S&P 500 Has Best Week Since 2011

Hello traders everywhere. After a tumultuous few weeks, the S&P and the NASDAQ are set for their best week since December 2011, while the DOW is on track for its best week since November 2016. This is quite the turnaround after we saw record-breaking drops in the markets just last week, but it seems that most traders just shrugged off the correction and went into buy mode.

All three indexes are now trading back above the 50-day SMA and looking to continue higher as a bullish sentiment enters back into the markets. In fact, with this weeks move up the S&P 500 is only 4% lower from it's all-time of 2872.87. That a pretty incredible and quick recovery from the 11.8% drop, last week at it's lowest point.

best week

Crude Oil

Crude oil headed for its first weekly gain since last month as the rising stock market eased concern about economic growth. A weakening dollar has boosted the appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency. Crude oil has once again made it's way above $60 a barrel and is currently trading above $61. However, it's still below its 50-day SMA.
Continue reading "S&P 500 Has Best Week Since 2011"

Declining Retail Sales Slow Down Market

Hello traders everywhere. The Commerce Department reported today that retail sales for January and December in the U.S. unexpectedly declined as receipts were revised lower, indicating that consumer demand in the first quarter may slow down.

Retail Sales

Highlights From The Report

  • Overall sales fell 0.3% (est. 0.2% gain), the most since February 2017, after little change in prior month (prev. 0.4% increase)
  • Purchases at automobile dealers dropped 1.3%, the most since August
  • So-called retail-control group sales, which are used to calculate GDP and exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, unchanged following a revised 0.2% decrease in December (prev. 0.3% gain)
  • 7 of 13 major retail categories showed declines in receipts
  • The Labor Department’s core Consumer Price Index, which excluded the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 0.2%. However, the year-on-year rise was unchanged at 1.8%

Continue reading "Declining Retail Sales Slow Down Market"

Stocks Dive As Volatility Spikes

Hello traders everywhere. Volatility is indeed the theme of the week, and you have to wonder if this is the new normal for the foreseeable future. The DOW opened over 300 pts higher only to reverse course to head as much 460 pts or 1.9% lower on the day as we head into the close where the big moves have come in the last hour of trading. The DOW will issue a new red monthly Trade Triangle if it breaks through the 26,616.71 and that would indicate it’s heading lower.

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both issued new red monthly Trade Triangles indicating that they have both entered into a short trading territory. In fact, the S&P 500 is very close to breaking through its support at the 200-day MA at 2539.03. If that’s broken, we could see the market head lower. However, we’ve seen the S&P 500 pass through the 200-day twice in recent memory only to head back higher. Will it be different this time?

Volatility

Crude oil is trading below $59 a barrel for the first time in 2018. This move lower has been about the growing U.S. inventory, an ever-increasing rig count, and a rising U.S. Dollar. It was reported today by Baker Hughes that 26 rigs were added this week bringing the total count to 791 active rigs. That’s 200 more active rigs than a year ago at the same time.

Bitcoin is up on the day and trading slightly above its 200-day MA which has given the cryptocurrency a level of support at the $7,958.53. Bitcoin seems to have calmed down and moved into a sidelines mode as we end the week.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

S&P 500 (CME:SP500): 2,872.87
Dow (INDEX:DJI): 26,616.71
NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP): 7,501.58
Gold (NYMEX:GC.G18.E): 1,334.80
Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.H18.E): 64.18
U.S. Dollar (NYBOT:DX.H18.E): 90.50
Bitcoin (CME:BRTI): 11,705.00

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

Stocks Plunge Erasing 2018 Gains

Hello traders everywhere. Volatility is the name of the game today after the DOW opened 567 pts lower only to reverse course and gain 367 pts before heading back into negative territory. Of course, this comes on the heels of a historic day where we saw the DOW shed over 1,150.00 (3.5%), the S&P 500 110 pts (4.6%) and the NASDAQ 250 pts (4.1%). The bulk of the selling came late in the afternoon after all three indexes broke through the 50-day moving average and when that happened traders headed for the exit in record-breaking fashion with the DOW falling over 1600 pts in that span.

I think the key thing here is to take a breath. As traders, we all knew this was coming sooner or later. There was no way that the low-volatility run to the upside was going continue without a major correction along the way. In fact, it's been two years since our last major correction to the downside. If you've been on the sidelines looking for a place to get in, now may be the time as some of the big players in the markets can be had at a discount, so take a deep breath and get to work.

Volatility

And then you have Bitcoin, which broke through it's 200-day moving average to new 2018 low of 5,902.73 before backing off that low today. That's it's the lowest level since early Nov. of 2017, right before Bitcoin pandemonium hit the markets pushing it to an all-time high of 19,528.87 in December of 2017. Continue reading "Stocks Plunge Erasing 2018 Gains"

Stocks Fall As Interest Rates Rise

Hello traders everywhere. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are lower on the day and ending the week lower after the 10-year yield rose quickly to 2.84%, a four-year high. This will be the first weekly loss of 2018 and the largest weekly loss in over a year. Is that a signal of things to come in February?

The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had expected growth of 180,000. Wages, meanwhile, rose 0.3% last month, in line with expectations.

Stocks Fall Interest Rates Rise

The report sent interest rates higher. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to 2.84% on the back of the report, hitting a four-year high. Investors have been jittery about the recent rise in interest rates, worrying they may be rising too fast. On Thursday, the 30-year yield rose to 3.074%, its highest level since March.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the most widely followed gauge measure of stock market volatility, rose to 14.48, after having fallen in the previous two sessions.

Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Stocks Fall As Interest Rates Rise"