Copper Update: 1-Year After The Election Of Donald Trump

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


American Dream

One year has passed since President Donald Trump was elected to office. That month I wrote a post about copper’s ultimate monthly performance compared to other commodities thanks to the new president’s promises of huge infrastructure rebuilding.

Below is a 1-year performance chart of copper to see how the metal has been doing since Election Day.

Chart 1. 1-Year (from November 8th, 2016) Copper Performance

Cooper Performance One Year
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Cooper gained a hefty 25% for the period with a peak of around 33% that it hit last month. In the post-election months copper exploded to the upside, but then the euphoria in the market was changed with profit taking erasing earlier gains. Continue reading "Copper Update: 1-Year After The Election Of Donald Trump"

A Tumbling Copper Could Hit The Floor

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Greed is one of the strongest human motivators. It is easy to get greedy, but it is hard to push it down after it gets extreme. The main point of my previous update in August was to focus your attention on the price action in the $3 area as the price could hit this psychological level and then retreat. My advice was to book profits and wait to see what would happen next.

I hope that you heeded my advice and didn’t get greedy as copper was pushed down below the $3 level very quickly.

In the same post, I thought that this upside move in the metal that had started last year could just be a consolidation before another drop down. In the chart below I go into more details about it.

Chart 1. Copper Monthly

Monthly Chart Copper
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "A Tumbling Copper Could Hit The Floor"

Copper Eyes $3 Amid Upbeat Chinese Data

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Back in May, I posted an update for copper where I shared my concerns about the possible negative impacts of the cooling Chinese economy. At the same time the technical chart didn’t confirm those concerns and on the contrary, showed a possible upside move for the metal.

In this post, I would like to share some macro economic charts and an update of the technical chart.

Chart 1. Copper Vs China Industrial Production (Monthly)

China Industrial Production vs. Copper
Chart courtesy of tradingeconomics.com

I chose the period of the chart above from the start of 2016 intentionally to highlight the time when the metal began to consolidate after a huge drop down. Continue reading "Copper Eyes $3 Amid Upbeat Chinese Data"

Copper Has Exploded With Trump's Win

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It looks like we can name the top beneficiary of Mr. Trump’s win.

Chart 1. 1-Month Futures Relative Performance: Copper Is Unrivaled As Trump Favors Infrastructure

Copper Futures Performance
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

It’s amazing that the ultimate gainer during the final election period is the metal, not the stock index or currency. Besides that in the top three, there is another metal – palladium, which is also an industrial metal (used in catalyst for the automotive industry). In the past month, which was hot and dramatic, copper topped the ranking with a +17% gain as the U.S. dollar only scored a +4% gain and the S&P 500 scored even less with a +2% gain.

I think that every shift in the White House gives people hope for positive change. Copper buyers are hoping that the new president will fix the country's aging infrastructure system, which requires an enormous amount of copper and other industrial metals to be procured. "Rebuild the country's infrastructure; nobody can do that like me, believe me," he said. Giant projects require huge expenses; Mr. Trump pledged to spend up to $500bn upgrading roads, railways, airports and bridges across the US. That’s it; it was enough for the speculators, mainly from China, to lift the price of the metal.

Is this euphoria going to continue? Let’s look at the chart below for answers. Continue reading "Copper Has Exploded With Trump's Win"

Copper Waits If Oil Keeps Upside; China Is In Focus

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Chart 1. Crude Oil-Copper Correlation: Gap Widened

Crude Oil-Copper Correlation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Another attempt by oil to close above the psychologically important $50 level (black dashed horizontal line) has failed. This was the third and a good try, and it was after a good correction in July, which makes bulls nervous as they lose their patience. Copper couldn’t keep the correlation gains achieved in July as it didn’t follow the rising crude last month and on the contrary, it moved the opposite way below the $2.2 level. The gap between them widened.

It’s not all bad news. There are at least two positive factors: Continue reading "Copper Waits If Oil Keeps Upside; China Is In Focus"