S&P 500
1969.95
-8.96 -0.45%
Dow Indu
16912.11
-70.48 -0.42%
Nasdaq
4444.48
-0.43 -0.01%
Crude Oil
101.45
+0.48 +0.48%
Gold
1298.905
-0.300 -0.02%
Euro
1.340180
-0.001220 -0.09%
US Dollar
81.295
+0.085 +0.11%
Weak

Next Gold Buying Opportunity May Be Just Around the Corner

By: John Kosar of Street Authority

Major U.S. indices closed mixed last week, with the broad-market SP 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closing higher and the blue-chip Dow industrials and small-cap Russell 2000 closing lower. The bigger takeaway to last week's lack of direction is that the bellwether SP 500 has been moving sideways for the past month and is essentially unchanged since July 1.

This recent loss of upward momentum suggests some distribution/profit-taking has been occurring and defines a near-term decision point in the index, bordered by 1,986 on the upside and 1,953 on the downside, from which its 2014 advance must resume if still healthy and intact.

Small Caps, Volatility Will Be Key Again This Week
In the July 14 and July 21 Market Outlooks, I pointed out that the Russell 2000 and the Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF (NYSE: VBK) were situated right on top of major support levels and amid favorable conditions to resume their 2014 advances -- if they were still valid. Following initial rebounds, Friday's sharp decline positioned both back on top of these levels -- 1,143 on the Russell 2000 and $121.53 on VBK. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30470950

Why The Next Stock Market Crash Could Happen Any Day Now

By: Nancy Zambell of Street Authority

A "follow-up" market crash could be coming.

I don't mean to scare you, but it's only a matter of time...

The past two happened like clockwork -- seven years apart. One happened just before 2001, after the dot-com burst. The other came with a vengeance in 2008, right after the housing collapse.

It's getting close to another seven years... so what about this time?

Are we headed for a "follow-up" market crash?

 

The very idea of losing more than half of your invested wealth in a market downturn is daunting.

Market analysts claim to know exactly where the market is going, and act like they know exactly when to buy or sell stocks. But how many analysts do you remember saying months before the 2008 financial crisis that the market was going to go down by 57%? Can you name one? [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.investinganswers.com/investment-ideas/value-investing/why-next-stock-market-crash-could-happen-any-day-now-22105

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract finished the week down about $.30 to close this Friday at 20.60 ending on a positive note up about $.18 closing right near session highs as the trend is now lower hitting a 4 week low so I’m neutral this market sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop, however if you are bearish I would sell at today’s price of 20.60 while placing my stop loss above the 10 day high which was on Monday’s trade at 21.32 risking around $.70 for $3,500 per contract as the chart structure currently is very solid. I’ve was recommending a long silver futures position when prices broke above 20.02 in late June while getting stopped out last week at the 10 day low as prices have broken down as the Malaysian airliner crisis has settled down as deflation currently is in the air not inflation as the U.S dollar continues to rally against the Euro currency as many of the commodity markets have been heading lower. Silver futures are trading below their 20 but still above their 100 day moving average telling you that trend currently is mixed and if you’re not looking to sell at today’s price level I would sit on the sidelines and trade another market that has a stronger trend.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

[Read more...]

A Basic Guide to Understanding Reversals and Breakouts

Traders who study their time frame charts religiously will learn how to pick out certain indicators that can help to forecast a trend. Identifying these indicators early will help you to get a jump start on entering and exiting a trade at just the right moment to maximize your profit.

Time Frames


A time frame chart is a simple method used by traders to get a clearer picture of the direction pairs are heading. You choose the length of time you want to study, say 2-hour increments for short term goals or 8-hour increments to study the long term trending of a pair. The chart will show you the averages during that time, smoothing out the variations to make it easier to see the important details you need to know.

Two of the tools that your moving averages will help you base trades off of are reversals and breakouts.

Spotting a Reversal

A reversal trade is knowing when a currency is going to make a sudden move in the opposite direction. [Read more...]

Three Reasons Why Gold and Gold Stocks Will Rise

The Gold Report: Over two days, July 14 and 15, the price of gold fell over $40 per ounce ($40/oz), more than 3% of its value. To what do you attribute this drop?

Jeffrey Mosseri: I don't think it was a very extraordinary event. Gold has been trading around $1,300/oz. We see sharp upward and downward movements triggered by, for instance, something Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said or a negative report by Goldman Sachs. It looks as if gold will stay in the $1,300/oz range for a little while. We'll see which way it breaks out. We believe it's going to break out on the upside.

Douglass Loud: Gold had been running up for a while, and every so often investors want to take some money off the table.

TGR: How high do you believe gold will go?

"We like North American Nickel Inc.'s Maniitsoq nickel sulfide project in Greenland."

JM: The average sustaining cost of production for gold is about $1,500/oz. If gold continues to trade below that level, at some point no new mines will be brought on. Supply and demand indicates higher prices for gold. At the same time, we're dealing with a seasonal trading pattern. Usually the position for those commodities tightens up around September/October. We think this will happen again this year. Higher prices? Yes. How much higher? We don't know.

TGR: Given that the financing for junior gold companies collapsed years ago, shouldn't the concomitant shortage of new supply have led already to higher prices? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/gfnpkkMAG6Y/16156

Have Natural Gas Prices Hit Bottom?

It's been a summer of open windows and dormant air conditioners in the Eastern U.S. as the mercury has failed to break 85 degrees on most days and night-time lows fall down to the mid-50s in much of New England.

And that partially explains why natural gas prices are plunging to seven-month lows. Gas-fueled power plants are operating at a low hum as electricity demand has been unusually tepid. When you consider that late July typically represents a turning point for summer temperatures, this may turn out to be a year without any major heat waves. Good news indeed for residents in the Eastern U.S. after enduring an unusually dispiriting frigid winter.

As demand for gas remains subpar, gas storage facilities are re-filling at a rapid rate, turning gas back into a buyer's market. That's a quick change from six months ago when gas was being consumed at a faster-than-normal rate. And the resulting price collapse has left many to wonder: Will gas prices keep plunging, or have they hit bottom?

The answer to that question: Gas prices are likely to keep falling. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30469387

Miners Must Control Costs to Improve Share Prices: Byron King

The Gold Report: Byron, gold is above $1,300/ounce ($1,300/oz)although not by much and silver topped $20/oz. What was holding their prices down, and what are the fundamentals that will move the prices going forward?

Byron King: The short answer is that, for all its faults, the dollar has strengthened, which holds down gold and silver prices. The longer answer is that gold and silver are manipulated metals. That is, the world's central banks have an aversion to things they can't control, and one of the things that they can't control is elemental metals like gold and silver.

Let's ask why the dollar has strengthened. The U.S. is probably in its weakest geopolitical situation in decades. The Wall Street Journal on July 17 had a front-page story about the confluence of crises across the world Ukraine, Middle East, Southeast Asiaall of which are profound challenges to American power militarily, diplomatically and economically. But the dollar is still holding up. Why?

I believe the dramatic recent increase in U.S. energy production is what's behind the stronger dollar. With more oil and natural gas from fracking, the U.S. is the world's largest energy producer. In addition, we're importing far less oil and exporting a lot more refined product. It helps the dollar.

Still, when I look at the big picture for gold, I see a resource whose production is challenged on the best of days. Output is declining in the major traditional sources: South Africa is in decline; Australia is challenged; some of the big plays in Nevada are getting long in the tooth. [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/_yeyIe_CETs/16143

5 Minimal Peter Cundill-Like Moves For Your Portfolio

By: Tim Melvin

Have you read the book There's Always Something to Do by Christopher Russo-Gill?

If not, it should move right to the top of your summer reading list. It is the accumulated reflections of Peter Cundill. A Canadian value investor, Cundill used the Graham Deep Value Approach to return a little more than 15 percent, on average annually, to investors for almost 30 years.

Cundill once described his approach as looking to buy dollars for $0.40, and he focused almost entirely on the balance sheet. He once commented that he did liquidation analysis and liquidation analysis only. He wanted to buy stocks in companies that traded below where he estimated they could be profitably liquidated.

1. Things To Do

Cundill looked all over the world for ideas, and felt that most of the time he could find enough bargain issues to get his funds invested in such bargain issues and provide above average returns. However, he was not afraid to hoard cash when he could not find enough true bargains to get fully invested.

Value investors today, however, find themselves facing a situation where it is very difficult to get fully invested, because of a lack of opportunities in the aftermath of a five-year rally in global equities. There are a few things to do, however, even in an overheated market.

The most obvious opportunity for those who favor a deep-value approach is the U.S. community banks. Many of these smaller banks face challenges that will push them toward the inevitable conclusion: they need to sell to a larger institution rather than go it alone. The avalanche of regulations is pressuring the bottom line as compliance costs spiral out of control and make it difficult to earn sufficient profits to justify independence.

2. A 'Perfect Storm' For Regional Banks

[Read more...]

The Greatest Risk To Investors Today

By: Jody Chudley of Investing Answers

We've seen this set-up before...

All through 2006 and 2007, I heard some of the smartest minds in the investment game warning about the massive housing bubble that was about to pop. For a long time, these smart folks looked wrong, as housing prices kept going up and up.

Then things changed in a hurry, and we suffered through the worst credit crisis in our country's history and a housing bubble collapse. Anyone that didn't heed the warnings got crushed.

I see the same thing happening today. There have been warnings that we could be in for severe inflation ever since the Federal Reserve rolled out the printing presses back in 2008 with its "quantitative easing" program.

So far, not much has happened. However, similar to the housing bubble, that "nothing" could turn into something very quickly.

After years of easy money policy by countries around the globe, the inflation pump could be primed. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.investinganswers.com/investment-ideas/growth-investing/greatest-risk-investors-today-22097

Currencies, Gold And The Big Picture

Here are the monthly views of the basket cases we call major currencies.

Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by "The Hero" and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time.  In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route.  When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.

Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern.  There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc.  I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root.  Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.

usd

 

Long ago we projected a rally in Uncle Buck’s chief competitor, the Euro.  This was due to a bottoming pattern (formed on shorter term charts) and unsustainable negative hype about the Euro crisis.  The target was around 140 +/-, which is the top of the post-2008 downtrend channel.  Euro remains in a big picture downtrend and if global asset markets start to come unwound in the coming months, it is not Euros people are going to run to, I can tell you that.  Bearish below the upper trend line. [Read more...]

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