Here's Your Market Roadmap For The Rest Of 2014

Posted on by admin

By: David Sterman of Street Authority

When the Federal Reserve first suggested a gradual tightening of its monetary policy in May 2013, investors began to wonder if the long-running bull market would come to an abrupt end.

A quick spike in interest rates at the time gave a sense that times were indeed changing. Yet investors end up shrugging off that noise: The SP 500 rose an impressive 22% between July 1 of last year and June 30 of this year. Toss in dividends and investors garnered a 25% total return -- roughly the amount investors should expect to garner over a three year period in normal times.

But these are not normal times. The stunning 191% gain for the SP 500 since bottoming out in March 2009 is remarkable in light of the fact that the subsequent economic rebound after the Great Recession has been quite tepid. Low interest rates, a huge amount of global liquidity and very high corporate profit margins all get credit for the bull market that has exceeded the wildest expectations of even the most aggressive market strategists.

At this point, it might seem the wisest path to sit back and enjoy the ride, waiting for another 20% gain over the next 12 months.

Yet before you grow too complacent, you need to take a closer look at factors driving the market higher and assess what kind of backdrop we should expect in the six months ahead. Here are key events and factors you should be tracking.

The Economy

At this point, there are really only two points of economic interest: unemployment and inflation.

The former is falling and the latter may be rising. We now know that the U.S. economy created at least 200,000 jobs for the fifth straight month. That's the first time that has happened in more than a decade. The next payroll report comes on Aug. 8, and if that report also highlights a gain of at least 200,000 jobs, then it's hard to see how the Fed will stick by its "no rate hikes in the near future" policy. Continue reading "Here's Your Market Roadmap For The Rest Of 2014" →

Isn’t It Time You Took A Look At These Two Portfolios?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

How would you like to know exactly what to do the next day with any given market and the price you want to do business at? What if the odds are amazingly in your favor when you trade and approach the market this way?

Sounds like a no-brainer.

The trading approach I'm about to share with you is one that has proven to be successful in both bull and bear markets.

If this sounds like some "pie-in-the-sky," too good to be true idea - it isn't. I have been involved with the markets for many years and this is the one approach that I have seen consistently make money. In fact, it is the genesis of my success in the markets.

This trading approach produced gains of 65.3% and 77.1% last year. Was that a fluke or just sheer good luck? How much does luck count in the market? Very little in my opinion, what really counts is having an approach that is well thought out and has proven to be successful. Once again, luck has nothing to do with that. The only lucky thing is perhaps you're reading this post and beginning to understand that there is a way to make money in any kind of market.

This well planned out approach has produced gains in one of our strategies as high as 501%, with the lowest gain being 35.3% in 2010, it has never had a losing year.

Here are the results from that approach: Continue reading "Isn’t It Time You Took A Look At These Two Portfolios?" →

3 Ways To Improve Your Trading This Summer

Posted on by The INO.com Team

As traders, we are always looking for a trading edge, but sometimes we can overlook the big picture and miss how we can change some fundamental ways in which we approach and make trades.

For myself, one of the key elements is to be disciplined in one's trading. I must say that it’s easy to say, but, it did take me quite some time to master this skill.

Often you want to justify your position, and you listen to someone else who thinks the same way you're thinking, even though you both could be wrong on the trade. When you follow that line of thinking you are doomed, as you tend to keep pointing to the other person and use them as a crutch for a trade that has gone bad. This can create bigger and bigger losses for your account so, much so that it freezes your brain to the point you can’t see other market opportunities. It also gets to the point where you say to yourself, "I’ve lost so much money I can't get out now." This is not the attitude to have if you want to be successful. The good news is there is an easy cure for that, and you must follow it if you are going to be successful.

The one easy cure for this is using stops in the market.

I used to listen to Ron Popeil pitching the Ronco 4000 Showtime Standard Rotisserie on TV and the keywords he always used to say after you put the chicken is was “Set It And Forget It."

I'm not sure if Ron Popeil ever traded in the markets, but his concept of “Set It And Forget It” can be applied to stops. Simply enter your stops and leave them there until either you are stopped out, or you have taken a profit on the position.

You can still take a profit on a position even if you get stopped out… You simply keep moving your stops up as the market moves higher. Doing so helps you lock in a profit when the market reverses. So use Ron Popeil’s “Set It And Forget It” philosophy for your stops. It could be the difference between eating chicken and having nothing to eat.

The other key thing to trading is to trade Continue reading "3 Ways To Improve Your Trading This Summer" →

Chart of The Week - E-Mini S&P 500

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

The major US stock indices pushed into record high territory late last week ahead of the start of the second quarter earnings season. To start this week, we see equity markets on a lower track following strong US economic data last week. Japan and European shares underwent profit taking, and with a relatively light US economic calendar ahead of the release of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, we may see a round of profit-taking following last week’s record high print.

Friday, July 4th, saw a consolidation within the previous day’s range with light holiday volume after the 7 previous sessions had finished in the green. As we open the week on a bearish note, I would look to be a seller in the September E-mini S&P 500 just below Friday’s low of 1973.50 or better. My downside objective would be just above the underlying long-term trend-line at 1950. I would place a protective stop-loss order just above Friday’s high print at 1978.00. Should the market follow through to the downside, I would roll my stop order behind the position accordingly. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - E-Mini S&P 500" →

How to Score in the World's Key Commodity Markets

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Elliott Wave International

If you've ever tried your hand at futures trading, and if you've been watching the 2014 World Cup, you've probably thought to yourself -- Yup. This looks like how it feels to invest in commodities.

Hey, if the cleat fits!

The world of commodities trading is competitive and cutthroat. The action is nonstop. Passes happen in the blink of an eye. There are no commercial breaks, or half times. And those on the field never stop paying attention to price charts, scanning and waiting for opportunity to strike.

And then comes the moment to act. You're the last guy in a penalty shootout. All that stands between you and the goal is the ticking of the clock, fatigue, and doubt.

But if you make it, the reward is like nothing else. Continue reading "How to Score in the World's Key Commodity Markets" →