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The Gold Report: When we talked in November, you warned that there would be downward pressure on gold this year. What are you anticipating for the balance of 2015 and into next year?

Florian Siegfried: We were being cautious in November when we published guidance that indicated gold could trade as low as $1,070 per ounce ($1,070/oz) as a support zone. And that is pretty close to where it is trading right now. But I think that we have to distinguish between the paper price of gold and the physical price, which trades at a premium. For example, the U.S. Mint currently sells gold at around $1,400/oz.

"Pretium Resources Inc.'s Brucejack is one of those mines that brings a long mine life and high grade in a safe jurisdiction."

This suggests that there is some tendency toward increasing premiums in the market for physical metal. Where we go by the end of the year is a difficult question because it's always hard to catch the bottom of the market. But a look at the last three or four years gives us some clues. Hedge funds were maximum net long in gold at the peak of 2011, and now they're maximum net short, which could be a good contrarian indicator (see chart above).

It looks as if $1,080/oz could be the bottom. It's not defined yet, but the sentiment is definitely at extremes.

The turn in gold will come from short covering, and the short covering will come when the bearishness really reaches a climax event. Probably we are there, but we will have to wait and see. It is difficult to make a call for year-end because there are so many factors influencing the gold price, and sentiment is extremely negative. The trigger for moving up could come from the bond market, which is in a difficult spot right now. Liquidity is down. Yields and credit spreads are rising. When something goes wrong there, where will the conservative money go to? I don't think it is going to go back into government funds. As investors lose confidence, that could be the trigger for gold. We are probably going to see this in the fall, by September or October. I think the bond market is about to turn around.

TGR: What are some of the other triggers you're watching? Are you monitoring the U.S. Federal Reserve and whether that rate hike happens in the fall? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/Yj6Wo8VGpQ0/16738

Supply and Demand Will Rescue Gold Soon

The Gold Report: The gold sector entered full-blown panic mode in July with the Bloomberg analysts forecasting a dip below $1,000 per ounce ($1,000/oz) this year, and Deutsche Bank forecasting $750/oz. Is this just fear feeding on fear, or is there something else going on?

Jeffrey Mosseri: It is fear feeding on fear, but there are two other things going on. The first is the strength of the dollar, and the second is the weakness in the price of oil. Combined, these two factors have greatly and negatively affected the prices of all metals in U.S. dollars. Over the past year, gold is up 2040% in many currencies.

TGR: In the last couple of years, the idea that the price of gold is being manipulated downward is no longer dismissed entirely as a conspiracy theory.

"Commerce Resource Corp. recently announced excellent drilling results at its Ashram rare earth deposit."

Douglass Loud: I wouldn't want to use the word "manipulation," but you could have an analyst predicting a gold price of $1,050/oz, followed by someone on the trading desk shorting it down to $1,050/oz, without any collusion.

TGR: How big a role does China have in setting the gold price? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/7AjSm7ArB80/16736

Is It Too Late To Buy Netflix?

By: Melvin Pasternak of Street Authority

While old media stocks like Viacom (Nasdaq: VIAB), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and 21st Century Fox (Nasdaq: FOXA) were hit with bad news and huge losses last week, Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) scored three straight record closing highs before succumbing to profit-taking on Friday.

Shares have been on a tear, more than doubling in the past four months. I'm sure plenty of investors are kicking themselves for missing the boat, but it's not too late. When a stock makes a new all-time high, especially a high-momentum growth stock like NFLX, it tends to keep moving higher. And Friday's sell-off provides an attractive short-term entry level.

Netflix is being driven by strong growth domestically and abroad. On July 15, the video streaming giant reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings of $0.06 per share on revenues of $1.64 billion. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30588757

Despite Low Rates, Housing Rebound is Weak

By: Elliott Wave International

A June 28 headline on CNBC reads, "Homeownership rate drops to 63.4%, lowest since 1967." The report goes on to say "The number of occupied housing units grew, but all on the renter side."

What does this change mean for the future of real estate in the U.S.? Will the recent rebound in mortgages and real estate prices continue?

Listen to this clip from Steve Hochberg's recent presentation at the San Francisco MoneyShow to get Elliott Wave International's unique perspective on the future of the U.S. real estate market (don't miss the link at the bottom to watch 4 more clips from Steve's presentation):


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Despite Low Rates, Housing Rebound is Weak. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Six Miners Dundee's Joseph Fazzini Believes Will Weather the Storm

The Gold Report: Many of the people we interview have a theory about why gold is performing poorly this summer despite so much global uncertainty, especially in China and Greece. What's your theory?

Joseph Fazzini: Gold typically plays numerous roles, including being a hedge against inflation, devaluation and economic turmoil, but it's still a commodity. Most commodities typically come under pressure in a recessionary environment. Right now, the global economic landscape isn't all that promising, inflation remains minimal and investors prefer other safe-haven investments (i.e., U.S. dollar). As a result, we expect gold to continue performing in-line with most other commodities and remain under pressure.

TGR: How low can gold go? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/80tqw-JMTeg/16720

I Spy With My Little Eye Support In The SPY

Join Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com as he takes you through a potential SPY trade setup using options with Fibonacci analysis. He picks up where he left off with the SPY chart from July 8th. The market is pulling back, but using eSignal's Advanced Get Todd identifies the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci support zone that could offer you a potential long setup.

Learn more about TradingAnalysis.com here.

Plan Your Trade, and Trade Your Plan,
Todd Gordon

A Wynning Trade In Gold ?

Join Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com as he takes you through two trade setups using options with Fibonacci analysis. We first look at our gamble on WYNN, and then move to a chart that looks set to lose it's luster, gold.

Learn more about TradingAnalysis.com here.

Plan Your Trade, and Trade Your Plan,
Todd Gordon

Short McDonald's Now

By: Melvin Pasternak of Street Authority

I have to admit it: McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is not one of my favorite fast-food restaurants.

As I age, I am increasingly concerned about the effect diet has my health, so I try to eat lots of fruits and vegetables and avoid foods high in salt and fat. True, you can find some relatively healthy options at McDonalds if you choose wisely. However, if you indulge regularly in high-fat, sodium-rich hamburgers and fries, it can lead to an increased risk for Type 2 diabetes and heart disease, among other things.

My beef with the chain goes beyond its food, though. The company also uses way too much packaging from my point of view -- a sin it shares with many of its fast-food brethren. For anyone with a sensitive environmental conscience, what gets dumped into the trash can at the end of a McDonald's meal causes added distress.

My complaint with McDonald's stock goes beyond my dislike for the restaurant. With the broader market reeling from the effects of the Greek debt crisis and the massive sell-off in Chinese stocks, I believe McDonald's may be on the brink of a major correction. As a result, it is setting itself up as a highly profitable short trade. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30576675

Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold

The Gold Report: Common wisdom says that when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this year, it will prove negative for gold. Do you agree?

Jeb Handwerger: I think it'll be the opposite. Money printing and easy credit has fueled the stock market rally and beaten down commodities. Investors flocked to dividend-paying stocks, and became speculative in tech, which has led to huge overvaluations similar to the late 1990s dot-com debacle. We've had a four-year parabolic rise in the Dow without a meaningful correction. Most investors who have been in this business for a while know that every four years you get a bear market with about a 3050% correction. Rising interest rates may be the catalyst that causes investors to flee the general stock market, which has proven attractive in a low rate environment. Higher interest rates concurrent with a pickup in inflation could result in a rush to a safe haven in commodities and wealth from the earth's natural resources and precious metals, which is historically a hedge against a pickup in inflation. [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/0Xz3ivW6HRU/16702

A Small Bet On Natural Gas Could Make Traders Big Profits

By: Joseph Hogue of Street Authority

The surge in natural gas production has changed the energy landscape in the United States. Production jumped 44% between 2005 and 2014 compared to a decline of 4.5% over the previous nine-year period.

Prices for natural gas at the Henry Hub in Louisiana jumped 162% between 2002 and 2008 on lower production and an economic boom in emerging markets. By 2012, prices had fallen nearly 70% to $2.75 per million BTU. Beyond a few spikes on colder weather, prices have flatlined between $2.50 and $3.50 for the past two and a half years.

Natural Gas Prices and Production

Futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) suggest traders are not expecting much to change this year, with the December contract priced at $3.17. But two catalysts may prove speculators wrong and spark a rally in natural gas prices. Traders who get positioned now stand to make up to 50% profits without ever touching a futures contract. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30569879

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