Hello MarketClub members everywhere. The Dollar has rallied while U.S. stocks have fluctuated this morning. The reason for the jump is retail sales; retail purchase jumped in April to the highest levels in a year. This indicates that consumer spending could help the U.S. economy recover from its early-year slowdown and possibly give the Fed a reason to raise rates next month.
Purchases climbed 1.3 percent last month, beating the economists estimates of a 0.8 percent gain. It's the biggest gain since March 2015 and comes after a 0.3 percent March drop that was smaller than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed Friday in Washington. Continue reading "Dollar Jumps After Retail Sales Report"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Not sure if you live in the rain soaked mid-Atlantic states, but enough already with the rain! It is depressing. The reason I bring this up is the erratic and somewhat depressing action in the stock market.
On Tuesday we watched a massive rally in stocks and everyone was singing happy days are here again. Yesterday, reality and gravity came into the market and took away practically all of Tuesday's gains.
As I said on Monday when I talked about "The Next Big Swing", I believe that the markets are putting in a major top as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have all flashed red weekly Trade Triangles indicating to be out of the market and on the sidelines.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
So sad about Apple, here is a stock that was the "apple of every investors' eye" and now this once super stock is now in the dumpster. The question is, with all the Trade Triangles red and pointed lower for Apple, is it just a false signal or is this really the start of a bigger problem? I believe that Apple has some serious hurdles ahead and as the weeks and months pass these problems will come to the forefront.
The biggest problem for Apple right now is that it is not seen as an innovative growth company. Can anyone say "Nokia" and not wonder what happened to this once-leader in the mobile phone market? The next problem Apple has, and this could well be its number one problem, is perception. Apple is just not perceived as a "cool" company anymore. Apple's third problem is expanding its market for its cash cow iPhone. It very much looks like China wants to put the kibosh on any further Apple iPhone sales as they really want to sell their own smart phones (so much for free trade).
The next big psychological level for Apple is $90.00. Once we see around $89, you will see many more investors throw in the towel. On Thursday the 28th of April, Carl Icahn stated on CNBC that he no longer owned any Apple stock. MarketClub's Trade Triangles exited Apple six days earlier at $104.88. I am guessing Mr. Icahn exited around the same time before he made his big announcement on CNBC.
Continue reading "One Of These Markets Is Going Down Big Time"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. The U.S. economy created 160,000 jobs in April vs. the estimated 202,000 that economist were expecting, However, the unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent.
On a brighter note, wages rose during the month, with average hourly earnings up 8 cents an hour, representing a 2.5% annualized gain. The average work week also edged higher to 34.5 hours, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The indexes fell briefly after the report was announced this morning, but have since regained some ground and are currently trading close to their market open.
Key levels to watch this week:
S&P 500 (CME:SP500): 2,111.05
Dow (INDEX:DJI): 17,580.38
NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP): 4,969.32
Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO): 1,294.11
Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.M16.E): 46.07
INO.com and MarketClub.com
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. Like many people around the world, I was watching the events unfold last night in Indiana.
The two big surprises to me were the fact that Ted Cruz suspended his campaign and that Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary. So what does all of this mean and how likely will it affect the markets?
For some time now the market has been moving sideways and looks as though it's reflecting the lower growth rates that we are seeing. Occasionally you'll see it pop, but then the market just seems to fall back under its own weight. The stock market is a forward-looking vehicle which looks ahead 6 to 9 months into the future. I think it's predicting that the battle between the representatives of both the Democrat and Republican parties will get nasty. All of which will translate into negative news for the stock market in the interim.
Having said all that, I'm going to do what I always do and that is separate fiction from fact with the use of the Trade Triangles. What I mean by that is if everyone says a stock should go up, but the stock is going down, then you have to understand that the trend is down and not what everyone wishes it should be. Continue reading "It Looks Like Indiana Changed The World Last Night"
Hello MarketClub Members everywhere, Adam Hewison here, wishing you a happy and prosperous May. I believe this month is going to be a very pivotal one for the stock market.
In the back of many traders' minds is the old market adage, "sell in May and go away". Is that what is going to happen this May? It is perhaps a little too early to tell as there are many, many factors in play the least of which is, of course, the presidential election which has electrified and gripped the country in a way that I have never seen before. Like always, I'm going to rely on the Trade Triangles to tell me what is going on in the marketplace.
This morning, Warren Buffett indicated that he would take his money out of the banks if he had to pay them to keep his money. What he was referring to was negative interest rates. Berkshire Hathaway, which is the operation that Warren Buffett runs, is a conglomerate of companies and has about $60 billion in cash that it keeps in the bank. With the current low-interest rates, Berkshire Hathaway is earning about $600 million a year as opposed to the several billion of dollars it would earn in a more normal interest rate environment.
So in essence when one of the top investors in the world indicates that he would pull his money out of banks, he was saying to Janet Yellen, the head of the Fed, to back off the idea of negative interest rates. Way to go Warren - I think you win this one. Continue reading "Did Warren Buffett Just Shoot Down Negative Interest Rates?"