Hello Traders everywhere. The Federal Reserve and Fed Chair Janet Yellen are stuck between a stronger global economy and a lull in U.S. inflation; the Fed is expected to announce whether it will raise interest rates for a third time this year or back off until prices rise to a level that they are comfortable with.
The Fed also is likely to announce a scheduled reduction of its approximately $4.2 trillion in holdings of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of it accumulated in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.
Crude Oil is on the rise and trading above the $50 level today. The significant move today comes on the hell of news that gasoline stockpiles are at a new 22-month low and exports of crude and fuels surged.
Key levels to watch this week: Continue reading "Stocks Hesitate Ahead Of Fed Announcement"
Greed is one of the strongest human motivators. It is easy to get greedy, but it is hard to push it down after it gets extreme. The main point of my previous update in August was to focus your attention on the price action in the $3 area as the price could hit this psychological level and then retreat. My advice was to book profits and wait to see what would happen next.
I hope that you heeded my advice and didn’t get greedy as copper was pushed down below the $3 level very quickly.
In the same post, I thought that this upside move in the metal that had started last year could just be a consolidation before another drop down. In the chart below I go into more details about it.
Chart 1. Copper Monthly
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "A Tumbling Copper Could Hit The Floor"
Hello Traders everywhere. Wall Street has extended its record setting gains into Monday. The gains today come on the heels of a record close last week where we saw the all three indexes close at record highs. The U.S. Dollar halted a two-day drop and Treasuries slipped as investors remain bullish on the American economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.
The markets focus now turns to the Fed meeting this week. While the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, close attention will be paid to the chance of an increase later in the year and on whether officials will announce the start of a reduction in the bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
If you haven't read it yet, check out INO Contributor George Yacik's latest blog post where he shares his view on the coming Fed meeting.
Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Stock Market Trades At Record Highs"
The battle lines are being drawn for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. The prevailing market consensus right now is that no resolution of the debate – which mainly concerns inflation – will happen at the meeting, meaning there will be no change in interest rates, and may not be before the end of this year.
One side of the issue, which seems to be the prevailing view at the central bank, was recently promulgated by Fed governor Lael Brainard at a meeting of the Economic Club of New York. “My own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target,” she said. “We have been falling short of our inflation objective not just in the past year, but over a longer period as well. What is troubling is five straight years in which inflation fell short of our target despite a sharp improvement in resource utilization.”
The other side, which appears to be the minority opinion, is represented by William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, who isn’t overly concerned about the current level of inflation. “Even though inflation is currently somewhat below our longer-run objective, I judge that it is still appropriate” to raise interest rates soon, he said recently. “I expect that we will continue to gradually remove monetary policy accommodation.” Continue reading "What's Behind the Fed's Inflation Obsession?"
We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,351 an ounce while currently trading at 1,328 down about $23 for the trading week. For the 1st time in over a month prices traded lower and may have topped out in the short-term at 1,362 as profit-taking has ensued pushing prices lower this week. If you are long a futures contract, the chart structure has turned outstanding, and I would place my stop loss as an exit strategy below the 10-day low standing at 1,319 which is just about $10 away. Prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher in my opinion. The U.S. dollar traded sideways this week lending little support for gold prices as the story is all about North Korea and if or if they don't send a missile over the weekend sending prices higher or lower. There is still a high demand for physical gold at this time so continue to play this to the upside. Volatility in gold is relatively high as the higher price goes in a commodity, the higher the volatility as well that is why you can see $10/$15 trading ranges on a daily basis. Make sure you place the proper amount of contracts as I think the volatility will even increase throughout 2017.
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"