Hello traders everywhere. The stock market hit new highs today on renewed hopes of tax reform and solid overall economic data. However, a fight between President Donald Trump and U.S. senator Bob Corker raises questions about the likelihood of a plan moving forward.
President Trump has weighed in by saying that his fight with Senator Corker will not interfere or delay the passing of tax reform. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Oil and gold are both on the rise today as well. Oil is heading higher on news that the world's biggest crude exporters - Saudi Arabia and Russia - may extend or deepen supply cuts and have urged U.S. shale producers to join them.
Meanwhile, gold touched its highest price in nearly two weeks, supported by a softer dollar and geopolitical tensions in Spain and North Korea, though gains were capped by expectations of another U.S. interest rate increase.
Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "Oil, Gold and Indexes Are On The Move Higher"
A few weeks ago Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made some short – but very direct – comments about one of the big banks under the Fed’s oversight.
“Let me say that I consider the behavior of Wells Fargo toward its customers to have been egregious and unacceptable,” she said at her press conference following the Fed’s September monetary policy meeting. “We take our supervision responsibilities of the company very seriously. And we are attempting to understand what the root causes of those problems are and to address them.”
Now, for a person one of whose job requirements is to always speak cryptically, vague and ambiguously in public – Fedspeak, in other words – to call out one of the largest banks in the country and call its behavior “egregious and unacceptable” is pretty startling. That’s why I believe a major fine – at least $1 billion – against the Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) by the Fed is coming.
Not only would it be justified, but certainly not out of line given past Fed penalties against other banks that committed far less “egregious” misdeeds. The fact that all of Wells’s transgressions were highly publicized and committed against consumers – millions of them – makes it even more imperative that the Fed let Wells have it between the eyes.
Let’s look at some recent big fines imposed by the Fed against the banks it regulates: Continue reading "Will The Fed Drop The Hammer On Wells Fargo?"
In the previous Gold & Silver update I warned you about the possible correction ahead. Indeed, both top metals showed weakness, but I didn’t think it would be that severe as we quickly reached seemingly distant supports both in gold and silver. Later I shared with you my concerns about golds outlook as the Fed starts cutting its massive balance sheet this month. This could be a real game changer as market wizards call for another perfect storm for the financial markets. In the charts below I try to model this change for you.
I would like to start with the U.S. 10-year Treasury notes (UST) chart as this instrument has a strong relationship with gold, which I already showed you in August.
Chart 1. U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes Daily: Bear Flag Works Out
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Above is an updated and zoomed in chart from my last post. I chose a daily time frame to focus on the tactical move to see how the chart structure of the instrument develops over the time. Continue reading "Gold Update: Triangular Consolidation"
We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,275 an ounce while currently trading at 1,264 down about $11 for the trading week after reacting negatively to a higher U.S. dollar hit a six week high putting pressure on silver and gold prices here in the short term. The United States lost 33,000 jobs in September due to the hurricane situation down south, but that is having minimal impact to support gold as the short-term trend is to the downside. If you take a look at the 10-year note which is now yielding 2.45% as yields continue to climb which is a negative towards precious metals prices plus tensions with North Korea have subsided over the last several weeks as money flows are coming out of gold and into the stock market once again which hit all-time highs this week. I'm advising clients to avoid the precious metals as they remain choppy with poor chart structure. Gold prices have now dropped about $100 from the September 8th high around 1,362 as this market has been incredibly choppy in 2017 as we are headed towards major support at the 1,250 level as lower prices look to be ahead in my opinion.
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"
The Biotechnology cohort has finally made up much of the lost ground during the pummeling from both sides of the political aisle during the 2016 presidential race. Tweets and excerpts during the campaign trail from Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump put the biotech cohort through the wringer via aiming for drug pricing. The sustained sell-off lead to the entire cohort to sell off from all-time highs of $400 to $240 or 40% in only 6 months as measured via the iShares Biotechnology Index ETF (NASDAQ:IBB). From February of 2016 through June of 2017 IBB traded in a tight range from $250 to $300 while Donald Trump continually fired shots against the healthcare sector. Any healthcare related stocks became volatile on the heels of any statement or tweet from Donald Trump. Shortly after the inauguration, Trump stated that drug companies are “getting away with murder” when speaking to the drug pricing issue. As the proposed healthcare legislation appears to be dead as of now, a level of certainty has entered the picture, and the drug pricing threats are not perceived to be as bad as initially feared. Recently the index has had a resurgence moving to a 52-week high of $335 with a much clearer runway ahead as the political headwinds continue to abate. As the confluence of abating political threats, drug pricing certainty, and continuity of the current healthcare backdrop, I feel the index has room to continue its upward trend and retrace its 2015 level of $400. Continue reading "IBB - A Clearer Runway Ahead"