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Dow Indu
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Gold
1324.900
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Strong

'Gold vs.', Pre-FOMC

By: Gary Tanashian of biiwii.com

We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners.  In order for that to be a ‘buy’, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order.  Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets.  Below are two important ones.

Gold vs. Stock Markets has been correcting the big macro change to the upside since leading the entire global market relief phase (potentially out of the grips of global deflation) earlier in the year.  A hold of these moving averages, generally speaking, keeps a key gold sector fundamental in play as the implication is that conventional casino patrons are choosing gold over their traditional go-to assets, stocks.  A breakdown from the moving averages and it’s back to Pallookaville for the gold “community”.

Despite gold having topped out (in nominal terms) months ago, the gold vs. stock markets indicators are intact. [Read more...]

Why The Convoluted Message From Yellen?

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

Why the tough talk out of one side of her mouth and ‘other policy tools’ language out of the other (ref. Yellen Lays Out Tools… )?  Oh, I don’t know.  Maybe it has something to do with this…

The stock market has merrily followed money supply aggregates upward since 2009.  When money supply decelerates the market corrects.  When money supply ramps upward the market ramps upward.  Money supply has been rolling over since 2014, which was not coincidentally when the first tremors began for the stock market in its recently completed top (that wasn’t).  From SlopeCharts

s&p 500 and monetary base

But something is out of whack here.  Let’s dial in for a closer look. [Read more...]

Semiconductor Sector, Updated

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

We have been using the Semis as a one of several economic signposts, and as an investment/trading destination since the Semi Equipment ‘bookings’ category in the Book-to-Bill ratio began to ramp up several months ago.  But those who say that Semiconductors are subject to pricing pressures are correct.  It is a segment in which people need to be discrete with their investments.  NFTRH 410 updated some details about this market leader.

sox vs. ndx

sox vs. spx

Semiconductor Sector

Semi has been a leader for our overall market and economic view, which has been bullish since noting that a trend of three straight months of increased bookings was established in April. The Book-to-Bill for July came in strong once again, with a new high in the key ‘bookings’ category. [Read more...]

2016: Current Market Themes

A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market.  We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.

But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit.  When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.

Back in April, with the first improvement in the Semiconductor Equipment sector’s bookings, we went on bull alert.  By June 22, we had established a trend in the rising bookings and noted the Details Behind Semiconductor Leadership and the bullish implications that this Canary’s Canary in the coal mine carried. [Read more...]

More on the 'Breadth Thrust' and Market Internals

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes.  One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market [possibly pending new rally highs] and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market.  We reproduce part of that segment here…

Ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? (July 12)

Subscriber ‘LN’ presented a view of the impending ‘breadth thrust’ signal and we both came to the same conclusion; that this is ending action in the stock market. It is at once very bullish and very bearish, depending on time frames. Below is additional information per ‘LN’, who is a financial adviser and thus, not a casual observer. I would also note that both ‘LN’ and I have similar caveats about analogs from the past projecting to the future (they often do not do it well). But for reference (emphasis mine)… [Read more...]

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