Visa - Heed Slowing Growth and Lofty Valuation

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech - Visa


Heed Slowing Growth

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) shareholders have witnessed a meteoric rise in share price since the post-Visa Europe integration which provided a double-digit annualized one-time boost to revenue growth and thus was being used as an incorrect growth comparator. Additionally, since Donald Trump was elected president, the vast majority of stocks have seen significant gains, and Visa is no exception, moving from $78 per share in December of 2016 to $126 in January of 2018 or a 60% appreciation. Now that Visa Europe has been fully reflected in its numbers, the double-digit revenue growth ceases to exist, and its lofty valuation is unjustified. Visa’s management has now forecasted revenue growth in the high single-digits for the foreseeable future with EPS growth in the mid-teens, artificially high due to share buybacks. With revenue growth rates slowing to single digits coupled with the past year appreciation and the stock boasting a P/E in excess of 40, I feel that further appreciation is unjustified and entering a position at these heightened levels is not prudent. Furthermore, Visa faces a rapidly changing landscape in the payments and peer-to-peer space with the likes of Pay Pal (PYPL), Square (SQ), Amazon (AMZN) and an emerging platform for bank transfers with Zelle. Blockchain technology also continues to gain ground in a variety of industries, and I feel that it will inevitably enter into the credit card transactions space. Continue reading "Visa - Heed Slowing Growth and Lofty Valuation"

Gold Update: Old Is "Gold"?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Gold Update


Recently, I was looking for my school notes amongst my old stuff for my eldest daughter to help her understand chemistry as my school teacher was a real fanatic on this subject. During the process, I found many things with memories from my youth, and it prompted me to call my old friends and discuss those handwritten letters that we used to send by messenger. We couldn’t have ever imagined that the digital era would come.

Quite often things from the past can help us today. I decided to dig deep into the past on the gold chart to understand what is happening with our frozen gold market these days. Bingo! He who seeks shall find.

Below is the chart with my annotations to illustrate the findings.

Chart. Gold Quarterly (Logarithmic): This “Vinyl” Could Play Again

Gold Update
Chart courtesy of stooq.com

First of all, I would like you to pay attention to the word “Logarithmic” in the chart title, which is usually abbreviated as “Log” in the chart options. It means that the Y-axis of the chart has log scale, which is nonlinear and commonly used for the broad range of the data. Continue reading "Gold Update: Old Is "Gold"?"

Updated World Oil Forecast For April

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - World Oil Forecast


According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil production will exceed demand for much of the balance of 2018, and therefore global OECD oil inventories are projected to rise. Specifically, the EIA estimates that OECD inventories bottomed at the end of March at 2.784 million barrels (mmb) and will rise by 80 mmb through year-end, up 26 mmb from December 2017. And its projections through 2019 show another net stock gain of 34 mmb to end the year at 2.898 mmb.

World Oil Forecast

The DOE forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are based on dramatically different seasonal stock changes that occurred in 2017. OECD stocks fell by over 147 mmb from August through December, according to the latest estimates. But in 2018, it is predicting a net stock build over those same months.

World Oil Forecast

In 2019, it is forecasting a build similar to 2018, but without a first-quarter draw. Continue reading "Updated World Oil Forecast For April"

Will China Nuke Its Own Treasury Portfolio?

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates - China U.S. government debt


If you’re an investor in U.S. Treasury bonds, should you be worried that China may go nuclear? (No, not that kind of nuclear, the kind in the headline of a recent Reuters article about China’s supposed “nuclear option” to stop buying, if not outright sell, its huge holdings of American government bonds).

According to that report – speculation, really – China may consider retaliating against President Trump’s tough tariff talk by pulling its indirect support of the U.S. government, namely its holdings of about $1.2 trillion of Treasury securities. That makes it the largest foreign holder of that debt. Japan is a close second with $1.1 trillion, while Ireland (Ireland?) is a distant third with $328 billion. Altogether, $6.2 trillion of the U.S. government’s total debt of $20 trillion is held by foreign entities or about 31%. That would put China’s share at about 18% of the total foreign-held amount and less than 6% of the grand total.

In case you were wondering, the Federal Reserve holds about $4.5 trillion of the national debt or about four times what China owns. The Social Security Administration owns about $2.8 trillion.

So, is this something we really need to be worried about, even under the remote possibility that China would actually, in financial terms, cut off its nose to spite its face? Continue reading "Will China Nuke Its Own Treasury Portfolio?"

Disney Could Rally After A Long Pause

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Disney


In February my respected fellow author Noah Kiedrowski recommended that you to take a look at The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and supported his view with an extensive analysis of the company, which has quite a positive outlook and sound fundamentals. He has been covering Disney for some time on the Blog and I am sure his focused research could let you find quite useful data about the company.

I spotted an interesting long setup on the Disney chart recently, which confirms Noah’s February outlook and I am happy to share it with you in this post. Now you will have his background analysis augmented with my technical outlook for a 360⁰ view.

Chart: The Walt Disney Company Monthly: Finishing Triangular Consolidation

Disney
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

After examining the long-term chart of this fantastic company, I understood why my colleague admires Disney so much. This stock is like other great companies that are moving all the way up with quite long consolidations. The previous one was observed from 1998 till 2009 with seesaw moves of the wide range between $13 and $44 marks. After it broke loose, the stock just rocketed to the sky-high level at the $122 in 2015 with just minor pullbacks. The RSI then has reached an extremely overbought level at the 88 mark. Continue reading "Disney Could Rally After A Long Pause"