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Weak

If Other Countries Sneeze, Will The U.S. Catch A Cold?

Just as the U.S. economy is strengthening, other countries are threatening to drag it down.

Employers in the U.S. are creating jobs at the fastest pace since the late 1990s and the economy finally looks ready to expand at a healthy rate. But sluggish growth in France, Italy, Russia, Brazil and China suggests that the old truism, "When the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold," may need to be flipped.

Maybe the rest of the world will sneeze this time, and the U.S. will get sick.

That's the view of David Levy, who oversees the Levy Forecast, a newsletter analyzing the economy that his family started in 1949 and one with an enviable record. Nearly a decade ago, the now 59-year-old economist warned that U.S. housing was a bubble set to burst and that the damage would push the country into a recession so severe the Federal Reserve would have no choice but to slash short-term borrowing rates to their lowest levels ever to stimulate the economy. That's exactly what happened. Now, Levy says the United States is likely to fall into a recession next year triggered by downturns in other countries, the first time in modern history.

"The recession for the rest of the world ... will be worse than the last one," says Levy, whose grandfather called the 1929 stock crash and whose father won praise over decades for anticipating turns in the business cycle, often against conventional wisdom. [Read more...]

Happy Independence Day, America!

INO.com wishes all of our fellow Americans a happy 4th of July.
Our offices are closed today, out of respect and celebration, but we
will be back on schedule Monday the 7th. In the meantime, feel free to
email us at support@ino.com.

Have a great weekend and be safe,
The INO.com Team

4 Tips For Investors To Learn More About Private Equity

By: Tim Melvin

Tickers: AINV, APO, ARO, KKR

Most individual investors pay very little attention to what's going on in the world of private equity.

The shadowy world of private equity and buyout investing is seen as the province of large institutions and well-heeled big money types -- and of little interest to those looking to catch the next 10 point move in Apple.

It's of even less interest of those middle of the road investors who have some stock and mutual funds in their retirement plans and just do not spend a lot of time thinking about the markets. While most will never have big money invested in private equity funds, tracking this industry should be at the top of every investor's regular activities list.

Popularity Is Not Always Key [Read more...]

Optimizing the ABC Charting Formation

As a special treat to Trader’s Blog readers, Ron Ianieri is offering you an in-depth look at how to optimize the ABC charting formation.

The ABC Charting Formation is one of the most basic and frequently occurring charting patterns that exist. Watch how this basic chart can be turned into a big payday with the use of options. Follow along as we use options to safely and easily follow the ABC's charting patterns twists and bends. We start out with the most basic and most easily understood strategy, roll it, morph it and finally close it. Suddenly, this simple charting pattern, traded with the simplest option strategy, becomes a sophisticated looking trading strategy that is incredibly simple to use, fully hedged at all times, and very profitable!

The concept of synthetics has always been fundamentally important to understanding options. Synthetics show us the mathematical relationship that exists between the stock, a call, and its corresponding put. This mathematical relationship not only relates the price of these instruments in relation to each other, but also shows how a call can be changed into a put, or a put can be changed into a call by simply adding the stock into the equation. Understanding synthetics allows investors the ability to morph positions from the wrong position to the right position quickly and efficiently. Understanding synthetics also allow investors to take advantage of the put/call skew we frequently see in the options market today.

Watch it now: Optimizing the ABC Charting Formation

Best,
The INOTV Team

Are You Prepared For Q3?

It's hard to believe, but here we are coming to the end of the trading week and also the end of the second quarter. We only have a few more trading days before Q2 is done and dusted.

Earlier this week I wrote about Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) and First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR).

I still believe that both of these stocks will move higher, as the Trade Triangles are all in place. If you missed these posts, you can read about Tesla here and First Solar here. Both of these stocks are higher for the week while the general stock market is flat. I view this as a psychologically positive sign for these stocks.

Last week I also posted a special report on gold. I still believe gold is going to remain in a positive upward trend until about the middle of August. That is when this market next cycle should top out. As always, money management stops should be in place on all positions. [Read more...]

Poll: Are You Bidding On Bitcoins Today?

A couple of days ago we came across an article on Bloomberg about an upcoming auction (6/27/14 - Today) on a cache of Bitcoins worth about $17 million. The auction is for 29,656 Bitcoins, which are part of more than 144,000 the FBI transferred to U.S. Marshals after shutting down the Silk Road marketplace and arrested its operator last year. This auction offers a rare opportunity to secure a large amount of the virtual currency at one time.

Here's a link to FAQ's about the auction - Bitcoin Auction FAQ's

I thought it would be interesting at ask....

Would you bid in this auction?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

As always, we would love to hear what you have to say on the subject of the auction or just Bitcoin (BITCOIN:BITSTAMPUSD) in general.

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

Another Way to Play the Upcoming Energy Crisis

Yesterday I talked about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and how this company could skyrocket based on the potential high prices at the pump and the potential lack of availability of petroleum products.

Today I am going to be taking a similar view, but with a different company, First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR). When this company first came on the scene, it moved dramatically higher and in a matter of months was trading well over $300 a share, back in 2008. Since that time, the stock has generally drifted lower for the last several years until hitting a low in June of 2012. After trading below $12, the market has made a steady recovery to where we are today, around $70 a share. I certainly hope no one out there has been holding onto any shares since $300.

I am bullish on FSLR based on a number of factors. The Trade Triangles are all positive, we are in a strong uptrend, and this market could complete a classic Fibonacci retracement that would take it back over the $100 a share level. This stock has also shown a remarkable cyclic tendency and we are presently in a cyclic up-cycle right now.

As I stated in my piece on Tesla, the energy problem is going to remain and probably will deteriorate as the Middle East could go down in flames.

1. Cyclic high periods
2. Cyclic low periods
3. Fibonacci target zone between $94 and $113
[Read more...]

Is Tesla Ready To Skyrocket?

I am sure, like a lot of traders, you are paying close attention to what is going on in Iraq, Syria and Iran. My take on the situation is that it's not going to get better and the US is certainly not going to get involved in any meaningful way. This spells out doom for Baghdad, along with a bloody civil war which may have already started.

Against that backdrop, energy prices will continue to move higher and the possibility exists that the oil fields and processing plants in Iraq could be blown up just to put that country back in the Stone Age. We are dealing with a bloody sectarian war that is and will continue to tear that country apart. It also brings to mind what is going to happen to the rest of the Middle East? This whole Middle East problem has been going on for longer than anyone cares to remember and it's only going to be settled with a "bigger stick." At the moment, ISIS has the "bigger stick," the money, and the ferocious obsession of bringing their way of life to the area and surrounding areas. All in all it does not sound like too rosy a picture to me.

That got me thinking about who or what is going to benefit from much higher energy prices. One company stands out in my mind is Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) You're probably familiar with their expensive sports car that sells for upwards of $100,000, but they're working hard on producing a lower-priced model, one for the masses. They are also planning the largest battery manufacturing plant in the world.

All of this is driven by one man, Elon Musk, who is the driving force and mastermind behind Tesla's domination of the electric market and SpaceX. [Read more...]

Will This Magical Bean Produce Profits?

At the beginning of the second quarter, I put out a special report on gold and highlighted how the World Cup portfolio has had an 80% success record in that market during that time frame. I am happy to report that the second quarter of 2014 kept that winning streak alive with the recent move in gold and added to the profitability of the World Cup portfolio.

Well traders, as we rapidly approach the end of June and the beginning of the third quarter it is time to find out which market is going to be hot. Throughout the history of the World Cup portfolio (since 2007), the third quarter tends to be the killer quarter for soybeans.

In the past, using the strategy from the World Cup portfolio, soybeans has seen an 85% success rate in the third quarter. Now, that's not to say that this coming quarter is going to be 85% correct, but certainly the odds would favor that.

You can have access to the signals for the World Cup portfolio by joining MarketClub right here.

Here are the trading results for soybeans in the third quarter of every year since 2007, using the signals from the World Cup model portfolio strategy.

2007 $2,800.00
2008 $22,900.00
2009 $125.00
2010 $4,300.00
2011 $8,175.00
2012 $13,462.50
2013 -$650.00

As you can see from the numbers, 2008 was an outstanding year. Besides 2009 and 2013, most of the other years produced profits that were quite exceptional. As late as 2012, you would have produced a healthy return on your initial margin. [Read more...]

The Real Price of Gold

The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding.  Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.

gld.dbc

And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets.  Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU… [Read more...]

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