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Weak

Fed Rate Decision: Buy the Dollar on the Dips

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Fed rate decision is approaching quickly. Will the Fed choose to ignore the headline inflation figure and China's woes and decide to press on with a rate hike this month? No one really knows what they'll decide. One might conclude then, that if the Fed rate decision is a guessing game, so is the Dollar, right? Wrong! In fact, the Fed rate decision could be one of the best times to pile on to the Dollar and buy it cheap.

Fed Rate Hike Not Priced In

With all that talk of a Fed rate hike it might seem that a Fed rate hike is now priced in. But that's not the case. As the data from the CME Fed Fund futures prices, the market sees only a 25% chance for the Fed to raise rates this September. And that could explain why the Dollar Index took a dip over the past weeks.

CME Group FEDWatch

But here's where it gets really interesting. When we move forward on the calendar and examine the probability of a rate hike by December, the likelihood jumps to 59%. If we continue to move on into March 2016, that probability jumps to 77%. That means markets are almost certain that the Fed will raise rates at least once in the coming two quarters. [Read more...]

Surprise, Greece Has No Money

It just seems to this observer that the Greek kabuki dance is never ending. How can banks keep lending money to a country that is insolvent? That seems a little backward and just stupid to me. What do you think of the situation in Greece?

Here's the reality of the situation, Greece is going to default, the bankers may as well get ready to write off those loans as the money is not coming back. The next question is, whose next, Portugal, Spain or Italy? The next buzzword that is going to come out of all this is contagion. I think when Greece exits the eurozone it will be good for the euro longer-term. Think of it like when a company announces bad earnings and fires the CEO. The stock price has anticipated and discounted all the bad news and for the most part things get better over time for that company. The euro is the same way as pretty much all the bad news is out, except the actual exit of Greece from the euro.

Sooner or later it's going to come to crunch time and time is getting short. Angela Merkel and Germany are going to have to swallow their pride and make some important decisions very soon.

So onto the only economy that seems to be working and that is the US. Today I'm are going to be looking at the major indices to see if they are beginning to tire or getting ready for another upward push.

I'm also going to be looking at three stocks today. [Read more...]

Are The Markets Just Teasing Us?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Wednesday, the 26th of March.

It would appear as though most of the major indices have just been spinning their wheels and going nowhere fast in the past 4 to 5 weeks as they have all been in a broad trading range. This type of market action can lull investors to complacency, but for me it has always been a wake-up call to pay close attention to the market as something big is going to happen.

As I see it, the market is doing one of two things, it's either building a base to move higher or it's a distribution top – only time will tell which is the correct answer.

One of our members suggested that the Dow 30 could be making an inverse head and shoulders formation. Certainly this is possible, but I need to see a clear breakout to the upside to confirm this formation.

The other concern I have is the damage done to the NASDAQ earlier this week as it fell to a 6-week low. How this particular index closes on Friday is going to be very important in my mind. Again, I will be watching this market very closely for signs of either a continuation of the bullish trend or a top. [Read more...]

Bulls or Bears - Who Will Win?

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Tuesday, the 11th of March.

The Dow Is Balanced

Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX:DJI), you have half of the stocks in a bull trend and the other half in a bear trend, giving a very mixed picture and somewhat neutral look to the Dow 30. The question is, which side is going to win out, the bulls or the bears? As with any market, I will be watching the Trade Triangles for an indication of this index's next move.

Gold Adjusting To New Levels

After rallying over $150 from the lows that were seen in late December, the gold market has gone into a sideways pattern as it begins to readjust to its new trading levels of $1,320 to $1,360. At the moment, it would look like short-term traders should be out of this market and that long-term traders could hold on to long gold positions. I'm still see the Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) moving higher longer-term. [Read more...]

Showtime For Apple

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Tuesday, the 22nd of October.

Today at 10am PT/1pm ET, it's showtime for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at the Yerba Buena Center in San Francisco. In previous years, there has been an air of mystery about what surprises Apple has for the market. This year however, most of the news has been spilled and the world will be looking for new iPads with retina displays, improvements in the Mac line and possibly more information on Maverick, Apple's new operating system for the desktop and laptop world.

As always, Apple teases us with a slogan, and this year is no different as the slogan that's draped around the Yerba Buena Center reads, "We Still Have a Lot to Cover." What exactly that means remains to be seen. That air of the next big thing is one of the reasons Apple events are so intriguing to the world.

In addition to analyzing Apple, I will also be looking at the major indices, crude oil, gold, and the US dollar.

I always appreciate your comments and feedback, so please feel free to leave them on this blog, along with any questions you might have for us.

Have a great trading day,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

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Adam appears frequently on the following financial news channels as a guest expert. Click on any cable logo to watch Adam's latest appearance.

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