Has Yellen Become A Dove Again?

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Janet Yellen’s equivocal remarks at last week’s semi-annual Congressional testimony certainly might make you believe that a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July 25-26 meeting is hardly a sure thing. Indeed, the odds of that happening are a lot less than 50-50. A lot less.

In her testimony, Yellen remained confident in her previous declarations that inflation would gradually rise to the Fed’s 2% target. “It’s premature to reach the judgment that we’re not on the path to 2% inflation over the next couple of years,” she said. But then she quickly hedged her bets. “We’re watching this very closely and stand ready to adjust our policy if it appears that the inflation undershoot will be persistent,” she said.

Based on the past several months’ worth of inflation statistics, one would have a tough time arguing that lower-than-expected inflation hasn’t become “persistent.” Last month’s consumer price index was unchanged from May and up only 1.6% versus a year earlier, the fourth straight decline by that measurement. That followed May’s personal-consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which fell 0.1%. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%, but just 1.4% on a year-to-year basis, well below the Fed’s target rate and lower than at the beginning of the year. Continue reading "Has Yellen Become A Dove Again?"

Silver Stocks: This Penny Stock Became A Superstar

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


The continued weakness in the silver price offers opportunities to buy silver stocks, which have followed the metal to the downside. This time I selected three of the top silver stocks by their P/E ratio for analysis.

Table 1. Top Silver Stocks By P/E


Image courtesy of finviz.com

Top three companies are:

1. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE:SVM)
2. Coeur Mining Inc. (NYSE:CDE)
3. Silver Standard Resources Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRI)

Silver started to drop into a long lasting correction a year ago on the 4th of July, 2016. Below is a comparison chart of three stocks and silver itself to show you how they performed relative to each other. Continue reading "Silver Stocks: This Penny Stock Became A Superstar"

"OPEC, The Market and Oil Bulls Have Run Out of Runway" - Andy Hall

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Andy Hall has forsaken his bull oil market position. In an investment letter dated July 3rd, he wrote, “Whereas it once seemed positions could be held with an eye to a longer-term secular appreciation, that is no longer the case…. In short, OPEC, the market and oil bulls have run out of runway.”

Andy Hall
Source: Amanda Gordon/Bloomberg

Mr. Hall explained his reasoning this way:

“Hitherto, it had been our view that oil would trend higher as prices would need to rise to a level that would justify investment in more costly sources of supply than just the core areas of US shale. However, not only has the core shale oil resource grown significantly — above all in the prolific Permian Basin — but break-evens have dropped because of secular productivity gains outpacing cyclical cost increases, at least for now…. If the marginal cost of oil for the next 3 or 4 years is headed to the mid-$40 range, then OPEC’s attempts to push prices to $60 seem futile.” Continue reading ""OPEC, The Market and Oil Bulls Have Run Out of Runway" - Andy Hall"

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Last week Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell joined the chorus of prominent industry leaders and government officials calling for reform of the American housing finance system, namely by reducing the government’s role in the business and bringing in more private capital.

Some questioned why Powell should speak on this subject, given that – as he told his American Enterprise Institute audience –the Fed “is not charged with designing or evaluating proposals for housing finance reform.” Still, he pointed out, “we are responsible for regulating and supervising banking institutions to ensure their safety and soundness, and more broadly for the stability of the financial system.” Besides, he noted, he was expressing his own personal views on the subject, not necessarily the Feds.

But what caught the attention of a lot of people, including myself, was the sense of urgency for reform that Powell claimed existed. Continue reading "Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is"

Gold & Silver: Time Machine

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


The Time Machine is the dream of many (especially those who bet on sports) and I’m excited to see if we will be able to travel through time shortly as physics scientists confirmed that it is possible. In the meantime, we could profit or at least be prepared for the future using the market’s time machine.

Last week a textbook example of a “Flash Crash” occurred in the silver market when the price dropped almost 2 dollars (10%) within a minute! It’s amazing that gold was untouched by this event creating an arbitrage opportunity as all discrepancies are subject to speculative trading. That’s why I put the silver analysis first this time to show the map for a possible gold move. By the way, it is quite often that silver is the principal instrument for market movement as it has less liquidity and therefore more opportunities for market “gangsters” or “pirates” to attack it.

Chart 1. Silver Daily

Daily Silver Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

After silver breached the previous major low established last December at the $15.64 mark the map has changed. What was tagged as a first move up turned out to be a tiny countertrend conjunctive move within the small complex correction contoured with the red downtrend. The Flash Crash drop almost reached the downside of the red channel, which could finish that small complex correction. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Time Machine"