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Fed Rate Decision: Buy the Dollar on the Dips

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex

The Fed rate decision is approaching quickly. Will the Fed choose to ignore the headline inflation figure and China's woes and decide to press on with a rate hike this month? No one really knows what they'll decide. One might conclude then, that if the Fed rate decision is a guessing game, so is the Dollar, right? Wrong! In fact, the Fed rate decision could be one of the best times to pile on to the Dollar and buy it cheap.

Fed Rate Hike Not Priced In

With all that talk of a Fed rate hike it might seem that a Fed rate hike is now priced in. But that's not the case. As the data from the CME Fed Fund futures prices, the market sees only a 25% chance for the Fed to raise rates this September. And that could explain why the Dollar Index took a dip over the past weeks.

CME Group FEDWatch

But here's where it gets really interesting. When we move forward on the calendar and examine the probability of a rate hike by December, the likelihood jumps to 59%. If we continue to move on into March 2016, that probability jumps to 77%. That means markets are almost certain that the Fed will raise rates at least once in the coming two quarters. [Read more...]

Surprise, Greece Has No Money

It just seems to this observer that the Greek kabuki dance is never ending. How can banks keep lending money to a country that is insolvent? That seems a little backward and just stupid to me. What do you think of the situation in Greece?

Here's the reality of the situation, Greece is going to default, the bankers may as well get ready to write off those loans as the money is not coming back. The next question is, whose next, Portugal, Spain or Italy? The next buzzword that is going to come out of all this is contagion. I think when Greece exits the eurozone it will be good for the euro longer-term. Think of it like when a company announces bad earnings and fires the CEO. The stock price has anticipated and discounted all the bad news and for the most part things get better over time for that company. The euro is the same way as pretty much all the bad news is out, except the actual exit of Greece from the euro.

Sooner or later it's going to come to crunch time and time is getting short. Angela Merkel and Germany are going to have to swallow their pride and make some important decisions very soon.

So onto the only economy that seems to be working and that is the US. Today I'm are going to be looking at the major indices to see if they are beginning to tire or getting ready for another upward push.

I'm also going to be looking at three stocks today. [Read more...]

Are The Markets Just Teasing Us?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Wednesday, the 26th of March.

It would appear as though most of the major indices have just been spinning their wheels and going nowhere fast in the past 4 to 5 weeks as they have all been in a broad trading range. This type of market action can lull investors to complacency, but for me it has always been a wake-up call to pay close attention to the market as something big is going to happen.

As I see it, the market is doing one of two things, it's either building a base to move higher or it's a distribution top – only time will tell which is the correct answer.

One of our members suggested that the Dow 30 could be making an inverse head and shoulders formation. Certainly this is possible, but I need to see a clear breakout to the upside to confirm this formation.

The other concern I have is the damage done to the NASDAQ earlier this week as it fell to a 6-week low. How this particular index closes on Friday is going to be very important in my mind. Again, I will be watching this market very closely for signs of either a continuation of the bullish trend or a top. [Read more...]

Bulls or Bears - Who Will Win?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Tuesday, the 11th of March.

The Dow Is Balanced

Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX:DJI), you have half of the stocks in a bull trend and the other half in a bear trend, giving a very mixed picture and somewhat neutral look to the Dow 30. The question is, which side is going to win out, the bulls or the bears? As with any market, I will be watching the Trade Triangles for an indication of this index's next move.

Gold Adjusting To New Levels

After rallying over $150 from the lows that were seen in late December, the gold market has gone into a sideways pattern as it begins to readjust to its new trading levels of $1,320 to $1,360. At the moment, it would look like short-term traders should be out of this market and that long-term traders could hold on to long gold positions. I'm still see the Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) moving higher longer-term. [Read more...]

Showtime For Apple

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Tuesday, the 22nd of October.

Today at 10am PT/1pm ET, it's showtime for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at the Yerba Buena Center in San Francisco. In previous years, there has been an air of mystery about what surprises Apple has for the market. This year however, most of the news has been spilled and the world will be looking for new iPads with retina displays, improvements in the Mac line and possibly more information on Maverick, Apple's new operating system for the desktop and laptop world.

As always, Apple teases us with a slogan, and this year is no different as the slogan that's draped around the Yerba Buena Center reads, "We Still Have a Lot to Cover." What exactly that means remains to be seen. That air of the next big thing is one of the reasons Apple events are so intriguing to the world.

In addition to analyzing Apple, I will also be looking at the major indices, crude oil, gold, and the US dollar.

I always appreciate your comments and feedback, so please feel free to leave them on this blog, along with any questions you might have for us.

Have a great trading day,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

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Adam appears frequently on the following financial news channels as a guest expert. Click on any cable logo to watch Adam's latest appearance.

Today's Video Update: What Goes Up, Must Come Down...Right?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 17th of June.

Are High Gas Prices Going To Squash The Economic Recovery?
Last week, all of our Trade Triangles jumped into a positive position, indicating that crude oil prices are headed higher once again. Some of that can be attribute to the events in the Middle East, mainly in Syria. The move higher also has to do with the technical makeup of the market. This market has been moving sideways for a while and seems poised to want to break over the $100 barrel level in the not-too-distant future. This increase in gasoline prices would come at a terrible time for most Americans, as summer driving tends to drive up demand for gas. I will be covering crude oil in today's video.

What Goes Up, Must Come Down... Right?
The battle continues between the Bulls and the Bears as the markets continue to vacillate both on the upside and downside. Certainly, my call to be on the sidelines for intermediate-term traders has proven to be a wise one. I continue to think that the longer-term trend for the equity markets remains in a positive mode, but it's more of a sideways pattern that we are seeing in the major indices right now. [Read more...]

Today's Video Update: What's Ahead For June?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 31st of May.

What's Ahead For June?
It's May 31st, the last trading day of the month and the week. In today's video, I will look ahead into our crystal ball (just kidding!) and share with you what I see coming up in June. You might be surprised at my conclusions.

Watch Today's Video Update Here

The 52-Week Rule
I learned this rule many years ago from a trader named Bill, when I was trading in the pits of the Chicago Mercantile where I was a member. Over the years, it has proven to have a high degree of success. Just remember, there are no guarantees made or implied that this approach works with every trade. I suggest you watch it, paper trade it, and draw your own conclusions. Here are the three rules you need to trade "The 52-Week New Highs on Friday Rule": [Read more...]

Today's Video Update: The Beat Goes On

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Wednesday, the 15th of May.

Google Music?
Word on the street is that Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is set to announce today a new streaming music service, one that will compete against Pandora and Spotify. Once again, it seems as though Google wants to be everything to everybody, and whether Google can compete in the music business and be successful remains to be seen. Should you buy or sell Google? If you haven't watched my Google trading video on how to trade Google successfully, you can watch it here.

The Beat Goes On
Stock prices hit a high yesterday as more and more disenfranchised short sellers are covering their shorts and exiting this market. So far, this market has not yielded to any downside pressure or correction to the surprise of many professional traders. What I do know, is that trends tend to persist longer than expected, and that they don't ring a bell at the top of any market. In a recent blog poll, we asked readers what they thought of the market: [Read more...]

New Video: Is the Cult of Apple Over?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 17th of December.

This will be my last broadcast for 2012, as I'm taking time off from trading during Silly Season. Jeremy Lutz, who you know from MarketClub TV, will be doing the updates until I return back to the markets in early January.


Apple just sold 2 million iPhone 5s in 3 days in China, yet its stock falls below $500 in pre-market trading. What is going on in the smart phone world?

This past weekend, my daughter and son-in-law came over for an early Christmas celebration. My son-in-law, who is a very smart guy and a computer engineer, showed me his new phone which to my surprise was not an iPhone5, but a Samsung Galaxy III. Much to my chagrin I picked it up and started playing with it and I have to admit some of technology, especially the Google voice technology, appeared superior to Siri, which is what Apple uses in its iPhone5 and IOS6 operating system. [Read more...]

New Video: Don't you wish you had a printing press?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Thursday, the 13th of December.


Once again Chairman Bernanke comes to the rescue by stating that he wants to keep interest rates low forever. Not a problem Ben, just keep printing money until it's worthless. As a private citizen of the U.S. you're not allowed to have a printing press to print money, there's a reason for that, it's against the law. It seems to me that Bernanke and the Fed are pretty much doing what they want, and who cares if the money just keeps going down and down and down. The government has been pushing the dollar lower for years. One major concern I have is that you cannot remain a superpower for long with a fiat currency.

Fiat money originated in 11th century China, and its use became widespread during the Yuan and Ming dynasties.The Nixon Shock of 1971 ended the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold. Since then all reserve currencies have been fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar and the Euro.

Next challenge … [Read more...]

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