S&P 500
+1.24 +0.06%
Dow Indu
-14.90 -0.08%
+12.27 +0.24%
Crude Oil
-0.67 -1.60%
-10.625 -1.00%
0.0000 0.00%
US Dollar
+0.224 +0.29%

Will OPEC Be Turkeys Again?

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

Last year, while we Americans were busy overindulging on turkey and all the fixings, OPEC ministers pulled a fast one on us. While we innocently watched football and took naps, the price of WTI crude plummeted from $74 to $68 in response to OPEC’s announcement it would leave its oil production target unchanged at 30 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Until that weekend, oil in the $60s or $70s seemed unsustainably low.

Of course, even before OPEC’s big Turkey Day declaration, oil had already fallen about 30% from its June highs of $107, due to burgeoning supplies. But the summer swoon turned out to be just the warmup for the rest of oil’s big 17-month collapse (so far). OPEC’s Thanksgiving 2014 meeting sent prices reeling and continued pressures have kept crude near its lows (around $40) even today. [Read more...]

Copper Update: "Black Gold" Is Too Wild

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals

Last time I shared with you a clear signal from Crude oil to short Copper for a good dip down. Oil has dropped as foreseen from the $47.7 level. That's down a good $8 (17%) and it dragged Copper down along the way. This confirms Copper's tight relationship with Crude oil. Copper plummeted for a nice gain from a short position which has reached .35 (15% smaller than from Oil short) on Friday's low ($2.03). My original targets haven’t been met in both instruments ($ 37.7 Oil and $1.9 Copper), and that is why I would like to discuss my concerns with you.

Again we will start with the leading instrument in my regular cross-instrument analysis. [Read more...]

The Winner Of The Natural Gas Boom Isn't Who You Think...

By: Jim Nelson of Street Authority

The energy market is officially broken.

That's according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

On November 10, the group announced that oil prices will remain low for a long time.

Next year, the agency is forecasting a barrel of crude will go for just $60... and only $80 by 2020.

For hundreds of U.S. companies caught up in the shale oil boom over the last decade, that's disastrous news. At $60 a barrel, many oil companies will not generate enough revenue to break even. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.streetauthority.com/node/30621371

Government Sells Low

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

What will oil prices be when the U.S. government begins selling tens of millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in 2018?

The House passed a federal budget on Wednesday – which is reportedly on its way to likely Senate passage and Presidential signature – calling for the government to sell at least 58 million barrels of oil from the SPR over an 8-year period beginning in 2018. The SPR currently holds about 695 million barrels in 4 sites along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Per the budget bill, the U.S. may sell up to an additional $2 billion dollars’ worth of oil from the reserve to build new pipelines and otherwise modernize infrastructure. That program would represent an incremental 43.5 million barrels based on today’s prices, bringing the total number of barrels to be sold up to a possible 101.5 million. At today’s rates, that could add about $4.7 billion into the US Treasury.

Or… [Read more...]

Copper Update: Crashing Crude Oil Lures Down Melting Copper

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals

In my previous Copper update in September, I proposed readers to cover shorts in Copper ($2.32 level) and to watch Crude Oil for further clues as the “black gold” rocketed for a worrisome $10 in 3 days while Copper was quietly sleeping, unaware in its sideways “bed”. Indeed, the metal started to elevate with a two-day gap following Crude Oil, confirming that the signal was valid, and Copper reached $2.5.

Crude Oil Daily Chart: Bears Have Attacked and Bulls At Halfway

Crude Oil Daily Chart
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Let’s start from the leading instrument’s chart above. Last time, I assumed that Crude oil should have reverse down ahead of the downtrend touching a point at $53 and it reversed earlier than I expected – just below $51. This was due to huge selling pressure in the market. [Read more...]

Ride The Oil Recovery With This Driller

Daniel Cross - INO.com Contributor - Equities

Contrarian plays can often pay off for investors that are willing to weather some short-term volatility. The oil industry has experienced pain for over a year now which began late in the summer of last year as oil prices fell to lows that hadn't been seen in a decade. This weakness has created some value opportunities, though, with oil stocks now trading at discounted prices.

Global growth concerns have weighed heavily on energy demands while a supply glut has kept oil low. However, oil may be facing a bullish cycle over the next quarter with more upside to come for 2016. Demand is growing again and oil supply for next year is estimated to be tighter than previously expected. Since August, oil prices have traded in the $45 to $50 range indicating that it has finally settled and reached a bottom. [Read more...]

Year To Date Dynamics: Metals Versus Top Assets

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals

Today I prepared for you the year-to-date comparative dynamics of the metals versus the top financial instruments including the Dollar Index, crude oil and the S&P 500 index.

Gold Comparison Chart
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

As seen in the above graph, half of the instruments started the year on an upbeat tune, lead by Silver and followed by Gold, Platinum and the Dollar Index. The other half started with a nose-diving fall, especially crude oil followed by Copper, Palladium and the S&P 500 bringing up the rear. [Read more...]

Copper Update: Crude Oil Signals To Cover Shorts

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals

Last month, I published a post about the correlation of the World GDP and Copper prices. I also covered the close correlation of Crude Oil and Copper prices.

Chart 1 Crude Oil weekly: Sharp rebound

NYMEX Crude Oil
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

As seen in the above weekly chart, Crude Oil bulls attacked the market without a declaration of war and caught sellers unaware. The price quickly grew more than $10 in just three days.

This severe price action on the weekly chart has formed a so-called Bullish Engulfing pattern. That's when the small red bearish candlestick is followed by a large green bullish candlestick that completely eclipses (engulfs) the previous week's candlestick. It means that bulls have taken control of the market and the price has gone lower (or is at the end of the decline). [Read more...]

Should You Buy Crude Oil Or Gold?

One of the things I love about trading is how the dynamics of markets change. Change can happen quite quickly in many instances and quite slowly in others. In today's video, I'm going to be looking at some slow and fast changes in crude oil, gold, as well as the major markets.

I will also be looking at tools that you can use to spot changes and accelerations in markets and how you can set these tools up to work for you.

September promises to be a very choppy month as the markets settle down after the dramatic downturn we all witnessed in late August. One of the great things about the market is you don't have to be in the market all the time, you can be on the sidelines. Having a position on the sidelines is what I call the third position, there is nothing wrong with just observing the market from the safety of sidelines.

Two days ago, the gold market gave us a buy signal which I will be taking a look at in today's video. [Read more...]

The Unconventional Way To Play Oil In FX

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex

Will Oil continue to fall? That is still a question with no definitive answer. But as I emphasized in my latest article on Oil, there's a growing chance of an Oil rebound. And even if an Oil rebound doesn't eventually materialize it's prudent to have a strategy in place. In this article, we'll focus on a strategy that is slightly less common. Of course, you could just take a naked bet on an Oil-oriented currency, e.g. the Norwegian Krone or the Canadian Loonie. But those trades could easily and quickly tank if the signals for an Oil rebound turn out to be false. So what is this unconventional way? Don't short/buy a petro currency against a currency unrelated to oil (e.g. Dollar, Yen or Euro). Instead, buy or sell a petro currency vs. a peer that is deemed a commodity currency, but a non-petro one. That could prove to be a much safer play.

Trading Correlated Currencies Reduces Risk

When you trade correlated currencies against each other, such as the NOK and Aussie, you have a reduced upside. While that's a true statement, there are also big benefits. When there is a short-term gap in performance, there is a higher likelihood that this gap will close. And that provides an opportunity that is rather easy to spot. Then, too, the downside is also more limited, so while the profit might be reduced so are the risks. In fact, if you compare the potential of correlated trades vs. uncorrelated, those trends tend to be slower moving and generate fewer profits. However, it compensates the investor with more certainty (the gaps almost always close), making them less volatile and less risky. [Read more...]

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