Well, here we are in December, the final trading month of 2016, and what a year it has been. After what can only be described as the most controversial, unorthodox and stressful presidential campaign in history I think the country just want to move on and into the holiday season.
For 2016 the major indexes have performed remarkably well. For the year the DOW has gained 10%, the S&P 500 7.24% and finally the NASDAQ is up almost 5%.
December has traditionally been a positive month for stocks and this December could well continue that trend. One word of warning about December, after about the second week of trading, liquidity begins to shrink dramatically as many traders and brokerage companies start to wind down operations for the year. Traditionally most market participants look forward to the holidays and a well deserved mental and physical break from the markets. This year is no different, in fact, I think it will be magnified as the equity markets have all performed well. Unless we see a "Black Swan" event in December, we expect to see stocks remain flat to positive month.
The reason I want to bring the month of December to attention is simply to alert you to this one fact. If you have not made your money for the year yet, the last two weeks of December is not the time to be taking big risks and swinging for the fences. Continue reading "December Can Be A Difficult Month For Trading"
Call it the Trump Rally, or any name you like, but the stock market certainly came alive when the election swung in Donald Trump's favor. While all eyes are on equities, other things are going on in other markets that you should be preparing for.
Today, I'm going to take an in-depth look at the gold market that has been out of favor the last several years. Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) did enjoy a strong rally in the first half of the year and was a top performer. Since moving close to $1400 in July, gold has steadily eroded down to around the $1,180. The question now is, is gold going to continue on the downside or begin to stabilize and start looking forward to what could be an inflationary future? With that in mind, I decided to look at three market keys that could unlock gold and determine its future.
Long-Term Negative Force Line
FIG 1. I have drawn a long-term down sloping trendline starting from gold's all-time high of around $1900 and connected it to several other high points over the years. To be a valid technical trendline, it must touch three points. When that happens, it confirms the validity of the line. The long-term negative force line seen in FIG 1 is the dominant and number one element that will determine which way gold is headed in the future. I would consider a move over the $1375 - $1400 (3) levels on spot gold as a major signal that gold has changed direction to the upside. When this happens, and it will happen sometime in the future, gold will enter into a multiyear bull market. FIG 1 is the number one technical aspect for gold and should be watched closely in 2017.
Continue reading "With All Eyes On Equities - You May Have Missed This Sleeper"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. You've probably heard by now that the Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is not going to be moving one of its plants to Mexico. Finally, the U.S. is waking up and realizing that it cannot be a superpower while having a service economy. Whether you voted for Trump or not, I think we have to give him credit for this save. Hopefully, some of the other promises he made will also help the U.S. economy like lowering taxes and nixing some of the onerous regulations that are handicapping businesses in the U.S.
So far the markets seem to like what they see with all of the indexes higher for the week. The big winner this week was the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) which jumped +1.84%.
However, the biggest winner for the week is Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.Z16.E) which is up +5.32% for the week. The big loser is gold (NYMEX:GC.Z16.E) which is down -0.87%. Let’s examine how the Trade Triangles are positioned in both of these markets. Continue reading "Ford To Stay In America, Two Trump Thumbs Up On This One"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. The Chinese have a saying that goes like this; "May you live in interesting times" well these certainly are interesting times in America.
It doesn't matter if you are on the right side of the ledger or the left side of the ledger change is coming. Just like the how the markets change the political climate also changes every so often and we are in one of those times right now.
So what's ahead for President-elect Trump? Well, I think it's fair to say that most all the pundits got this one wrong and to guess what's ahead would be in my humble opinion a mistake as no one knows at this time. What we do know is what the market are telling us and that is something we should all listen to and put aside any political differences.
Technically with the Trade Triangles, I see that the gold market is in a strong downtrend, crude oil is presenting a mixed picture and the major indices also in a quandary at the moment. Continue reading "It's A New Trading Week And A New President-Elect"
Today I want to start off by thanking the brave men and women who have and continue to serve and protect our country. Thank you for all that you do!
Let's look at two very well-known and some would say mighty stocks. Both of these stocks are households names and have proven to be safe investments over time. The question now is, is that dynamic changing or has it changed already? Let's get started by looking the first stock.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG): For the first time in a long time Alphabet triggered a major sell signal which pushed all of the Trade Triangles into a negative mode. The first indication that there was trouble afoot for GOOG came on November 2 when the weekly Trade Triangle gave a red exit signal at $773. Is GOOG a buy here or is this once mighty stock headed lower? Continue reading "How The Mighty Have Fallen"