According to OPEC, global OECD oil inventories fell 22 million barrels in June to end at 3.033 billion. But that figure is 252 million barrels above its five-year average. OPEC has targeted reducing those inventories to the average level, but its own supply-demand projections imply that goal will not be met through 2018, assuming it maintains production at the July 2018 level. In fact, there will be a 45 million barrel build in 2017, and an additional 162 million barrel build in 2018, even if production does not rise after the extension ends in March 2018. This implies that oil prices will need to be below marginal production costs for some time in order to limit production growth.
OPEC reported that production rose by 173,000 b/d in July to average 32.869 million barrels per day (mmbd). OPEC’s 32.5 mmbd ceiling included Indonesia but did not in Equatorial Guinea, and so the adjusted July figure was 33.449. This implies that OPEC produced 949,000 b/d above its ceiling, a large failure, especially considering that it had been claiming to be 100% (or more) compliant with its quotas. Continue reading "Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating With OPEC's Production Rise"
Hello traders everywhere. What are we waiting for you ask, inflation to pick up steam. The Labor Department announced Friday that the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1% last month, versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. Traders scour the inflation data looking for clues on the Fed's next monetary policy move. It's going to be hard for the Fed to raise rates with weak inflation.
Market expectations for a December rate hike fell after the CPI data was released. Just 38% of investors expected the central bank to rates again at the end of the year, down from about 45%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Do you think they are going to raise rates if inflation remains stagnant?
Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "The Endless Wait Continues"
The NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) has hit a number of new all-time highs in 2017. This has many analysts and investors wondering if the market and especially technology stocks are getting over-heated.
The Bulls will tell you that we are entering a new time of economic expansion and that technology is leading us forward. They say the higher than normal P/E ratios are due to the massive growth opportunities these companies still have moving forward.
The Bears, which I spoke about a few weeks ago, disagree and believe we are heading toward the next dot.com bubble. They say the 'Bulls' growth expectations are already built into tech stocks so much so that these companies are priced to perfection, which we all know is unlikely to happen.
Personally, I sit in-between both camps because I do believe some technology stocks will fail to meet expectations but others are completely changing how commerce is done, and because of their disruptive businesses, they will succeed. Continue reading "Tech Stocks On a Run; ETF's To Buy 'IF' you Think It Will Continue"
Hello traders everywhere. The DOW fell almost 150 pts this morning as tensions and worries over North Korea increased. U.S. stocks fell the most in a month, and the VIX reached its highest level since May as American allies warned North Korea against firing missiles toward Guam. Of course, the safe-haven assets advanced, with gold, the yen, and Treasuries all higher.
The NASDAQ is the big loser this morning, losing 1.38% and issuing a new red weekly Trade Triangle, indicating that a move to the sidelines is in order.
Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "North Korea Brings Volatility To The Stock Market"
One of the marvels of the continued bull market in stocks this year – and to a much lesser extent in bonds, too – is that it’s taking place in spite of what appears to be a tremendous amount of dysfunction and conflict within the federal government. But it’s perhaps more accurate to say that the bull market continues to motor on because of, rather than in spite of, the gridlock.
Leave it to the Republican Party to create government gridlock single-handedly – without any assistance from the opposition party. Here is a party that controls both houses of Congress and the presidency and yet still manages to screw things up.
Then again, maybe it’s wrong to think of Donald Trump as a Republican president. Rather, perhaps the correct way to think of Trump is as America’s first Third Party President, who just happened to use the machinery of the Republican Party to get elected, but is no more a Republican than Ross Perot was.
Quite clearly there are three active parties, or factions, in Washington, and all of them are aligned against each other – the Republicans, the Democrats, and the White House. Continue reading "Ladies and Gentlemen: Gridlock Is Good"