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Strong

How Saudi Arabia Will Manage the Oil Market in 2017

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


OPEC agreed in Algeria to limit future oil production. This represents a major shift in the policy announced in November 2014 to compete for market share through lower prices.

The OPEC communique stated the group will retain output to a "target range of 32.5 to 33.0 million barrels per day" (mmbd). In the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC reported that production average 33.4 mmbd in September. While that is not far above the target range, there are other problems looming on the horizon; several countries—Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, and Libya—all want to restore their output to levels they were at before their supplies were disrupted, and that could push OPEC’s output up to nearly 35 mmbd if they succeed.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih reversed KSA’s position from last April when it would not freeze output without Iran’s agreement to do the same. Instead, he said, Iran, Nigeria and Libya would be allowed to produce "at maximum levels that make sense as part of any output limits which could be set as early as the next OPEC meeting in November."

My interpretation is that Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf producers are therefore going to have to absorb the cuts if they intend to achieve the target. [Read more...]

Oil And Trump Both Need To Pause And Catch Their Breath

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Oil has come a long ways, in really short order, rising from $26.21 on February 11 to over $38 as of March 31 (a 46% increase).

Hedge funds have become “as bullish on crude as they’ve ever been, according to the latest CFTC data,” said CNBC’s Melissa Lee on Wednesday.

Is the bullishness justified? Let’s try to sort all this out.

To start, here’s video of a Lee’s and Timothy Seymour’s CNBC interview of PR Advisors founder Robert Raymond. To me, Raymond’s analysis makes a lot of sense. See what you think. I’ve excerpted several statement from Mr. Raymond, followed by my comments (labeled Feik) to give you my view.

Raymond: “(The bullishness) is actually part of what has us concerned.”

Feik: I agree. John Templeton provided a favorite investing maxim of mine (and of many others) when he said, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” With so many people trying to bottom-fish in oil and energy right now, I don’t see the kind of pessimism or skepticism that sparks bull markets. So, like Mr. Raymond, that has me concerned. [Read more...]

Isn’t It Time You Took A Look At These Two Portfolios?

How would you like to know exactly what to do the next day with any given market and the price you want to do business at? What if the odds are amazingly in your favor when you trade and approach the market this way?

Sounds like a no-brainer.

The trading approach I'm about to share with you is one that has proven to be successful in both bull and bear markets.

If this sounds like some "pie-in-the-sky," too good to be true idea - it isn't. I have been involved with the markets for many years and this is the one approach that I have seen consistently make money. In fact, it is the genesis of my success in the markets.

This trading approach produced gains of 65.3% and 77.1% last year. Was that a fluke or just sheer good luck? How much does luck count in the market? Very little in my opinion, what really counts is having an approach that is well thought out and has proven to be successful. Once again, luck has nothing to do with that. The only lucky thing is perhaps you're reading this post and beginning to understand that there is a way to make money in any kind of market.

This well planned out approach has produced gains in one of our strategies as high as 501%, with the lowest gain being 35.3% in 2010, it has never had a losing year.

Here are the results from that approach: [Read more...]

The Hidden Jewel In MarketClub

As we begin the second quarter of 2014, I want to bring to your attention one of the "hidden jewels" of MarketClub.

A Portfolio With Results!

MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio (WCP) has never had a losing year in the 6 1/2 years that we have been tracking this portfolio.

When this portfolio was constructed almost 7 years ago, it was designed to include common elements that we thought would be important to the world. With an ever-expanding population worldwide, food is going to continue to be a major item. Likewise energy is going to play an increasingly important element in the world's economy. Over the years, the Dollar has also had its ups and downs and provided some great opportunities. Lastly, we looked at a store of value that has been in place since time begun and that is why we wanted to be actively involved in the movement of gold.

With these core components in place, the World Cup Portfolio was born. It was intended to be part of an overall bigger portfolio, but can function as a stand-alone portfolio. [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - Natural Gas

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

This week’s focus turns to the May 2014 Natural Gas futures (NYMEX:NG.K14.E), where the transition into spring seasonality and warmer weather has weighed down demand outlook. Over the winter months, we had continually seen larger than expected draws from Natural Gas supplies due to extreme winter conditions, but as US weather forecasts continue toward warmer levels, it appears the threat to already tight near-term supplies is diminishing.

Since reaching a high print of 4.893 a few weeks ago on February 24, 2014, May Natural Gas has taken a slight leg lower and consolidated over the past few weeks as it decides where it will head next. The Commitments of Traders report as of March 4th has shown traders have gone from a net long to a net short position on Natural Gas, which hints that the recent strong up-trend may be losing steam. In the near-term, I would agree with this negative bias, and look for a correction in the Natural Gas market.

For a swing trade, I would be a seller as the market moves below Friday’s low of 4.530. My near-term target would be the swing low of 4.393. This position would allow you to use the 20 day moving average as a resistance point, as this indicator has kept the market in check during the recent consolidation period. [Read more...]

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