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Strong

4 Lessons From Buffett That Every Investor Needs To Know

By: Eric Winter of Street Authority

Behind each trade or investment, they are there... lurking, waiting to reveal themselves during a moment of weakness.

They are the four fears of investing.

I learned about these early into my trading career, and I've been a victim of each one over time. All drama aside, they affect every investor or trader who actively manages his or her own money.

In no particular order, the four fears are as follows:

1. Fear Of Loss
2. Fear Of Missing Out
3. Fear Of Letting A Profit Turn Into A Loss
4. Fear Of Being Wrong

Despite their prevalence, there are fortunately many methods to help conquer each of these fears. One of these tools comes from the long career and immortalized wisdom of the Oracle of Omaha himself.

While I can't be 100% sure what Warren Buffett would say in regard to each of these problems, we can use his bank of interview quotes and newsletter excerpts to infer what the billionaire would say about understanding and conquering each problem. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30486500

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part IV)

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

By Elliott Wave International

You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models.

Why did the traditional financial models fail? And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

This series gives you a well-researched answer.

Here is Part IV; come back soon for Part V.

Myth #4: "Earnings drive stock prices."

By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

This belief powers the bulk of the research on Wall Street. Countless analysts try to forecast corporate earnings so they can forecast stock prices. The exogenous-cause [i.e., news-driven -- Ed.] basis for this research is quite clear: [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the November contract had a wild trading week in New York currently trading at $83 a barrel after settling last Friday at 85.82 as prices actually breached the $80 mark before reversing in yesterday’s trade to settle down nearly $3 for the trading week. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 day and $13 below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is clearly bearish and if you are short this market place your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 90.75 and that stop will be lowered on a daily basis as I missed this market and am currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure was awful when the breakout occurred so I’m kicking myself at the current time. I definitely am not recommending any type of long position in crude oil as I think prices will continue to head lower especially with Saudi Arabia coming out stating that they will not cut production as they are looking for lower prices to squeeze U.S output as this market still has further to go in my opinion and 79.78 in yesterday’s trade will be retested once again so continue to take advantage of any rally making sure you place the proper stop loss also maintaining a proper risk management of 2% of your account balance on any given trade. Crude oil prices have dropped from $104 a barrel in late June to today’s price levels dropping over $20 or 20% as consumers will definitely benefit when they hit their local gas stations and that should also help improve the U.S economy. The fundamentals in crude oil are extremely bearish as worldwide supplies are extremely high while supplies here in the United States are at record highs so it’s very difficult to rally as we don’t have the spike up in price like we used to when Middle East conflicts erupted which is a good thing for the United States.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
[Read more...]

Five Ways to Stay Focused In Scary Markets

If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple and straight-to-the-point.

If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his weekly trading tip.

Today he’s going to talk about staying focused in scary markets.

In the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis, there have been moments that have been driven by pure fear. These are the moments when it can be hard to maintain your composure and trade your plan. Unfortunately, these big days are the times when you need that composure the most. Here is a quick lesson in why it is important to keep focused in a scary market and how to achieve that focus.

Market Basics

First let us understand some market basics. Markets exist to facilitate trade. From moment to moment the market offers traders the opportunity to profit from price movement. It's an environment where every trader has the freedom to create his own results, i.e. all the choices and the power to exercise those choices reside with the trader. [Read more...]

Dividend Investors Rejoice: Falling Markets Mean Rising Yields

By: David Sterman of Street Authority

In the early stages of the bull market, investors flocked to companies with steady and growing dividends. Yet, since the market began to think about an eventual rise in interest rates back in May 2013, this asset class has lost a bit of luster.

The concerns were quite logical: A steady rise in fixed-income yields naturally reduces the appeal of relatively riskier stocks.

But the emerging economic crisis in Europe changes everything. It's increasingly apparent that European economic troubles are here to stay for quite some time, which is likely to keep a lid on global interest rates. It's a bit of a goldilocks scenario for the U.S. economy, as low rates will help our economic recovery to expand without a rate rise headwind.

You would suspect that the pullback in interest rates would help provide support to dividend-paying stocks, but many of them haven't been able to escape the recent market rout. If you've been tracking divided payers but found their dividend yields to be too skimpy, you're in luck. The market slump pushed many 2% yielders into the 3% range, many 3% yielders into the 4% range, etc. In the context of falling fixed income yields, such dividend yields are now comparatively appealing again. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30486109

The Winners And Losers Of The Perfect Storm Hitting Oil Prices

By: David Sterman of Street Authority

When it comes to commodities, you'll usually find a set of countervailing forces that keep prices at an equilibrium. Yet when it comes to oil, all of the factors behind price swings are heading in the same direction.  As oil prices head lower yet, investors will feel both pain and gain -- depending on the make-up of their portfolios.

A Perfect Storm

For much of the past year, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude fetched around $100 a barrel on the spot market. Yet since late July, a series of factors have conspired to push prices lower:

-- A rally in the dollar, which tends to push all commodity prices lower.

-- A further slowing in the European, Japanese and Chinese economies, which crimps demand.

-- A surge in output in Libya to 800,000 barrels a day, up from 240,000 barrels a day in June amid civil war skirmishes near key oil installations.

-- An oil production surge in Russia, which is back at peak post-Soviet era levels.

-- A rapidly rising output in Kurdistan as new key oil installations come on line.

-- OPEC's recent inability to curtail production as much as the market had hoped, leading to talk that this cartel may be weakening as market share becomes more important than pricing discipline.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the United States, which is single-handedly disrupting the global supply and demand trends on a massive scale. U.S. oil production has already surged from five million barrels a day in 2008 to 8.5 million barrels a day in August 2014, according to the Energy Information Administration. The more we produce, the less oil we import. Analysts at Citigroup note that oil imports are now nine million barrels per day lower than they were in 2007. It’s important to note that some of the reduction is due to a drop in consumption as we now drive more fuel-efficient cars. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.investinganswers.com/investment-ideas/commodities-precious-metals/winners-and-losers-perfect-storm-hitting-oil-prices

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part III)

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

By Elliott Wave International

You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did the traditional financial models fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

That's a crucial question to your financial well-being. This series gives you a well-researched answer.

Here is Part III; come back soon for Part IV.

Myth #3: "Expanding trade deficit is bad for economy -- and bearish for stocks."

By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

Over the past 30 years, hundreds of articles -- you can find them on the web -- have featured comments from economists about the worrisome nature of the U.S. trade deficit. It seems to be a reasonable thing to worry about.

But has it been correct to assume throughout this time that an expanding trade deficit impacts the economy negatively?

Figure 8 answers this question in the negative: [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures had a volatile trading week in New York still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 16.83 while trading this afternoon at 17.30 spiking $.50 higher on Wednesday due to the fact that the Federal Reserve basically stated that they will continue to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future sending the precious metals sharply higher, however they are unable to sustain those levels as silver prices are currently trading lower by 10 cents. If you took the original recommendation selling at 20.44 several months back continue to place your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 17.72 which is only about $.40 or $2,000 risk per contract at these price levels as the chart structure has improved dramatically allowing you to place tight stops minimizing monetary risk. Many of the commodity markets continue to move lower, however the U.S dollar reacted negatively to the Federal Reserve statements helping prop up silver prices but I do think the U.S dollar is in a long-term bull trend so I still look for lower silver prices ahead so continue to place the proper stop making sure you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING
[Read more...]

4 Variables That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Earnings Season

By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Over the past few years, a predictable trend has dominated earnings season. Analysts lower their profit forecasts in the weeks and months ahead of quarterly results, and then companies manage to slightly exceed the lowered set of expectations. It's happening again.

According to FactSet Research, on an aggregate basis, analysts lowered Q3 profit forecast by 4.2%, slightly above the typical 2.7% downward revision of the prior 20 quarters. In theory, lowering the bar further should boost the chances that companies manage to exceed current consensus forecasts.

But the typical "cut and beat" game may not be the key theme this time around. As third quarter earnings season gets underway later this week (as Alcoa (NYSE: AA) weighs in on Wednesday, October 8), a range of cross-currents promise to make this one of the more unpredictable earnings seasons in quite some time. Both positive and negative factors are likely to keep analysts and investors on their toes. This is not time to take a casual approach to earnings season. After rising 6% in the first six months of 2013, the SP 500 rose less than 1% in the third quarter.

Here are four key themes you need to monitor to help get a sense if the SP 500 can resume its upward trajectory in the fourth quarter: [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30484997

Avoiding Mental Sabotage

If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our readers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple.

If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his weekly trading tip.

I have heard that 95% or more of all traders ultimately fail.

Have you ever wondered why? [Read more...]

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