S&P 500
1987.01
+3.48 +0.18%
Dow Indu
17086.63
-26.91 -0.16%
Nasdaq
4473.29
+17.27 +0.39%
Crude Oil
103.08
-0.04 -0.04%
Gold
1304.695
-3.380 -0.26%
Euro
1.346160
-0.000140 -0.01%
US Dollar
80.837
+0.026 +0.03%
Strong

If Other Countries Sneeze, Will The U.S. Catch A Cold?

Just as the U.S. economy is strengthening, other countries are threatening to drag it down.

Employers in the U.S. are creating jobs at the fastest pace since the late 1990s and the economy finally looks ready to expand at a healthy rate. But sluggish growth in France, Italy, Russia, Brazil and China suggests that the old truism, "When the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold," may need to be flipped.

Maybe the rest of the world will sneeze this time, and the U.S. will get sick.

That's the view of David Levy, who oversees the Levy Forecast, a newsletter analyzing the economy that his family started in 1949 and one with an enviable record. Nearly a decade ago, the now 59-year-old economist warned that U.S. housing was a bubble set to burst and that the damage would push the country into a recession so severe the Federal Reserve would have no choice but to slash short-term borrowing rates to their lowest levels ever to stimulate the economy. That's exactly what happened. Now, Levy says the United States is likely to fall into a recession next year triggered by downturns in other countries, the first time in modern history.

"The recession for the rest of the world ... will be worse than the last one," says Levy, whose grandfather called the 1929 stock crash and whose father won praise over decades for anticipating turns in the business cycle, often against conventional wisdom. [Read more...]

5 Minimal Peter Cundill-Like Moves For Your Portfolio

By: Tim Melvin

Have you read the book There's Always Something to Do by Christopher Russo-Gill?

If not, it should move right to the top of your summer reading list. It is the accumulated reflections of Peter Cundill. A Canadian value investor, Cundill used the Graham Deep Value Approach to return a little more than 15 percent, on average annually, to investors for almost 30 years.

Cundill once described his approach as looking to buy dollars for $0.40, and he focused almost entirely on the balance sheet. He once commented that he did liquidation analysis and liquidation analysis only. He wanted to buy stocks in companies that traded below where he estimated they could be profitably liquidated.

1. Things To Do

Cundill looked all over the world for ideas, and felt that most of the time he could find enough bargain issues to get his funds invested in such bargain issues and provide above average returns. However, he was not afraid to hoard cash when he could not find enough true bargains to get fully invested.

Value investors today, however, find themselves facing a situation where it is very difficult to get fully invested, because of a lack of opportunities in the aftermath of a five-year rally in global equities. There are a few things to do, however, even in an overheated market.

The most obvious opportunity for those who favor a deep-value approach is the U.S. community banks. Many of these smaller banks face challenges that will push them toward the inevitable conclusion: they need to sell to a larger institution rather than go it alone. The avalanche of regulations is pressuring the bottom line as compliance costs spiral out of control and make it difficult to earn sufficient profits to justify independence.

2. A 'Perfect Storm' For Regional Banks

[Read more...]

Currencies, Gold And The Big Picture

Here are the monthly views of the basket cases we call major currencies.

Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by "The Hero" and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time.  In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route.  When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.

Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern.  There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc.  I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root.  Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.

usd

 

Long ago we projected a rally in Uncle Buck’s chief competitor, the Euro.  This was due to a bottoming pattern (formed on shorter term charts) and unsustainable negative hype about the Euro crisis.  The target was around 140 +/-, which is the top of the post-2008 downtrend channel.  Euro remains in a big picture downtrend and if global asset markets start to come unwound in the coming months, it is not Euros people are going to run to, I can tell you that.  Bearish below the upper trend line. [Read more...]

To Trade Successfully, You Must Trade With The Trend

In life, trends are all around us and you only have to look at the weather to know that’s true. It's a pretty safe bet that temperatures will be colder in December than they will be in August, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Trends also persist in the marketplace, but unlike the weather, these are moving trends and change year to year. As a trader and investor, you want catch the trends near a top or bottom.

Learn more about trading the trend here.

Candlestick Patterns – Harami

If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple.

If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his weekly trading tip.

I've already covered some of the better known patterns like Doji and Engulfing  – now it's time to add Harami to your candlestick chart pattern arsenal. Let's take a look at what this technical signal looks like, and what opportunities might be presenting themselves when you see it.

Harami patterns can be bearish or bullish

Harami, like engulfing patterns, are a two candlestick formation. They are actually often confused with engulfing patterns because they both involve candles where one real body is bigger than the other. The difference is that in harami, the preceding (or first) candle in the pattern is the longer one of the pair; it encompasses the whole body of the second candlestick. [Read more...]

The Importance Of Stops

Some traders may question the importance of stops and be concerned about putting a stop in the market, only to be quickly stopped out for a loss. Nothing could be further from the truth! Stops allow traders to protect and grow their capital. You can use the different types of stops to your advantage, and tailor them to your strategy and the type of market you are trading.  Let stops work for you!  They only risk what you decide is worth it.

Learn more about using stops here.

Practical Applications of Candlestick Charts

This audio lecture along with the downloadable PDF workbook covers and discusses practical trading approaches, including stop placement and trailing levels, risk parameters, money management and the psychology of trading any market with Japanese Candlesticks. The information derived by using this approach can directly influence the day-to-day decision process, which can enhance your awareness of the markets. You will learn the basics of Japanese Candlestick charting, as well as how to combine them with Western technical tools such as trend lines, DeMark Sequential, moving averages, stochastics, and may other standard technical tools.

Developed over three hundred years ago, this method of technical analysis is still relevant and an exceptional addition to Western technical analysis. By combining both approaches to market forecasting, one is able to take the best from both schools. Gary Wagner believes that the outcome from this combination is capable of extending the benefits of any methodology.

LISTEN NOW: Practical Applications of Candlestick Charts

Best,
The INOTV Team

Doug Casey: "America Has Ceased to Exist"

By Doug Casey, Chairman

“America is a marvelous idea, a unique idea, fantastic idea. I’m extremely pro-American. But America has ceased to exist,” says Doug Casey. Watch him in this fascinating interview with Reason TV’s Nick Gillespie discuss the political, social, and economic challenges the US must conquer as well as lessons we can learn from failed states.

A severe economic and/or political crisis can sneak up on you before you know it. Learn from the three harrowing stories of international crisis survivors—and the insightful comments of experts like Doug—how to recognize a crisis in the making. You may need those skills soon because it can, and will, happen here… Watch Meltdown America, a 30-minute free documentary that predicts the economic and political unraveling of the US.

 

The article Doug Casey: “America Has Ceased to Exist” was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract rallied $.35 cents this week as tensions between Israel and Hamas have sent prices to 4 month highs at 21.48 with the next major resistance at $22 as I’ve been recommending a long position when prices hit a 4 week high breaking above 20.02 about 3 weeks ago so continue to place a stop below the 10 day low as the chart structure is outstanding as that level currently stands at 20.82 risking around $.70 or $3,500 per contract at these price levels. Silver has been going higher in recent weeks as this commodity has solid demand due to electronics and many other products that currently use silver and if you’ve been following any of my previous blogs for the last several months I thought prices were extremely cheap especially compared to the rest of the commodity markets so continue to be long while placing your stop at the 2 week low as prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains higher.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

[Read more...]

Your Trading Business: Learn to Keep it Emotion Free

Forex trading successfully involves careful analyzing of data that is changing 24/7. This is not the forum for split-second decisions nor blind calls. You need to be consistently working a well thought out strategy that has been derived from real life data. If you suddenly find that you don’t know why have entered a trade, then you have most likely fallen victim to emotional trading.

Learning to control your emotions is a pivotal point in every young trader’s career. Once you are able to differentiate between trading from the gut and trading with sense, the losses stop and the gains begin.
To help you reach that point sooner, there are a few strategies you can employ: [Read more...]

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