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Strong

What's More Volatile, Stocks Or Commodities?

If you said stocks, you'd be right. There's a big misconception that commodities or futures are more volatile and risky than stocks. The truth is, what makes commodities or futures appear risky is the leverage factor. You only have to margin up a small amount of capital, usually less than 5%, to control a large amount of capital. What that means is when the market moves even a small amount, you get a bigger return, or in some cases a bigger loss, on your money because of leverage. If you put up the whole value of a commodities or futures contract, you effectively de-leverage your investment and at the same time lower your risk and return.

For example, say you want to buy 100 ounces of gold. At the current price, you would have to pay $123,500 and you would own the gold. Instead, you could buy 1 futures contract of gold worth $123,500 and only margin up $4,400. Now let's say we have a $10 move in gold. On 100 ounces that would be worth $1000. As you can quickly see, the return on $4,400 is a heck of a lot higher than the return on $123,500 if you owned the gold outright. Which would you rather have, close to a 25% return on your margin on 1 futures contract, or have a $123,500 tied up in physical gold and see a return of less than 1%?

That, my friends, is why commodities or futures are interesting and can be very profitable when you approach the market with discipline. Naturally, leverage slices both ways and you could lose just as fast as you make money. The key here is to be diversified like our World Cup Portfolio.

Here's the 6 individual markets of the World Cup Portfolio shown quarter by quarter. As you can see, not every market made money every quarter, but combined every quarter was profitable. This underscores the power of diversification and disciplined trading. [Read more...]

How To Beat These Billionaire Hedge Fund Managers

If beating the billionaire hedge fund mangers seems like a dream to you, then I am about to give you a reality check. Before I go there, let me share with you some of the results of these billionaire hedge fund managers this year. I'm only going to give you the top three, as they have achieved outstanding results.

Let's start off with the number one hedge fund manager of the year. I'm sure you're familiar with this name, as it seems to be in the news every week. I'm talking about Carl Icahn. Icahn has produced an incredible return of 48.96% year-to-date. That truly is an amazing return, but he's not alone. Next up is David Einhorn with a return of 41.37% YTD. Bringing up the rear with a very impressive 27.95% return YTD is Bill Ackman.

I think we can all agree that these three brilliant billionaire fund managers have all produced outstanding returns so far this year. I congratulate all three hedge fund managers. It's even more remarkable when you consider that the stock market hasn't had much sustained movement to the upside this year. In fact, just recently most of the major indices were flat to lower on the year.

This leads me to the main lesson at hand... with the right tools you can surpass the returns of these hedge fund all-stars. [Read more...]

Dissecting MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio

Today we are going to take a look at MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio (formerly World Commodity Portfolio) that has been tracking six markets for the past three years. I think it is fair to say that the last 36 months have presented one of the most challenging trading environments in recent memory.

So how do we do it?

I put together this very short video which is only 1 minute 45 seconds long and gives you all the information that you need to decide whether or not this approach is one that could work for you. Bear in mind that the World Cup Portfolio is a leveraged portfolio unlike our "Perfect Portfolio" which is not leveraged.

The video can be viewed right here.

Please give us your thoughts and comments on our blog. I think you will find this video very informative and educational.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

Q1: Gold vs. "World Cup Portfolio"

We began Q1 with high hopes of keeping our winning streak alive, just as we had finished out the year on a very positive note with some strong gains in Q4 of 2009.

Q1 proved to be a challenging quarter for the "World Cup Portfolio." Out of the six markets we track, we had winning positions in four markets (that's the good news) and losing positions in the other two.
However, the big disappointment in Q1 was the gold market which produced our biggest quarterly loss of any market since we began tracking the "World Cup Portfolio."

The main reason for this loss was the choppy, trend-less action in the gold market. In the eleven quarters we have been tracking gold, we have made money in eight of those quarters. This is not the time to abandon trading gold, rather it is a time to continue with our game plan and "Trade Triangle" approach that has been so successful for this portfolio. Furthermore we have never had back-to-back losing quarters in gold.

On the brighter side, the grain markets proved to be resilient and just the ticket as corn, wheat, and soybeans all put in positive performances. The only other market to put in a negative performance in Q1 was crude oil. [Read more...]

How Did the World Cup Portfolio Fare in Q4?

The last quarter of '09 proved to be the sweetest quarter for the year for a World Cup Portfolio. For the quarter, we had a dollar return of $16,041.75 before commissions, which is approximately a 32% return on capital. The World Cup Portfolio (WCP) needs $50,000 to run and is based on double margins for every market. Double margins mean that by depositing twice the amount of money that is required by the exchanges, you are effectively de-leveraging the instrument you are trading. We consider this a more conservative approach to the commodity markets.

The Q4 results have proven to be very successful for MarketClub members using this strategy. With a 90% win rate, the World Cup Portfolio stands out as being an excellent investment vehicle over the long-term. It is interesting to note that the only market that has scored successfully in every quarter is the wheat market. The other five markets: corn, soybeans, crude oil, gold and the dollar index have all come in between the 80 and 90% range.

[Read more...]

Q3 Results ... Best Of The Year So Far

We've had numerous requests for our Q3 numbers and we apologize for getting them published so late. It's not that they are bad, in fact, they are our best quarterly numbers so far for the year. Q4 looks to be stellar and we're looking forward to sharing those numbers with you in the early part of 2010.

So how do we do in Q3?

As you may or may not know we track six markets and have been doing this since Q3 of 2007. The six markets are: corn, wheat, soybeans, crude oil, gold and the dollar index.

[Read more...]

3 Potential Mega Trades In Q4

It seems to me that we are at an inflection point in the economy. The government has blown pretty much all of its money and the economic recovery and the economy is still sputtering along.  No surprise there.

So what's going to happen? I believe that we'll have another economic downturn which is going to push the dollar to new lows, push gold to new highs, and push the equity markets back down to their March lows.

[Read more...]

Q2 results for MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" Technology

As we are in the middle of earnings season for most stocks, I thought it appropriate that we report our own results for Q2 of 2009.

We have been tracking the profits and losses of MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" technology for the past 8 quarters for corn, wheat, soybeans, crude oil, gold and the dollar index.

We started this hypothetical portfolio with $50,000, which is approximately twice the margin required to trade the above markets. The reason behind that is that we de-leverage every futures markets and this allowed us to continue to take signals with little or no pressure. The other key for our success is that we are diversified into six markets. Some may argue that the grain markets do not provide true diversification, but I would not argue with that point.

See Q2 results on next page.

[Read more...]

Quarterly chart changes give hints to future trends

At the end of each quarter, I like to see how the market has performed in comparison to the last quarter. Seeing as we are nearing the end of Q2 of 2009, we are starting to crunch the numbers.

So here goes:

Data for the end of Q2 is based on intra-day prices traded on Friday the 26th, of June.

[Read more...]

94% Winners & Triple Digit Returns (Q4 Results-New Video)

A year and a half ago we decided to track the results of our "Trade Triangle" technology in six different markets. The markets we decided to trade were corn (CBOT_C), wheat (CBOT_W), soybeans (CBOT_ZS), crude oil (NYMEX_CL), gold (XAUUSDO) and finally the dollar index (NYBOT_DX). We picked these markets at random, not because we could see into the future, but because these markets historically have had prolonged and therefore profitable moves in the past. Most big markets have one or two moves every year. Our "Trade Triangle" technology allows you to catch these moves and stay on top of the market.

I have truly been surprised and amazed that we have had such big profits, especially in the last two quarters. When I helped co-create MarketClub, I knew we had something great... but even these results would astound anyone.

In Q3 of '08 we had a phenomenal return and one that I did not think we would see again. However, in Q4 of '08, not only did we exceed the Q3 results but we did it in different markets which is quite remarkable. This underscores our fundamental belief that investors/traders should be diversified into several different markets.

In Q4 of '08, the results we had in corn were significantly less them in Q3. Non-the less, they were positive. Our Q4 results in the wheat market were almost double that of our previous quarter's profits. Soybeans on the other hand proved to be very positive, but not as positive as Q3 which was our best quarter ever for that commodity. The star of the show, or I should say the quarter, was crude oil. Crude oil produced an astounding gain of $40,040 per contract in the quarter. This return was practically double our Q3 results and by far our best returns of any market in this quarter. You may want to watch our Q3 movie and see what we were saying about crude oil at that time.

Gold proved to be just that, golden, as the yellow metal produced another stellar return in the quarter. Lastly, the dollar index showed it's best returns in 6 quarters.

Q4 of '08 turned out to be a record quarter producing $78,142 in gains before commissions. This was our best quarter ever and quite frankly it was more than we had expected.

The return on capital for the last six quarters was 624%. The number of winning quarters (for all six markets) was 34 out of 36, that's a 94.44% winning streak. Losing quarters for the six commodities totaled to just 5.5%. (Special note: We are trading six markets and six quarters gives us a universe of 36 individual quarterly results to judge our results by.)

Watch new video here:

In the 6 quarters we have traded the six commodities listed above, we have never seen a losing quarter dollar wise or quarter wise (no pun intended).

Certainly there is no guarantee what Q1 of '09 will bring. Certainly the markets we are in have a tendency to move, therefore they should present opportunities to make good profits in the future.

Take a look at this short video that I have prepared to show you the results. I will go through some of the actual signals that we dynamically generated with  our "Trade Triangle" technology. The "Trade Triangles" are just one tool of our MarketClub service.

You may also want to look at our earlier Q3 video and check out our past signals. We use the same formula and same approach each quarter for the markets we are tracking.

Enjoy the videos. If you have any questions about our results, please give us a call at 1-800-538-7424. As many of you know, brokers love us because we are not brokers, we simply provide educational material to help traders improve their trading.

Every success in trading in 2009,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

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