I've been in contact and reading the blog Psychologyofthecall.com for a few months now and from what I've read they seem to be on top of a number of issues. I asked them to answer one question for me...Is now the time for a bear market rally? Here's their answer:
The ongoing global financial crisis has made perma bears look like geniuses, yet the Psychology of the Call team (POTC) senses the imminent appearance of a bear market rally for four good reasons.
1) President elect Obama's first speech and chief of staff pick, Mr. Rom Emanuel, were very bearish for the market; we are confident both of those negativities will change soon. POTC believes Mr. Obama's goal in the coming days and weeks will be to do everything popular to be re-elected to a second term in just four short years. He understands that half of U.S. citizens are in some way affected by the mayhem of the recent sell off; Americans expect transparent leadership and policies now.
It's that second pivotal term where Presidents are more inclined to show their true colors, especially in terms of openly hell bent left or right policy. We remain confident and are prepared for a lag effect Thanksgiving Obama rally to begin this week, as his centrist appointments and policies begin leaking through hedge fund insiders. We are not waiting for New Year to enter long positions, as that seems to be the easiest and most ‘herdish’ trade today: we remain forward thinking contrarians and are going long the S&P emini contracts into Thursday's death spike.
We believe President elect Obama will appoint some Wall Street friendly names to his first administration, doing so to satisfy his political appetite to win that critical no holds barred second term in 2012.
Yet, if he chooses to select only hard line left wingers, the market will not rally. After witnessing the extremely well planned and hard fought victory, we would be shocked to see a concentrated (leftist) cabinet:. We are confident that will not occur.
2) The pressure from Warren Buffett on President elect Obama to call for a change in mark to market accounting from the SEC, or announce a huge infrastructure stimulus plan plays a factor in our short term bullish call as well.
Berkshire Hathaway just reported a horrible quarter, and even if Buffett is okay with paying higher taxes, we know he does not want to see his almost perfect legacy wither, wilt, and die in his waning years.
Other recent Buffett investments in Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE) have underperformed as well, and both of those companies will survive this wickedly panicked market.
3) The financial sector could begin to stabilize as it shrinks. The S&P is heavily weighted with oversold financials. Approximately 20% of the S&P value lies in financials, so be cautious. Regional banks could begin bouncing with 50%+ buy-out premiums. Rumors abound that Citigroup (C) is very close to bidding for a regional bank with government TARP money.
This would ignite a type of forest fire under financials, forcing many perma bears to cover their seemingly bullet proof short positions.
4) Intel's (INTC) (see MarketClub's latest prediction here, ed note) report of lowering numbers after hours creates the perfect set-up for hedge funds to close or enter new positions before they step foot on Capital Hill, Thursday. Please remember these managers are either long, short, or in cash at this point, so we expect the INTC news to shake out the wounded, weak, and desperate long herd, and flush out the dynamic kings of cash, specifically Steven Cohen and Paul Jones: Story here
These managers are patiently waiting to take over your shares when your fear factor boils over Thursday, turning their greed gauge on auto pilot in search of inexpensive generals. Will you allow them that satisfaction?
POTC feels the S&P index could settle above 1,000 by Thanksgiving, and as the bear rally gains momentum from one or two other positive developments mentioned above, then 1,100 on the S&P could well be reached before we wish you a Happy New Year.