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Strong

Run Your Portfolio Like A Hedge Fund Manager

As I was perusing my morning news feed, I came across an appalling amount of headlines about the ever-dreaded 'correction.' While there is value in some of these articles, the majority provide no unique insight.

Here's how one should think about a possible correction: How do I spot a correction? How do I protect against losing my shirt in a downturn? And how do I properly implement any suggested strategy?

First Question: How does one even know if a correction is coming? [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30480377

Doug Casey: "There Is a Rogue Elephant in Your House"

By Doug Casey, Chairman

One time when I was in Burma (now Myanmar), I spent a couple of days riding around the forest by elephant back. Elephants are a fine thing to have in the forest but, believe it or not, you have one living in your house with you. And you should do something about it now, before your house is wrecked and you and your family get stomped in the process.

Any amount of financial success won’t mean much if you get stepped on by the elephant in the room. The damage you routinely suffer from the elephant—not to mention the lingering threat that he’ll go completely berserk someday—dwarfs the importance of the best investment decision you’ll ever make. So, I’m going to invite your attention to a problem of overriding importance: How can you protect yourself and your wealth from the elephant?

The elephant in the room is, of course, the government.

The elephant is your permanent roommate, and it has a permanently big appetite. In the name of “income tax,” it regularly eats 40% or so of everything you earn. You may not like it, but by now you’ve probably learned to live with it.

After you’ve lived out your income-tax paying years, the elephant will attend your funeral—not to console the mourners or to recount your good deeds, but to collect estate tax. In the name of the “estate tax,” the government will take up to 40% of what you leave for the next generation and perhaps more of what you leave for your grandchildren. [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures have been very volatile in the last couple of weeks as prices are up $.30 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 93.15 a barrel in the October contract as I am now recommending a short position when prices closed below 92.50 earlier in the week while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 96.00 a barrel risking around $3,500 per contract as the chart structure is awful at the current time but I still do believe that the trend is lower despite the fact that prices traded as low as 90.43 before rallying severely in the last couple of days. Crude oil prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as the U.S dollar continues to make new highs against the Euro currency and I think that will be the main factor of lower prices, however problems with Iraq in Syria are propping up prices once again but continue to play this to the downside and sell any rally making sure you use the proper stop loss as the 10 day high will start to come down dramatically on a daily basis starting next week so the risk reward situation will be better than it is at the current time. The 10 year note is hitting a 5 week high yielding 2.56% and that is also a negative influence on commodity prices as well as oil as the United States is becoming an exporter as we are not so reliant on Middle East oil and that’s why prices have not been skyrocketing due to the all ISIS nonsense which is now controlling 2 countries.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
[Read more...]

Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 2

By Elliott Wave International

One of the best aspects of technical analysis is also its biggest drawback: Namely, there are far too many indicators to choose from.

Candlesticks to channels, Relative Strength Index to Bollinger Bands, double tops to moving averages...

Geez! With so many options, you're liable to feel like a "hanging man" beneath "dark cloud cover."

But in reality, all you need is one good, solid place to start; one indicator that can be your technical rock of Gibraltar. [Read more...]

Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs

From a post on the HUI at the site last week:

“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out.  Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”

The gap was filled, the top end of the anticipated support zone was reached and indeed, the wrong [i.e. momentum players] kind of gold bugs are scattering back out.  The hard sell down on Thursday was very likely due in large part to the selling by traders with a fetish about gold as a geopolitical or terror hedge.

We should continue to tune out these people and while we are at it, tune out the ‘Indian wedding season’ and ‘China demand’ pumpers in favor of real fundamentals like gold’s relationship to commodities and the stock market, the Banking sector’s relationship to the broad market, Junk Bond to Quality credit spreads and US Treasury bond yield relationships.

It’s boring stuff compared to all that demand in China, Modi’s pro-gold regime in India and of course how we are all going to go down the drain amidst war, terror and an age of global conflict unless we have a ‘crisis hedge’.  The only terror gold investors should care about is that perpetrated upon paper/digital currencies by global policy makers.

So last week was good in that it blew out those who were hanging on through the 2 month long grind that did indeed turn out to be short-term topping patterns.  I don’t mind telling you that my patience was tested by the bullish spirits, especially on up days with Ukraine in the headlines.  I did not think it would take 2 months to resolve, but every time the sector looked like it would crack, a new geopolitical flashpoint would show up in the mainstream financial media.

That condition is now being closed out.  Taking its place could be a bottom of at least short-term significance (i.e. to a bounce).  We have a fundamental backdrop that is not fully formed and a big picture technical backdrop that has degraded in gold and silver and is not proven in the equities.  So whether we bounce only, go bullish for an extended rally or even bull market, or (and it’s still on the table folks) fail into the ‘final plunge’ scenario, we are dealing in potentials, not confirmed trends.

Moving on let’s check sector sentiment.

st.au.optix

The current hook down in gold’s Optix (Sentimentrader.com’s aggregated Public Opinion data) is correcting recent surges in optimism.  This is coming amidst a small positive trend.  ‘Uh oh, dumb money is getting positive!’ think contrarians anxiously.  But the historical view shows that the Optix rises in the initial stages of a bull market. [Read more...]

Gold at $1,500 by Christmas?

The Gold Report: Gold continues to languish under $1,300 per ounce ($1,300/oz), even as full economic recoveries in the U.S. and the European Union (EU) have yet to occur, despite trillions in new debt and stimulus. Meanwhile, we have two wars in the Middle East that could escalate, as well as reports that Russian troops are in Ukraine. With all that in mind, do you think that gold's fundamentals are less important than they once were, or is the price of gold being held back by other factors?

Charles Oliver: Gold is just as valuable today as it was 100 years ago. There was an orchestrated takedown of gold in April 2013. It has since traded between $1,200/oz and $1,400/oz, and this flies in the face of the conditions you mentioned.Silver Wh

"Asanko Gold Inc. has great assets."

We're going to have to be patient. We have gone through a bottoming process. We've had similar conditions before. In 1974, after the oil embargo, U.S. inflation was increasing dramatically, yet gold fell from about $200/oz to about $100/oz in 1976. Then over the next four years gold subsequently rallied to over $800/oz. In this decade, gold has fallen from $1,921/oz to $1,180/oz, but the fundamentals remain intact, and gold will regain its reputation as a unique store of value.

TGR: You used the phrase "orchestrated takedown." Do you agree with the thesis advanced by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) that gold and silver prices are manipulated downward by central banks? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/WFwgxWBXh9M/16243

Good News and Bad News

If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple.

If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his Weekly Trading Tip.

One of the biggest moments for the markets can come when there is a key news release or fresh fundamental data. Buyers and sellers seem to wrestle with the potential outcome, and in the case of larger announcements, volatility goes through the roof. The problem that I see some traders struggle with is knowing what news to look for, and how to trade it. [Read more...]

How is Doug Casey Preparing for a Crisis Worse than 2008?

By Doug Casey, Chairman

He and His Fellow Millionaires Are Getting Back to Basics

Trillions of dollars of debt, a bond bubble on the verge of bursting and economic distortions that make it difficult for investors to know what is going on behind the curtain have created what author Doug Casey calls a crisis economy. But he is not one to be beaten down. He is planning to make the most of this coming financial disaster by buying equities with real value—silver, gold, uranium, even coal. And, in this interview with The Mining Report, he shares his formula for determining which of the 1,500 "so-called mining stocks" on the TSX actually have value.

The Mining Report: This year's Casey Research Summit is titled "Thriving in a Crisis Economy." What is the most pressing crisis for investors today?

Doug Casey: We are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we're going into its trailing edge. It's going to be much more severe, different and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009. Investors should be preparing for some really stormy weather by the end of this year, certainly in 2015.

TMR: The 2008 stock market embodied a great deal of volatility. Now, the indexes seem to be rising steadily. Why do you think we are headed for something worse again?

DC: The U.S. created trillions of dollars to fight the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Most of those dollars are still sitting in the banking system and aren't in the economy. Some have found their way into the stock markets and the bond markets, creating a stock bubble and a bond superbubble. The higher stocks and bonds go, the harder they're going to fall.

TMR: When Streetwise President Karen Roche interviewed you last year, you predicted a devastating crash. Are we getting closer to that crash? What are the signs that a bond bubble is about to burst? [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the October contract are currently trading sharply lower this Friday afternoon in New York at 93.10 a barrel after settling last Friday around 96 in an extremely volatile trading week as we had a $3 dollar down move and a $3 dollar up move before selling off once again because of the surging U.S dollar which continues to pressure commodity prices. I am currently sitting on the sidelines after getting stopped out last Friday and if prices break 92.50 I would be recommending another short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high of 96 risking around $3.50 per contract or $3,500 risk as the chart structure is very poor currently. Problems with ISIS the terrorist group are not supporting prices as you would think as the world is awash with crude oil supplies as the tug of war continues between the bulls and bears however prices still look very vulnerable to the downside as the trend in the U.S dollar will continue to the upside in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
[Read more...]

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