The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that November U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.038 million barrels per day (mmbd) in November, up 384,000 b/d from October. The monthly product number was just shy of the 10.044 mmbd record set in November 1970. This gain was on top of a 17,000 b/d upward revision for October, making the total rise 401,000 b/d. By comparison, the Saudi production cut was about 460,000 b/d.
About 200,000 b/d of the increase was expected since Hurricane Nate had disrupted production in October by about amount. But about 175,000 b/d of the rise was new production. The bulk of the increase was in Texas, accounting for 114,000 b/d. Production in the mid-west was up 23,000 b/d. Gains were wide-spread among numerous states.
Production has surged by 846,000 b/d from September through November. This increase is far more significant than the one reported by the EIA in its weekly numbers or forecast by the EIA in its monthly STEO. The interpolated weekly figures for November imply a monthly average of 9.667 mmbd, 371,000 b/d lower. And the latest weekly average reported by the EIA was 9.199 mmbd. Clearly, the EIA will need to upwardly revise its weekly model soon, probably in next week’s report.
Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Surged in November"
We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly futures recap of the market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Natural Gas Futures
Natural gas prices experienced a wild trading week after settling last Friday in New York at 3.17 in the March contract while now trading at 2.89 down about 28 points for the week. I was recommending a bullish position from around the 3.13 level getting stopped out in yesterday's trade as prices are now at a three-week low. I had also been recommending a bullish position in the February contract as we had to roll over into the March giving back some of the gains that we witnessed. I'm now sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as the trend has turned negative. Natural gas prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the volatility has exploded with extremely warm temperatures last week which sent prices down. However, colder temperatures are upon us as this market looks to be choppy so avoid for now & look at other markets with a better risk/reward scenario as the volatility will remain high in February. However, the spring season is almost upon us. At the present time I do not have any recommendations in the energy sector as I still remain bullish as natural gas prices still are cheap, but does not meet my criteria to enter into a trade so I will be patient and wait for the chart structure to improve, but I do think prices to the downside are limited.
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"
The Biotechnology cohort has finally broken out and reached a 52-week high while making up much of the lost ground during the pummeling from both sides of the political aisle during the 2016 presidential race. Tweets and excerpts from the campaign trail from Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump put the biotech cohort through the wringer via taking aim at drug pricing. The sustained sell-off lead to the entire cohort to sell off from all-time highs of $132 to $83 or 37% in only six months as measured via the iShares Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB). From February of 2016 through June of 2017 IBB traded in a tight range from $83 to $98 while Donald Trump continually fired shots against the healthcare sector. Any healthcare related stocks became volatile on the heels of any statement or tweet from Donald Trump. Shortly after the inauguration, Trump stated that drug companies are “getting away with murder” when speaking to the drug pricing issue. The previously proposed healthcare legislation never materialized thus a level of certainty has entered the picture, and the drug pricing threats are not perceived to be as bad as initially feared. Recently the index has had a resurgence moving to a 52-week high of $118 with a much clearer runway ahead as the political headwinds continue to abate. As the confluence of abating political threats, drug pricing certainty, merger, and acquisition activity ramps and continuity of the current health care backdrop, I feel the index has room to continue its upward trend and retrace its 2015 level of $130.
AbbVie Earnings Setting the Tone
AbbVie (ABBV) reported Q4 numbers that beat expectations and updated guidance above consensus estimates for 2018, and as a result, the stock moved up 14%. This earnings announcement stroked the entire biotech cohort and had pumped more life into the group that has seen a steady rise leading up to this statement. Other large-cap companies that have plenty of upside based on its multi-year highs include Celgene (CELG) which is off 35%, Regeneron (REGN) which is off 31% and Gilead (GILD) which is off 29% based on current prices. Even specialty pharma Allergan (AGN) is off a staggering 43% as well. All of these names may be due for a resurgence if quarterly results beat and guidance is raised similarly as AbbVie. Continue reading "IBB - Challenging 2016, Recovering 2017 and Resurgence in 2018"
Hello traders everywhere. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are lower on the day and ending the week lower after the 10-year yield rose quickly to 2.84%, a four-year high. This will be the first weekly loss of 2018 and the largest weekly loss in over a year. Is that a signal of things to come in February?
The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had expected growth of 180,000. Wages, meanwhile, rose 0.3% last month, in line with expectations.
The report sent interest rates higher. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to 2.84% on the back of the report, hitting a four-year high. Investors have been jittery about the recent rise in interest rates, worrying they may be rising too fast. On Thursday, the 30-year yield rose to 3.074%, its highest level since March.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the most widely followed gauge measure of stock market volatility, rose to 14.48, after having fallen in the previous two sessions.
Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Stocks Fall As Interest Rates Rise"
Analysis originally distributed on January 24, 2018 By: Michael Vodicka of Cannabis Stock Trades
There are fewer things that can send a stock soaring like a buyout. And right now - I see a wave of buyouts ready to pop off in the cannabis sector - and I want to show you how you can profit.
When one company buys another company - shares of the company being bought usually surge higher.
Let me give you a recent example.
On January 18, Celgene Corp. (CELG) announced it would buy Juno Therapeutics (JUNO), a promising young biotech for $85 per share - a 91% premium to its share price at the time of the announcement.
That sent shares of JUNO soaring 91% in just seven days - giving JUNO shareholders a big gain in a very short amount of time.
Today - I see a big wave of buyouts coming down the pike in the cannabis sector and I believe it is creating another awesome opportunity for big profits. Continue reading "7 Canadian Cannabis Stocks that Could Soar"