Gold Takes Bugs On A Roller Coaster Ride

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

What is fear? It’s our emotion about something uncertain or unknown as it is natural for human beings to avoid risks. Someone said that to stop fearing it is good to face it as quite often it is only our mental illusion and has nothing common with reality. Another wise person advised looking at a larger perspective to cut the noise of the market to keep above the vanity.

I took both pieces of advice and combined them into a single weekly chart below.

Chart 1. Gold Weekly: Roller Coaster – Let’s Face The Maximum Fear

Weekly Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of

On the multi-year chart above, we can clearly see that the global map of the market didn’t change for the past 3 years and we are still at the levels seen in the three previous years. Almost a year ago at the end of November 2015, gold hit a new low and set the new edge of the range with a fresh downside at $1046 and the upside at $1434 (August 2013 maximum). Right now the price is almost at the center of the range. Continue reading "Gold Takes Bugs On A Roller Coaster Ride"

Top Metals Smashed The Euro! Will It Hit Back?

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

I started to cover European gold at the beginning of this year when it was at the 1000 EUR level. In spring I added silver to the pack as it had an interesting setup on the chart. Today I would like to share with you an update of the charts and to show you the outcomes.

Let us start with a single currency chart and see if we can find some clues which could help us with the metal crosses charts.

Chart 1. EURUSD Monthly: RSI Calls For Higher High

EURUSD Monthly
Chart courtesy of

Now, after almost two months, the dust of BREXIT hysteria has settled. The euro has managed not just to survive, but to score more than 2 cents after it touched the $1.09 mark on the referendum selloff in June. Friedrich Nietzsche once said - "That which does not kill us makes us stronger." The light version of the chart above had been shown to you in May.

The euro is still sitting on the very important trendline (dark gray) and the similar price action was earlier when the price approached this trendline. I mean the same combination of lower highs amid higher lows. The RSI has the same divergence as in 2001. This time, we have a flatter downtrend (orange) and the RSI is still below its trendline unlike in the previous case.

There are three triggers which could help the euro to have a big against US dollar once they are broken: Continue reading "Top Metals Smashed The Euro! Will It Hit Back?"

Topping Euro Signals New Highs For Precious Metals

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

This past January I wrote about European gold discussing two possible scenarios as the market was at the crossroads. The upside scenario played out. It is good to act once we know the direction as it gives us more confidence. Today I will review gold vs. euro and add silver to the pack. But the very first chart I will dedicate to the peaking euro as the price of the metals is quoted in a single currency.

Chart 1. Euro/$ Weekly: Price Is At The Top

Weekly Chart of Euro/Dollar
Chart courtesy of

The EURUSD is the most liquid currency pair in the world and it shows the strength of the US dollar, which is the measure of everything in the financial world. The global trend for the pair is down. The Euro hit a multi-decade bottom in 2015 and since then we have been stuck in a wide consolidation with a price range of 10 big figures within $1.0462-1.1467. I didn't take the 2015 high at $1.1714 as you can see that it was just a false break above the horizontal resistance. The price quickly fell back below resistance and closed a dip below it.

Last week shaped a reversal Doji candle, which, of course, needs further confirmation on the chart. We should see a quick drop below the middle of the channel (black dashed line) at the $1.1240 level.

The euro should break below $1.0462 to confirm the continuation of the global trend; it will certainly add to the bullishness of precious metals against this currency. If we get a weekly/monthly close above $1.1467, then we should watch closely after the reversal which will undermine the metals market in Europe. The third path is a prolonged consolidation as a result of the price reversal from the lower margin at $1.0462.

Chart 2. Gold vs. Euro Monthly: Break Up & Correction, Ready For Action!

Monthly Chart of Gold vs. Euro
Chart courtesy of

Gold was nimble enough to penetrate the upside of the downtrend at EUR 1065 in February. It is a good trigger for buyers. Patient traders prefer to wait for a good pullback to enter with safe stop (just below the trend) for a low-risk trade. And we can see this classic price action on the chart. It looks like the pullback has finished at the low of EUR 1065 (same price for the breakup) as the price rapidly advanced higher. Once the price passes the high at EUR 1165, we can move the stop to breakeven and enjoy the lossless bet.

The target is located on the upside of the trend at EUR 1270, if you read the earlier gold-euro post, you can see that the AB/CD concept also points to that level (EUR 1272). It's not a coincidence as both the trend model and the AB/CD concept use simple mathematical calculations.

Chart 3. Silver vs. Euro Monthly: Wait for Breakout!

Monthly Chart of Silver vs. Euro
Chart courtesy of

Silver didn't follow gold yet. Indeed, the price penetrated the dashed red trendline last October, but we didn't see the follow-through upside price action so far. Instead, the metal has been squeezed with a decreasing apex of the symmetrical triangle (highlighted in blue), one of the typical visual forms of consolidation.

It's good to trade on the breakout. The most expected action is upside penetration of the triangle amid rising a gold price. The target for the upside move is located at the EUR 18.75 level, calculated as a distance of the base (EUR 4.9, the widest part of the triangle) added to the break point. This is the area of the 2013 August high. In a less probable downside scenario the target is set at EUR 7.73 level.

Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from for their opinion.

Weak Euro Keeps Gold Afloat

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

One of our readers asked if I would do a Gold/EUR analysis when I posted my last Gold/$ update. Today I will cover this instrument and show its comparative dynamics for a broader view from the opposite side of the Atlantic.

Chart 1. 5-year Comparative Dynamics: Gold/Dollar Vs. Gold/Euro

5-year Comparative Dynamics: Gold/Dollar Vs. Gold/Euro
Chart courtesy of

As seen on the chart above, both Gold crosses have a very strong correlation over the past 5 years. Same peaks and troughs, US gold slightly overshot the European gold at all-time high in 2011; however, it proved to be short-lived.

At the end of 2014, we can see the sharp divergence of crosses (highlighted in red arrow) amid a deep devaluation of the EUR which caused a rocketing of Gold/EUR beyond the 1100 EUR mark. The elevation was short and in 2015, we saw a sharp drop back down in both markets.

There are two things worth mentioning: Continue reading "Weak Euro Keeps Gold Afloat"

Big Moves Can Start When You Least Expect Them

Now that the Thanksgiving holiday is over and we're entering December, traders should take extra care. Historically markets can move rather dramatically in December as trading volume thins out when traders start closing down their trading mindset and move out of the markets and into holiday mode. You do not want to start swinging for the fences to try to make your year in December, the odds are against you.

In addition to looking at the markets in general today, I'm going to take an in-depth look at the gold market. Everyone seems to be bearish on gold and what I have noticed over my trading career is that when everyone feels the same way about a market and is on one side of the trade, watch out!

That is the way the mood is right now for gold and there could be a sharp reversal as the shorts, that is the folks who sold gold short hoping to buy it back at a lower price, scramble to cover (buy back) their short positions. Continue reading "Big Moves Can Start When You Least Expect Them"