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It's January 2013, With A Twist

The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be.  The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.*

So, why is today like early 2013 and why is there a twist to that view?  Because two indicators have come together to point to economic stability (at least) in the US, with the twist being that other indicators are pointing to a potential unchaining of inflation this time, unlike the 2013 time frame, which was in the grips of global deflation (and Goldilocks in the US).

So gold bugs, don’t get too concerned just yet.  The sector has been overdue for a correction and that is what it has been getting.  Speaking of sanitizing things, over bullish gold sector sentiment has needed a good clean out.  The 2013 signal immediately preceded the worst of the precious metals bear market, but the 2016 signal need not for reasons explained later in the article. [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,341 an ounce while currently trading at 1,329 down about $12 for the trading week as this chart pattern is very similar to the silver chart as prices continue to go sideways waiting for some fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action. Gold prices are trading at their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average as this market basically have been flip-flopping around due to the Federal Reserve doing an interest rate hike or not as I think that will continue for quite some time so avoid this market at the present time. The next major level of support is around 1,305 & if that is broken, you would have to think that the bearish trend would be underway. [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,310 an ounce while currently trading at 1,345 up about $35 for the trading week remaining extremely choppy as prices have gone nowhere over the last 3 months. Earlier in the week the Federal Reserve made comments that they will not raise interest rates as prices held major support around the 1,310 level and now looks to retest the upper end of the trading range around 1,360 as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a trend to occur. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the short-term trend is higher as the commodity markets in general in my opinion look to be bottoming. I see the next move to the upside across-the-board as the Federal Reserve, in my opinion, will not raise rates in 2016 as they want to see asset prices go higher. [Read more...]

FOMC: Not Enough Inflation, Folks

By: Gary Tanashian of biiwii.com

Not enough inflation.  That’s what the Fed is saying yet again.

FOMC Statement

“Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months”

The problem is, that like their innovative friends at the BoJ, which apparently thinks it is going to now engineer the Japanese yield curve into an inflationary environment, the US Fed is too heavily involved in the Treasury market.  So I ask you if just maybe the signals they are looking for in bonds are all screwed up by their very presence in bonds, 24/7 and 365 since 2008?  Hello Op/Twist… [Read more...]

'Gold vs.', Pre-FOMC

By: Gary Tanashian of biiwii.com

We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners.  In order for that to be a ‘buy’, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order.  Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets.  Below are two important ones.

Gold vs. Stock Markets has been correcting the big macro change to the upside since leading the entire global market relief phase (potentially out of the grips of global deflation) earlier in the year.  A hold of these moving averages, generally speaking, keeps a key gold sector fundamental in play as the implication is that conventional casino patrons are choosing gold over their traditional go-to assets, stocks.  A breakdown from the moving averages and it’s back to Pallookaville for the gold “community”.

Despite gold having topped out (in nominal terms) months ago, the gold vs. stock markets indicators are intact. [Read more...]

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