What Oil Price Band Do The Saudis Want?

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Back in December, I deduced that the Saudis had budgeted a little less than $53 for oil in 2017. Their budget was based on their belief that they didn't expect to see any U.S. shale oil production response in 2017. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid A. Al-Falih said it in answer to a question in the press conference after the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting (see video starting at 51:35). He backed-up his belief basing it on the time lag of when oil prices had peaked in 2014 and when production peaked in 2015.

After the deals went into effect on January 1st, oil prices remained above $50 per barrel. According to the EIA’s weekly production data, U.S. crude production rose by 318,000 b/d between the last week of December and the week ending March 3rd, just before Al-Fahil’s speech in Houston during on March 7th.

U.S. Crude Production

He said he is optimistic about the global oil market in the weeks and months ahead, but "I caution that my optimism should not tip investors into 'irrational exuberance' or wishful thinking that OPEC or the Kingdom will underwrite the investments of others at our own expense." Continue reading "What Oil Price Band Do The Saudis Want?"

Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating for OPEC

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Arrogant OPEC members thought they could beat American shale oil producers into submission in a market share battle. But instead, they caught a tiger by the tail, and now the tiger is turning on them.

OPEC producers were bragging back in late 2014 that they had much lower costs of production than American shale oil producers and could easily win back market share by undercutting their prices. But they failed to take into account that they needed higher prices than shale oil producers because oil revenues largely support their national budgets.

Low oil prices caused huge national budget deficits in OPEC countries. They did hurt the smaller, leveraged shale producers; however, they were able to take advantage of the bankruptcy laws in the U.S., not a real option for the producing countries. Their best response is to devalue their currencies, but there are a host of economic issues associated with exercising that option.

Fresh data were reported by OPEC and the U.S. Energy Department recently. The data imply that global oil stocks will rise, instead of decline in 2017, even with the OPEC-non-OPEC production cutbacks. Continue reading "Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating for OPEC"