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Weak

Charting The Energies Data Release

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Each week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports estimates for crude oil and petroleum products. These supply, demand and inventory estimates are used by traders to assess the inventory surplus (or deficit), the supply-demand balance and whether the market is tightening or not. The best measure of the latter is to look at the crude stock change and petroleum product stock change graphs.

These stocks and trends are best understood in perspective and so comparisons are made to previous years. Interpreting the data reported by the EIA might otherwise be difficult or time-consuming.

It is important to note that these estimates are provided from surveys and EIA models and are subject to revision. The EIA crude production data, in particular, has been revised substantially in monthly data released a few months after the weeklies.

US Crude Production, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

Other US Supply Four Week Trends, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

US Crude Production and Other Supply, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

US Net Crude Imports, 4 Week Trend, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016


[Read more...]

Oil Climbs over $50: Can Investors Bank on a Recovery?

The price of a barrel of oil has almost doubled from its low of $28 at the start of the year, prompting speculation that a recovery is underway, which may result in the revival of companies in the exploration, production and services sectors that have foundered since prices collapsed in 2015.

Oil Supply Graph

According to news reports published today (Thursday, May 26), the pop above $50/bbl can be attributed to a drop in supply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 20, 2016" notes that "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week."

Since breaking the mark the price has sunk below the $50 level, but hovers in the vicinity, as it has for the past few weeks. [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theenergyreport/caoK/~3/zeVPBxSjFLI/16990

Copper Bites The Dust Behind Strong Oil

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


All of the top commodities have rebounded amid the dollar's weakness recently, but copper didn't follow the pack to make gains. I think we should take a chance as this misbehavior will not last for long.

Chart 1. Copper-Oil Correlation: Huge Divergence!

Copper-Oil Correlation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The crude oil is very strong these days, although last time we have been witnessing its comparative weakness to copper. It looks like the Double Bottom reversal pattern is still making the game for oil with the first strong barrier at the $50 level.

This time, copper overreacted to the short-lived drop of crude hitting the $2.06 area, and this gap that we can see on the chart above kept at the following strong rebound. And then another weird thing happened – crude oil had a minor pullback and continued its upward move while copper overreacted again down to the previous low area at $2.06, this time with even larger divergence. Now look at the left part of the chart, the current gap reminds me the one-year-old situation – oil had stalled at the end of May 2015 while copper overcame it with a new high and then it dropped sharply to run down crude. Therefore, there is a high probability of copper catching up soon with the current oil price corresponding to $2.40-2.50 copper price levels.

Let's look at the copper chart below to find it out. [Read more...]

Oil And Trump Both Need To Pause And Catch Their Breath

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Oil has come a long ways, in really short order, rising from $26.21 on February 11 to over $38 as of March 31 (a 46% increase).

Hedge funds have become “as bullish on crude as they’ve ever been, according to the latest CFTC data,” said CNBC’s Melissa Lee on Wednesday.

Is the bullishness justified? Let’s try to sort all this out.

To start, here’s video of a Lee’s and Timothy Seymour’s CNBC interview of PR Advisors founder Robert Raymond. To me, Raymond’s analysis makes a lot of sense. See what you think. I’ve excerpted several statement from Mr. Raymond, followed by my comments (labeled Feik) to give you my view.

Raymond: “(The bullishness) is actually part of what has us concerned.”

Feik: I agree. John Templeton provided a favorite investing maxim of mine (and of many others) when he said, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” With so many people trying to bottom-fish in oil and energy right now, I don’t see the kind of pessimism or skepticism that sparks bull markets. So, like Mr. Raymond, that has me concerned. [Read more...]

Copper Update: Follow The Crude?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Old trading wisdom says, "The Trend is your friend." I hope that you also prefer trending markets as it is the clearest action of market unity. I was patiently waiting for the upside move in oil to exhaust itself and see a clear break of the trend with a daily close and the following open to be below that close. And it happened today. So let's think about the coming opportunities.

Chart 1: Copper-Crude Oil Correlation: Gap Closed

Chart of the Copper-Crude Oil Correlation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Oil finally managed to close the gap with the copper thanks to a very sharp trend amid a flat move in copper. Although copper peaked earlier than oil, the former started down first, as usual. They began to diverge again as oil fell below the blue support line while copper bounced up from its Thursday low. We will see if oil is still an early indicator of the copper move and if will they both hit new bottoms.

I refreshed the daily charts below to show you the recent moves in detail. [Read more...]

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