Before the release of the Non Farm Payrolls last week on Friday, US markets could not catch a break. Lower highs and lower lows were put in on the daily chart of the S&P 500 after the new high was printed on November 29th. On Thursday, stocks took the day to consolidate inside the prior days price range, but exploded to the upside at 7:30 cst. Markets were treated to a better-than-expected jobs number where 203,000 jobs were created and the jobless rate in the US hit a five year low. Additionally, Consumer Confidence in the US shot up to a five year high soon after the jobs numbers were posted. In short, LAST WEEK traders and investors used favorable reports as a reason to buy equities. The big question is whether the stock market will react the same way THIS WEEK, when data is released. We will have to wait and see. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report (November 25th through November 29th)
New highs were seen in US equities last week as investors continue to bank on the FED maintaining their participation, at least until the end of the year.
Due to the shortened Holiday week in the US, we expect lighter volume across the board in the futures markets. Anyone that has traded Holiday markets over the years knows that low volume trading can either bore a trader to tears, or leave markets vulnerable to volatile, directional movement. Being aware of the potential for either scenario is important this week, and making arrangements for either is smart. [Read more...]
While the markets are packed with data throughout the week, the most important numbers will come on Wednesday when the FOMC releases their Interest Rate Decision. We will also hear from the Bank of Japan later in the week, but that report is scheduled as tentative at this point. Aside from these two Central Bank announcements, we expect the scheduled data that includes unemployment, CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Home Sales, and Retail Sales data to take a back seat. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report (October 14th through October 18th)
What can be said about the week that lies ahead? More of the same sounds about right. After Democrats and Republicans spent another full calendar week bickering and positioning, we seem to be no closer to a deal than we were in the prior week, and the threat of a default on debt continues to loom. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report (October 7th through October 11th)
Week two of the US Government Shutdown has officially begun and it appears that we are no closer to a resolution than we were when last weeks business concluded. Despite the fact that there are a few noteworthy economic figures and speeches being brought to the markets this week, all eyes will continue to follow news from Washington throughout the next five trading days.
In an effort to not bore readers with the same information that headlines every financial publication each day, I will spare you the details of the US Governments sophomoric behavior over the debt ceiling and suggest that traders should expect this debate to continue to weigh on the markets. If the last five years have taught us anything about the US Government and the big decisions and deadlines, we should probably expect some form of compromise in the eleventh hour on October 17th. While it is certainly a possibility that a resolution could be struck in advance of that date, I would not bet the farm on it. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report (Sept 30th through October 4th)
In the upcoming week, global markets have much to look forward to. In the United States, we will hear from multiple FED Members including Ben Bernanke and will also have to deal with the potential for a government shutdown in Washington. If that were not enough, Friday will bring the Non-Farm Payroll numbers that traders always look forward to. In Europe, the ECB will report their Interest Rate Decisions and we will also hear from the ECB President in a press conference that follows. The same decisions are expected this week in Australia and in Japan. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report (September 23rd through September 27th)
After the FED decided not to taper their Bond Purchase Program last week, global markets were given a nice boost, only to give most of the rally back by this morning. Now with only a few trading days left in the month, we will rely on a parade of FED Members that speak throughout the week to decide whether or not Wednesday was a one-day rally or not. We will also have to keep an eye on headlines as the debate in Washington continues, which threatens a government shutdown. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report (September 16th through September 20th)
Out of the fifty-two weeks each year, this upcoming week is one that I personally look forward to the most. Since the financial crisis several years ago, this week has been a standout year after year. There are several reason for all the hype, which I will share in the next few paragraphs.
First and obviously most important is the fact that the September FOMC Policy Statement is shared on Wednesday afternoon. We will hear about the FED’s decision on Interest Rates and whether or not they plan to taper their Bond Purchase Program (QE) from 85 Billion, or if they feel it is necessary to stay the course. Without having the ability to sit in this important meeting, traders will either begin speculating on the outcome before Wednesday afternoon, or they will keep the proverbial powder dry until after the announcement is made. Either way, I expect steady volume to return to the markets leading up to, and after Wednesdays disclosure. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report September 9th through September 13th
While the week ahead is light on economic data in the United States, the most important news that will affect global markets will still come out of the United States. Traders around the globe will look to trade any news from the White House on whether or not the US will go through with a strike on Syria.
After watching President Obama stumble through the G20 Summit last week, it will be interesting to see if the staff that writes the Presidents speeches can be convincing enough this week as Obama will look for support in the US. So far it appears that his only true International support is out of France where Socialist, Hollande stands firmly behind anything Obama says. Within the US borders, it also seems the Presidents support is drying up day after day. [Read more...]
Weekly Gold Report August 26th through August 30th
A late week recovery in equities was enough to keep markets guessing on a direction as we inch closer to the September 18th FOMC announcement.
In the first half of last week’s trade, US equities were under pressure as traders booked gains on long positions in anticipation of a taper from the FED. But by late week, the “buy the dip” mentality that has supported equities for months returned and stopped the bleeding.
Until global markets are finally given the FED’s final decision on their Quantitative Easing plans, I believe traders should expect similar market behavior to what we saw last week. In light volume Summer markets, we should expect decent volatility on any news in the US, and abroad. Lighter volume markets give investors and traders the ability to create exaggerated swings in price with larger lot orders. [Read more...]