S&P 500
1977.18
-0.62 -0.03%
Dow Indu
17082.49
+11.27 +0.07%
Nasdaq
4505.85
0.00 0.00%
Crude Oil
91.35
-3.22 -3.41%
Gold
1210.00
-7.03 -0.58%
Euro
1.263005
-0.005605 -0.44%
US Dollar
85.940
+0.320 +0.41%
Weak

Why There's Upside To Silver's Four-Year Lows

By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Even as investors were re-embracing stocks in 2010 and 2011, they scored really big gains with one of the hottest commodities in the world: Silver.

The precious metal soared in price from under $20 in August 2010 to nearly $50 an ounce by the next spring. In the hindsight, the silver spike was a classic bubble, fueled by inflation concerns that simply never materialized.

Though few people could have guessed that silver would be capable of a 150% nine-month gain, few also would have predicted that the eventual slump in silver would be so extended. Silver prices fell back below $30 an ounce by the start of 2013, and they've been in freefall ever since. A snapback to 2011 peaks is out of the cards.

You can get a sense of just how painful the silver slump has been by glancing at the performance of key exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The leveraged (2-times and 3-times) funds have been among the market's worst performers.

And when it comes to the silver producers themselves, it appears as if sentiment has utterly collapsed. In recent weeks, industry share prices have slumped another 20%-to-30%. In contrast, the pullback in gold prices and shares of gold miners has not been nearly as severe. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30483117

Today's Top 50 Trending Stocks

What does a successful trader do that an unsuccessful trader can't seem to master? They quickly find and get in and out of the winning trades with expert precision. Who does this better than anyone else?  Smart money of course!

More importantly, "Smart Money," such as big banks and large financial institutions, have the capital and agility to persuade large and medium cap stocks to move in a preferred direction. It may sound like they have the upper hand, but individual traders can join them in a move and profit from the ride relatively easily.

The hardest part is finding where the smart money is hiding. So how can you, as a trader, find where the smart money is going to strike next? The answer is simple: You find the top trending stocks! Strong trending stocks have major volume, a clear direction, and sufficient liquidity - this is usually where the smart money is. Wouldn't it be nice to find a list of current, strong trending stocks?

Now you can. Access Today's Top 50 Trending Stocks.

Our latest tool, "Top 50 Trending Stocks," is a dynamic report that compiles a list of the market's strongest movers. This could help you find the stocks that will make a tremendous difference to your portfolio for Q4 of 2014.

No cost and instant access!

It's time you started trading like the smart money - Access Today's Top 50 Stocks list now!

 

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part I)

By: Elliott Wave International

You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did the traditional financial models fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

That's a crucial question to your financial well-being. This series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is Part I; come back soon for Part II.

The Fundamental Flaw in Conventional Financial and Macroeconomic Theory

By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

Every time there is a recession, observers grumble about economists' methods. The deeper the recession carries, the louder the grumbling. The reason that widespread complaints occur only in recessions is that economic forecasters as a group never, ever anticipate macroeconomic changes. Their tools don't work, but consumers of their commentary do not notice it until recessions occur, because that is the only time when everyone can see that the methods failed. The rest of the time, when expansion is the norm, no one notices or cares.

The recent/ongoing economic contraction is the deepest since the 1930s, so the complaints about economists' ideas are the most strident since that time. Figure 1 shows how one publication expressed this feeling following four quarters of negative GDP.

Figure 1

Ironically, once the economy begins expanding again, everyone forgets about their old complaints. The media resume quoting economists, despite their flawed methods, and they are once again satisfied that their ideas make perfect sense.

Conventional financial theory relies upon the seemingly sensible ideas of exogenous cause and rational reaction. Papers are packed with discussions of "exogenous shocks," "fundamentals," "input," "catalysts" and "triggers." Stunningly, as far as I can determine, no evidence supports these ideas, as the discussion below will show. [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 17.84 going out this Friday in New York around 17.55 finishing down about $.30 hitting a 4 1/2 year low as the U.S dollar continues to pressure silver and the rest of the precious metal complex. If you took my original recommendation several months back when prices broke 20.44 which was the 4 week low continue to place your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 18.85 and that will start to improve late next week as the chart structure will tighten up, but I still believe prices look vulnerable even at these multi-year lows. The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and the trend in the U.S dollar is clearly higher and that’s pessimistic all commodity prices, but if you have missed this trend sit on the sidelines as you have missed the boat as you do not want to chase markets that is why I like to find the trend as early as possible as my rule states a 4 week high or a 4 week low has to occur before entering.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
[Read more...]

Buyers or Sellers

If you follow our blog, then you are definitely familiar with trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC. We have gotten such a great response from some of his past posts that he has agreed to share one more of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky and just plain confusing at times, but Larry’s expert opinion keeps it simple and straight-to-the-point.

If you like this article, Larry’s also agreed to give you free access to his Weekly Trading Tip.

A question I often receive is, "How can there be more buyers or sellers at one price? Isn't there a buyer for every seller and a seller for every buyer?"

The answer is yes, but people are forgetting one important thing. There is a bid and an ask (or offer), and only one of them can be traded at a time.

A bid is an expression of willingness to buy at a price; an ask (or offer) is an expression to sell.

If the ES is trading at 1200.50, the bid is either 1200.25 or 1200.50. The answer depends on which way the market has just traded. Let's make it easy and simply say the ES is between 1200.25 & 1200.50, making the bid 1200.25. In order for the market to move from 1200.25 to 1200.50, someone must pay up to get filled.

You may not be in a hurry and attempt to wait to buy 1200.25, but that will usually only happen when the bid/ask drops to 1200.00 & 1200.25 and you are actually filled on the ask.

If you are trying to buy and really want to get filled, you must pay up at the offer or risk missing the trade. Conversely, if you really want to get filled on a sale, you must hit the bid, or reach down to get filled.

Sure, there is someone on the other side of the trade, but without you choosing to reach up and pay the offer the market stands still. Therefore when trades are executed at the offer it is said to be done by the buyers even though there are sellers at that price taking the other side. [Read more...]

Can Gold Act as a Safe Haven Again?

The Gold Report: The World Gold Council, which gets its numbers from Thomson Reuters GFMS, reports that total gold demand in Q2/14 fell by 15% versus the same period in 2013. Furthermore, physical bar and official coin demand were basically cut in half while jewelry demand fell by 217 tons or 30%. What do you make of all of that?

Christos Doulis: Clearly, there has been less enthusiasm for owning gold in recent years. A lot of that has to do with the concept of gold as a safe haven. Six years ago, when the financial crisis was in full swing, gold was $800900/ounce ($800900/oz), but on its way to $1,900/oz in September 2011. The fears associated with that period have largely receded and we're seeing a decrease in both gold investment and jewelry demand, which is often a form of savings in non-Western nations. We're seeing a reaction in demand because the fear component that drives interest in the gold space is down significantly.

TGR: Meanwhile, central bank gold purchases were up 28% year-over-year. Is that the silver lining?

"Cayden Resource Inc. has a quality project that will likely be among the lower-cost producers."

CD: I'm a goldbug in that I think everything that has happened since 2008 is ultimately positive for precious metals prices. We've had a massive money printing exercise. The markets are running because there's so much money and the money has to go somewhere. The fact that central banks are buying gold tells me that goldthe currency between states and central banksis still regarded as an important part of the reserve mix. While the demand for gold among general investors may have decreased during the last few years, the policy makers in the central banks are well aware of the seeds that have been sown in a fiat-currency race to the bottom.

TGR: With the U.S. economy seemingly strengthening, gold seems destined to trend lower in the near term. What's your view? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/os-pPnWTuxI/16271

Serious Headwinds May Put A Damper On The Market

By: John Kosar of Street Authority

All major U.S. stock indices posted gains last week except for the Russell 2000, which lost 1.2% and is also the only major index in negative territory for 2014. Despite the weakness in small caps, the broader market, as measured by the SP 500, has managed to rack up a decent 8.9% gain this year, largely on the back of technology issues.

The Nasdaq 100 is up 14.2% year to date. However, as I have been stating in this space for some time, if and when technology stocks stop leading, the broader market may be in for some significant problems over the near term.

Dow Makes New High, but Problems Persist

In last week's Market Outlook, I warned that the early September new closing high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average had not yet been corroborated by a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which, according to Dow Theory, was a red flag for the overall market.

That situation was averted last week by a new high in the industrials, clearing the way for more near-term strength in both indices.

But it may be too early to celebrate just yet, as potential problems continue to exist. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30482151

Winter is Coming - Here's My Favorite Seasonal Trade

By: Jared Levy of Street Authority

Over the years, I've been successful trading weather patterns as they relate to commodities such as crude oil, gasoline and grains. As unpredictable as the weather can seem, there are patterns, and traders who get ahead of the crowd can exploit them for reliable profits.

Today, I'm going to share one of my favorite seasonal trades with you, and that is the tendency for natural gas prices to rise in the winter months as the colder weather spurs demand for use in home heating.

Source: U.S. Energy Administration

For seven of the past 10 years, the price of natural gas has risen between the beginning of September and the end February, with an average gain of 17.6%. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30481026

How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market: Fibonacci Analysis

By: Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International's Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is the editor of our Elliott Wave Trader's Classroom and one of our most popular instructors. Jeffrey's primary analytical method is the Elliott Wave Principle, but he also uses several other technical tools to supplement his analysis.

You can apply these methods across any market and any time frame.

Learn how you can get a free 14-page Fibonacci eBook at the end of this lesson.

The primary Fibonacci ratios that I use in identifying wave retracements are .236, .382, .500, .618 and .786. Some of you might say that .500 and .786 are not Fibonacci ratios; well, it's all in the math. If you divide the second month of Leonardo's rabbit example by the third month, the answer is .500, 1 divided by 2; .786 is simply the square root of .618.

There are many different Fibonacci ratios used to determine retracement levels. The most common are .382 and .618.

The accompanying charts also demonstrate the relevance of .236, .382, .500 .618 and .786. It's worth noting that Fibonacci retracements can be used on any time frame to identify potential reversal points. An important aspect to remember is that a Fibonacci retracement of a previous wave on a weekly chart is more significant than what you would find on a 60-minute chart. [Read more...]

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract continued their bearish trend down another $7 this afternoon in New York currently trading at 1,220 an ounce trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position when gold prices broke 1,278 which was the 4 week low at the time and if you took that recommendation make sure you place your stop above the 10 day high as I think there’s a high probability that prices will retest December 31st 2013th low of 1,186 in the coming months. The U.S dollar continues to make new highs against the foreign currencies which is very pessimistic gold prices also due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is ending quantitative easing as there is very little bullish fundamental news as all the interest currently is in the S&P 500 which is hitting another all-time high so continue to play this to the downside and if you are not in this market on the short side sit on the sidelines and look for any rally to get short while placing your proper stop loss of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
[Read more...]

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