"Silent Crash": Why the Real Value of the Dow Jones Industrials Matters

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Priced in real value, the Dow has collapsed 84% since 1999

By Elliott Wave International

Stock market investors who glance at their screens see the dollar value of the Dow Industrials.

Another way -- the way Elliott Wave International (EWI) prefers -- is real value, in terms of the things you can actually buy with your Dow shares, such as real money (gold) or a basket of commodities.

Clearly, one could ask: "Why is the Dow priced in real value important? I buy things with dollars."

Let's look briefly at the nominal (dollar valued) Dow vs. the real Dow. Then we can address why the Dow measured in real value matters.

On July 16, the nominal Dow reached an all-time closing high of 17,138.20.

"The value of the real Dow is not even close. Indeed, you may be in for a shock. The Dow priced in real money-gold-topped in 1999 and has collapsed 84% since then ... . Had the U.S. maintained honest money, the Dow would be priced at 266 today ... ."

The Elliott Wave Theorist, June 2014

Robert Prechter, founder and president of EWI, calls the collapse in the real value the "Silent Crash." Continue reading ""Silent Crash": Why the Real Value of the Dow Jones Industrials Matters" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the September contract finished basically unchanged for the trading week to close around 97.60 and I have been recommending a short position when prices broke 98.70 last week while placing your stop loss now above the 10 day high which is 102.10 risking around $4.00 or $2,000 per contract as the chart structure will improve dramatically in the next 2 days so if you’re lucky enough to get a rally in tomorrow’s trade take advantage will placing the proper stop loss minimizing your risk to 2% of your account balance. Many of the commodity markets were lower again today due to the fact that the U.S dollar hit a new 6 month high and I still do believe that the federal government wants lower oil prices because Russia’s economy is based on high oil prices and there’s no better way to hurt the Russians than push crude oil back down to $80 a barrel so continue to sell this market as I remain bearish. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average with the next major support around 96.50 if that level is broken I think you will retest the March lows of around 94.25 so continue to play this to the downside.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: Improving Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

1.2 Billion Passwords, Putin and Cyber-Warfare

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Normally the summer months tend to slow down as most traders like to get away for a short break and a little R and R. This year however has been different, as turmoil in the world stage continues. You only have to look at what is going on in the Ukraine, which continues to escalate with Putin's quest to restore the old Soviet Empire. Over in the middle east, the picture is grim and the hatred between Hamas and Israel shows no signs of a resolution. With all that going on, you would think that nothing else could come along to upset the apple cart.

The biggest news this week in my mind was not the Ukraine or the conflict between Hamas and Israel, it was the theft of 1.2 billion usernames and passwords!

This astounding feat was accomplished by a small group of eight Russian hackers. As you may recall, the US and Europe upped their sanctions on Russia, and tit for tat, Russia turned around and cut imports from both Europe and the US. I am afraid that the theft of 1.2 billion usernames and passwords is just another escalation of cyber warfare that Russia is spearheading against the West. Continue reading "1.2 Billion Passwords, Putin and Cyber-Warfare" →

2 Tips To Find A Valuable Options Strategy

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Tim Melvin

One of the most dangerous endeavors that individual investors and “wannabe” traders can engage in is options trading.

Stock and index options bring with them a degree of leverage and time restrictions that have the capability to blow up an account in pretty short order, something that happens on a pretty regular basis. It is hard enough to pick stocks that go up, but to do so in a fixed time frame is even more difficult. To top it off, if you pick the wrong strike price you can get the direction and timing right and still lose money.

The individual trader is trading against large institutions with pricing, modeling and trading capabilities that are far beyond their own. All too often the retail trader's role in the options market is to provide lunch money for the trading desks and market makers.

Start With A Company's Business Valuation

There is a way that individual investors can use options to earn higher returns and add to the overall return of their current portfolio. This strategy takes advantage of the fact that most option traders think only about the value of the option and not the value of the underlying business.

At the same time, most value-oriented investors are not fans of options, as they view it as a high-risk leveraged trading activity. We can take advantage of these two groups' lack of interest in each others strategy to use options to enhance a value portfolio. Continue reading "2 Tips To Find A Valuable Options Strategy" →

A Look At The U.S. Stock Market Using Weekly Charts

Posted on by The INO.com Team

With the help of some of NFTRH‘s standard weekly charts, we take a snapshot of the US stock market.

The Bank index is unbroken from a weekly perspective.  People will talk about an H&S but it is not activated until the trend channel and the neckline (a well defined support area) are broken.  BKX, along with the Semiconductors has been a notable leader to the entire surprise* phase of the bull market out of Q4, 2012.

bkx

A breakdown of support would break this cycle of the bull market (if this is a secular bull market as many experts think, then the bull would live again after the cycle completes).  It would probably be healthiest to the secular bull case for a breakdown to occur into a relatively small cyclical bear market. Continue reading "A Look At The U.S. Stock Market Using Weekly Charts" →