Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating for OPEC

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Arrogant OPEC members thought they could beat American shale oil producers into submission in a market share battle. But instead, they caught a tiger by the tail, and now the tiger is turning on them.

OPEC producers were bragging back in late 2014 that they had much lower costs of production than American shale oil producers and could easily win back market share by undercutting their prices. But they failed to take into account that they needed higher prices than shale oil producers because oil revenues largely support their national budgets.

Low oil prices caused huge national budget deficits in OPEC countries. They did hurt the smaller, leveraged shale producers; however, they were able to take advantage of the bankruptcy laws in the U.S., not a real option for the producing countries. Their best response is to devalue their currencies, but there are a host of economic issues associated with exercising that option.

Fresh data were reported by OPEC and the U.S. Energy Department recently. The data imply that global oil stocks will rise, instead of decline in 2017, even with the OPEC-non-OPEC production cutbacks. Continue reading "Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating for OPEC"

OPEC Oil Export Revenues Lowest Since 2003

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


But No Agreement To Cut Production Likely

OPEC President, H.E. Dr. Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, Qatar's Minister of Energy and Industry, issued a press release August 8th announcing that an informal meeting of OPEC member countries would take place on the sidelines of the 15th International Energy Forum in Algeria from 26 to 28 September 2016. There was an initial price rise, but that faded on Tuesday and Wednesday. Continue reading "OPEC Oil Export Revenues Lowest Since 2003"

Speculators' Risk Assessments Key to Crude Price Changes

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


August crude futures prices edged $0.20 higher in the week ending July 12th (to correspond to the data below), closing at $46.80. However, prices are down about 7% since early June when a confluence of events caused supply disruptions in multiple locations.

Crude Oil Prices

Though U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped more than 20 million barrels since the end of April, petroleum product stocks reached a new peak in the week ending July 8th. Continue reading "Speculators' Risk Assessments Key to Crude Price Changes"

Charting The Energies Data Release

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Each week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports estimates for crude oil and petroleum products. These supply, demand and inventory estimates are used by traders to assess the inventory surplus (or deficit), the supply-demand balance and whether the market is tightening or not. The best measure of the latter is to look at the crude stock change and petroleum product stock change graphs.

These stocks and trends are best understood in perspective and so comparisons are made to previous years. Interpreting the data reported by the EIA might otherwise be difficult or time-consuming.

It is important to note that these estimates are provided from surveys and EIA models and are subject to revision. The EIA crude production data, in particular, has been revised substantially in monthly data released a few months after the weeklies.

US Crude Oil Production 4 Week

Other US Energy Supplies

US Crude Production + Other Energy

US Net Crude Oil Imports 4 Week


Continue reading "Charting The Energies Data Release"

Charting The Energies Data Release

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Each week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports estimates for crude oil and petroleum products. These supply, demand and inventory estimates are used by traders to assess the inventory surplus (or deficit), the supply-demand balance and whether the market is tightening or not. The best measure of the latter is to look at the crude stock change and petroleum product stock change graphs.

These stocks and trends are best understood in perspective and so comparisons are made to previous years. Interpreting the data reported by the EIA might otherwise be difficult or time-consuming.

It is important to note that these estimates are provided from surveys and EIA models and are subject to revision. The EIA crude production data, in particular, has been revised substantially in monthly data released a few months after the weeklies.

US Crude Production, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

Other US Supply Four Week Trends, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

US Crude Production and Other Supply, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

US Net Crude Imports, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016


Continue reading "Charting The Energies Data Release"