2016: Current Market Themes

A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market.  We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.

But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit.  When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.

Back in April, with the first improvement in the Semiconductor Equipment sector’s bookings, we went on bull alert.  By June 22, we had established a trend in the rising bookings and noted the Details Behind Semiconductor Leadership and the bullish implications that this Canary’s Canary in the coal mine carried. Continue reading "2016: Current Market Themes"

It Feels Like Inflation

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

Last night’s post on the US stock market ended as follows:

“As far as the Fed and its puny rate hikes are concerned, that is irrelevant.  This market is flipping them the bird.  Markets can rise a long way before a rate hike regime finally kills them.  It feels like inflation folks.”

This prompted a question from an NFTRH subscriber about what markets would benefit, and in what differing ways would they benefit if an inflationary phase comes to dominate?  That is a far reaching question and a difficult one as well, because inflation’s effects have a way of being unpredictable (how many would have answered ‘US stock market’ in the spring of 2011 to the question “where will the post-crisis inflation to date manifest on this cycle”?).

Last weekend, in an NFTRH 396 excerpt we talked about Applied Materials stellar quarterly report and what it might mean for the economy, the Fed, the gold sector and most of all the idea of an inflationary backdrop becoming more readily apparent (2003-2007 Greenspan style). Continue reading "It Feels Like Inflation"

Various Markets; Weekly Views

By: Gary Tanashian of NFTRH

It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things. So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.

We update charts like these every week in NFTRH, but I have done relatively few for public review. So here it is, a simple weekly chart update of various markets, with very limited commentary interference from me.

US Stock Market

As you can see, US indexes have so far held critical support. Best projected case would be a bounce to SPX 2000 (+/-). The market continues to roll over on the intermediate trend as of now.

spx, ndx and dow

If the above is suspect to bearish, the broader US indexes are just bearish. Lower lows and lower highs abound and resistance is noted. Continue reading "Various Markets; Weekly Views"

3 Ways To Profit From Oil - No Matter Where The Prices Are

By: Dave Forest of Street Authority

I recently returned from a three-week stint in Asia. After a long trip I always take time to go through my e-mail and catch up on news and reports coming in from across the commodities world.

One small but revealing item caught my eye.

No, I'm not talking about the collapse in oil prices. In fact, as I'll explain in a moment, the way my Scarcity Real Wealth readers and I will profit from this has nothing to do with oil prices at all.

Let me explain... Continue reading "3 Ways To Profit From Oil - No Matter Where The Prices Are"

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30496794

Commodities Recovery: An FX Game Changer?

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


It's been less than a week since the big chiefs of the commodities world met at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, situated along the beautiful banks of Lake Geneva, yet already the markets have begun to adjust its collective expectations. So what's all the fuss about?

Quite simply, all of the commodity moguls, from Gunvor to Glencore to Vitol, all among the largest private companies in the business, have proffered one clear message and it is this: That they, nearly to a one, expect a healthy recovery in commodity prices. With all of the big shots expressing an upbeat view it becomes clear that they are acting on far more information than the rest of us, as one might surely expect, as being in the commodity business allows them ready access to more tangible and viable data. That nearly unanimous upbeat tone should be taken as a rather clear sign that we are about to see a bounce back in commodity prices. Surely, with currencies such as the Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie and the Norwegian Krone, and many more currencies beyond those, being highly sensitive to commodities prices, we are likely to see perhaps a significant impact in the FX arena.

Two Big Predictions

Although the talk at the Commodities Summit was on commodity prices, in general, it was evident that two sectors had drawn more attention than the others. Oil, naturally, because of its importance to the global economy but also Iron Ore, a key ingredient in the making of steel and one of the major commodities exported to China. Continue reading "Commodities Recovery: An FX Game Changer?"