At the moment, crude oil seems to be acting as a free agent instead of in concert with the commodity complex that would play a role in signaling the effects (or lack thereof) of the inflation to date. The target off this formation, if it holds, is 110 or so. But as noted in a previous post, a drive toward 110 would load a significantly higher target, which we have been charting in NFTRH over the last several weeks by monthly chart. [Read more...]
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We've asked our friend Jim Robinson of profittrading.com to provide his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using the Trade Triangles and his experience.
Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of the Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IDIX).
I hope you are having a GREAT week !!!
This week let's take a look at a low priced stock that might be headed for higher prices.
With stocks we use the monthly MarketClub Trade Triangle for trend and the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle for timing.
IDIX has made a double bottom base pattern and has taken off to the upside. [Read more...]
The Gold Report: In your latest newsletter, you advocate that gold investors pay close attention to the Federal Reserve meeting taking place on June 18. What are you looking for out of that meeting?
Brien Lundin: The main driver for gold right now is quantitative easing (QE). An investor trying to figure out where the gold market is heading in the near to intermediate term needs to focus on QE. Investors should look for clues to the future prospects of the Fed's QE programthat's what's going to drive gold in the short and intermediate term. The question really is: To QE or not to QE? The next Fed meeting will be a prime indicator of that, and the one after that and the one after that.
My general view is that the reports of a resurgent U.S. economy are way ahead of themselves and some data points are indicating that the recovery is not that robust and may even be in danger. The jobs numbers will shed some light on this. If such a scenario develops, then the snap back for gold would be pretty dramatic. A weakening U.S. economy would be bullish for gold because it's bullish for continued QE, and that's the real factor for gold going forward.
TGR: Besides the jobs numbers and the Fed meeting minutes, what indicators are you watching to get some insight into whether the economy really is improving? [Read more...]
The Energy Report: Byron, welcome. You recently attended the Platts Conference in London, which addressed shifting energy trade patterns in light of growing U.S. export prospects and dwindling exports from South America and Africa. Has OPEC's role diminished?
Byron King: The short answer is yes. OPEC is struggling right now. The Middle East, the West African producers and Venezuela are struggling. The West African players and Venezuela have seen exports to the U.S. decline dramatically. In countries like Algeria, oil exports to the U.S. are essentially zero, while Nigeria's exports to the U.S. are way down. The oil these countries export tends to be the lighter, sweeter crude, which happens to be the product that is increasing in production in the U.S. through fracking.
The east-to-west trade pattern for oil imports to the U.S. has essentially gone away. This does not mean that the oil goes away. It means these countries have to find new markets for their oil which they are doing, in India and the Far East. But that disrupts trade patterns as well. Imports from the Middle East to the U.S. are falling as well. These barrels tend to be the heavier, sourer crude that U.S. refineries are geared to process. [Read more...]
The following is the opening segment to this week’s premium letter, NFTRH 242. The balance of #242 went on to discuss the technical status of US and global stock markets, key commodities, the current status of ‘inflation expectations’, precious metals and currencies; all in detail.
Taper to Carry
Last week we introduced the theoretical 'taper to carry' scenario whereby the Federal Reserve would indeed 'have the balls' to begin the end of traditional QE and transition the inflation via a new set of mechanics. Mind you, we still get inflation under this scenario, but it would be less stealth and more honest and obvious to the public. Here are the theoretical components of the play… [Read more...]
The Gold Report: Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDM:TSX; CDE:NYSE) recently acquired Orko SilverCorp. for cash and shares. What should investors pay attention to in that deal?
Keith Phillips: The deal involved La Preciosa, a silver asset controlled by Orko, in an attractive jurisdiction in Mexico. From an investment banking perspective, seeing two different, quality companies competing for a junior mining asset in an environment where people thought the merger and acquisition (MA) business was dead was encouraging. First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) made an initial bid for Orko, and Coeur d'Alene was the successful bidder.
TGR: Are high-quality silver assets more likely to be targets than similarly valued gold assets in this market? [Read more...]