 (8.91%) in regular trading hours. Great day, right?

After the close, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) released its Q4 earnings which were a big market surprise. In a matter of minutes, Amazon dropped over 13%, closing at $550 in after-hours trading. That is a swing of $85.00 or over 20% in one day!

I outlined on Wednesday that I was neutral on Amazon as the weekly and monthly Trade Triangles were in conflict. When you see a conflict between the weekly and monthly Trade Triangles, it indicates a sidelines position for the stock.

It's the end of the week, end of the month and it's time to talk about the January barometer. [Read more...]

One Day Does Not Make A Trend

It's hard to believe that we just have one more trading day in January, which has been an extraordinarily volatile month and one that will certainly go down in the history books.

Many of the well-known large stocks are now in downtrends and are not likely to have major turnarounds anytime soon. One has to remember that the stock market looks six months ahead. While many of the companies are perhaps enjoying some good earnings, this may be the last good earnings season we see for some time to come.

On a brighter note, my trade in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) turned out well and it would now look as though Apple is going to be on the defensive for several months. I can see this stock continuing to erode down to perhaps the $80 level.

Let's look at some other well-known stocks that are all in major downtrends at the moment. [Read more...]

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