I'm just a little uneasy this morning ... are you?

Record high volume yesterday on a down day in the Dow. Ouch.

Is it time to fade the rallies or should we be buying dips. That's the argument that is going on right now in the market place.

I am not going to comment on what you should be doing right now in this blog posting but what I will say is this.

IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Let me say that again. IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Why would I say something like that on the biggest volume day ever at the NYSE.

Here's a cruel reality of the marketplace.

It doesn't matter where the markets are headed. What matters most is you get the direction and timing right.

The reality is, all markets are trading markets. They are all driven by market sentiment and perception.

What matters most is that you get the direction of the market right. You can only determine the trend by using pure market action. The easiest way to do this is by using technical analysis and a program that tells you in plain english what the market is doing.

Here's a look at what our indicators are showing before the market opening on July 25th.

Has the first negative signal already occurred. Look at what we alerted short term MarketClub traders to 7/18. The red triangle indicates to get out not to go short. The key level for the DOW is 13,400. A move below this level alert intermediate term traders to exit the market.

Lastly what would totally turn the DOW into a true bear market according to out "Trade Triangle" formula is a move below the 13,000 level.

Right now the major trend remains positive for the DOW, but I still have this uneasy feeling this morning that sentiment and perception is changing.

Cheers,

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If you use the Firefox browser, this is an essential plugin.

Snap Shots plugin for Firefox enables you to place your cursor over a link and see a snapshot of the web page.

I use it and love it. I think you will to when you add it to your own Firefox browser. Plus the good news its free.

This plugin is just one of those cool tools that make the web so much fun.

Download it here.

Can Ben Bernanke single handedly stop the DOW Rally?

You know, I watched and listened to Dr. Bernanke and his prepared remarks for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Financial Services Committee today.

Boooooring!!!

Bernanke said that economic growth in the past year has a proceeded at a pace that is consistent with sustainable expansion after having run at an above-trend rate earlier in the current economic recovery.

The Financial Services Committee should be embarrased for wasting the tax payers money with the dumbest set of questions I have ever heard. They talk about government like they are detached from it and not responsible for anything that has happened on their beat.

I know, I know, I am ranting, but com'on guys at least do your homework so you could ask some intelligent questions.

If you agree or disagree ... you can post a comment at the end of my post/rant.

I would like to ask Dr.Bernanke just two question.

Here they are...

First question:
What about 75 dollars a barrel for crude oil!!!

Here is what the Fed Chief said, “If energy prices level off as currently anticipated, overall inflation should slow to a pace close to that of core inflation in coming quarters.”

Energy prices leveling off ... what quote machine is Ben Bernanke watching. I wonder if he has one (he does), are you plugged in Ben??

Second question:
What about the dollar going down the tubes.

This I found interesting, the dollar is of little concern to the good Doctor Ben, why you might ask. Well it turns out that the dollar policy comes out of the Treasury Department and not the Federal Reserve. So Ben doesn't have to worry about it.

End of story.

This is classic Washington politics, the right hand has no clue what the left hand is doing. That way they can always do what they do best in Washington, and that is pass the buck. No pun intended.

Here's what I really wanted to say today. Can Ben Bernanke single handedly stop the DOW Rally? I somehow doubt it, but you might get a lot out of
this short educational video . The video shows you an easy way to measure how high the DOW should go on its current upswing.

One last thing.

Dr. Bernanke if you have time, call over to the Treasury Department and have them check out this
video on the new world currency

For sure, it's not the dollar.

The rant is over. I feel better now.

Cheers,



Adam Hewison

Can the Bancroft family still kill News Corp's deal to buy Dow Jones?

Dow Jones + News Corp. = ?

A $5 billion history making takeover rests in the hands of the Bancroft family. The board of Dow Jones & Co. (DJ), publisher of the Wall Street Journal and Barron's, is prepared to approve a bid from Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NWS). The $60 a share offer was first publicly released April 30th, 2007. However, Bloomberg cites that in May of 2007, the Bancroft family was opposed to the deal and that the takeover bid would be pushed aside.

How does one family, the Bancroft family have so much clout? The family has been running Dow Jones & Co. for over 100 years and currently owns 64% of the company. The 35 voting Bancroft family members have also set demands that will be placed in the sales agreement if Murdoch gets his way.

One of the stipulations of the agreement will be a guaranteed protection of the Wall Street Journals editorial independence. The family is concerned that Murdoch will use the Wall Street Journal and Barron's as another instrument to spread his political and business agendas, says Bloomberg.

It will, given Murdoch's publishing history be interesting to see how long he can keep his hands off the Journal and Barrons. Remember this is the same gentleman who bought "The Times" of London. Many Londoners still haven't gotten over that one.

Since early July share prices for Dow Jones & Co have flattened. Speculators are unsure if the Bancroft family will approve the board's decision to accept the News Corp's bid. However the stock is 65% higher than the April 30th close, the day that the offer became public.

How will the share price of News Corp pan out? If the takeover is approved by the Bancroft family will we see a jump in price? The power is in the hands of the Bancrofts, it is just an interesting story to keep in mind.

This chart shows how MarketClub has performed since the the DOW deal became public in late April?



Monthly


Entry Date: May 1, 2007

Entry Price: $38.34/share

Weekly

Exit Date: July 12, 2007

Exit Price: $57.02/share


Gain/Loss: In about two month up $18.68/share. Up 48% since the public announcement.


Members Non-Members



-Trademarks shown above are held and owned by Dow Jones & Co. and News Corp., respectively-

Enjoy and if you have any questions please send make a comment and I will get back to you,



Alcoa lost... but MarketClub members won.

Canadian aluminum company, Alcan (AL), had some decisions to make. Who's offer to take... Alcoa (AA), one of the globe's leading suppliers of bauxite, alumina and aluminum, or Rio Tinto (RTP), a leading company in mining and mineral processing. After Rio Tinto offered $101 (USD) per all Alcan's outstanding common shares (a total equity consideration of $38.1 billion), Alcan rebuffed on previous offer by Alcoa for $28.7 billion. Bloomberg suggests that speculators feel that Rio Tinto's bid will spark more aluminum-industry takeovers.

What About ALCOA?

How did Alcoa make out after the rejection? Well, with an open (7/12) of over 5.3% increase from previous days close, and since had an additional 3.8% increase in after hours trading between the 7/12 and 7/13. If MarketClub members had been using the suggested technique they would have been in a position to gain off the rejection of the Alcoa bid.

Monthly Weekly

Alcoa - We were given a monthly green triangle on 11-22-06 @ 30.32. We could have taken this as in initial entry point, or we could have used it to signify that we should be taking long position on green weekly triangles. Let's say we used it to enter. We then use the weekly chart for exits and reentries. See table below for triangle signals loss and gains.

Entry Date Price Exit Date Price Loss/Gain
11-22-06 30.32 12-21-06 29.85 -.47/share
1-19-07 31.17 3-5-07 32.13 +.96/share
4-03-07 34.56 4-24-07 33.69 -.87/share
5-07-07 36.5 6-27-07 38.25 +1.75/share
7-12-07 42.9 Current 47.1 +4.2/share if sold off
Up $5.48 Per Share
Let's Hear It For ALCAN
How did Alcan do after the big news? Well, with an close of $89.6 on 7/11, after hours trading helped AL open at $98/share... an $8.4 per share increase... a whopping 9.4% gain overnight. If MarketClub members had been using the suggested technique they would have been in a position to earn big throughout the whole year with Alcan.


Monthly Weekly

Alcan - We were given a monthly green triangle on 11-21-06 @ 48.46, by the congruence with AA we can see that the industry trend had changed in late November. We could have taken this as in initial entry point, or we could have used it to signify that we should be taking long position on green weekly triangles. Let's say we used it to enter. We then use the weekly chart for exits and reentries. See table below for triangle signals loss and gains.
Entry Date Price Exit Date Price Loss/Gain
11-21-06 48.46 12-19-06 47.22 -1.24/share
1-12-07 49.78 3-1-07 50.11 +.33/share
4-09-07 53.78 6-26-07 81.5 +27.72/share
7-03-07
84.97
Current
97.67
+12.7/share
Up $38.85 Per Share
What's Next
Will Rio Tinto/Alcan try to bid on Alcoa? Does the removal of Alcoa's bid signify weakness... and if so, will they be the next company to be taken over? I think anything is still a possibility. The important lesson is to not follow the hype, but listen to the market. Our club members were guided to a $5.48/share profit with AA and $38.85/share profit with AL. No hype, just with triangles.

If you aren't a member...

-Sign Up For Our 30-Day Money Back Guarantee
-Paper trade these and other markets with our Trade The Triangle technology
-Send your questions and comments my way!

*Click Here To Get Started

Best Wishes,