Gold & Silver: Silver Hits Support As Gold Cracks Consolidation

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

The recent collapse of the top precious metals shouldn't be a surprise if you read my previous Gold & Silver update in November, where I called for the upcoming “storm” after the “calm.” In this post, I’ll share with you the updated charts of both metals.

I changed the order of the charts, and this time I would start with silver as it reached the first decision point ahead of gold.

Chart 1. Silver Daily: First Target Reached

Daily Silver Chart (XAGUSDO)
Chart courtesy of

Silver has a strong bearish structure as the red long-term trendline keeps the pressure on silver. The second leg of consolidation within the black parallel channel lacked power as the price couldn’t reach even the top of the first leg established in October at the $17.47 per oz. It stalled at the $17.39 per oz. and then collapsed for more than a half of a dollar to check the consolidation support. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Silver Hits Support As Gold Cracks Consolidation"

Gold Stocks Are Under Pressure Except For One

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

Gold is under pressure after it couldn’t break above the previous major top and the gold stocks couldn’t escape the same fate. Last time I filtered the gold stocks by ROE and in this piece, I would like to make an update on their price performance for you.

To remind you, the top stock tickers are ABX (Barrick Gold), SBGL (Sibanye Gold), IAG (IAMGOLD), GSS (Golden Star) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining).

Chart 1. Top Gold Stocks Vs. Gold: The Brightest Star Is The Golden Star

Gold vs. Gold Stocks
Chart courtesy of

Gold topped on the 8th of September at the $1357 level, and that’s where I have started the chart. Gold (black) lost more than 4% from that peak. Three of the five stocks lost more in price than gold did: HMY (green) fell for more than 13%, your favorite (see chart #3) ABX (red) dropped almost 21%, and the worst performer is IAG (purple) with -21% drop, which was the top gainer in the previous update. Continue reading "Gold Stocks Are Under Pressure Except For One"

Gold & Silver: The Calm Before The Storm

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

In September I warned you about the possible weakness in both gold and silver after a good rally as strong reverse signals appeared on the chart. That warning alert paid well as the metals dropped heavily – gold lost more than 7%, and silver fell more than 10%. I hope it helped those of you who had market exposure that time.

There are updated charts below with further price action forecast, which is based on pattern recognition and market staging approach. I hope my detailed graphs with annotations will help you understand market behavior, training your eyes to recognize patterns and determine market stages with me.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: The Baby Bird Could Fall Out Of The Nest

Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of

In the previous gold chart I put two zigzags to show you possible paths for further price action, the red zigzag was the main option, it showed the downside move with a small consolidation inside. In reality, the drop has been even sharper with just a minor correction within. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: The Calm Before The Storm"

HUI Is Testing Support, XAU Is Yet To Try

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

Much to my dismay, I’ve never covered these hot indices in my posts. I detected some interesting chart patterns as well as significant price actions and thought if it might be interesting to cover and discuss.

These indices have a long trading history as well as great companies that are tracked by each index. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index’s components are only gold producers (17 companies) whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver miners (30 names). Below is the table of listings for comparison.

Table 1. Current Composition of Indices

XAU and HUI Index Listings

I highlighted the matching companies in green so you can easily see the difference between the indices. It is evident that the HUI index almost entirely sits in the XAU index (15 out of 17 names are in), the latter in its turn covers broader the precious metals market. Let us see in the charts below their dynamics and possible price action. Continue reading "HUI Is Testing Support, XAU Is Yet To Try"

Gold Update: Triangular Consolidation

Aibek Burabayev - Contributor - Metals

In the previous Gold & Silver update I warned you about the possible correction ahead. Indeed, both top metals showed weakness, but I didn’t think it would be that severe as we quickly reached seemingly distant supports both in gold and silver. Later I shared with you my concerns about golds outlook as the Fed starts cutting its massive balance sheet this month. This could be a real game changer as market wizards call for another perfect storm for the financial markets. In the charts below I try to model this change for you.

I would like to start with the U.S. 10-year Treasury notes (UST) chart as this instrument has a strong relationship with gold, which I already showed you in August.

Chart 1. U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes Daily: Bear Flag Works Out

U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes Daily
Chart courtesy of

Above is an updated and zoomed in chart from my last post. I chose a daily time frame to focus on the tactical move to see how the chart structure of the instrument develops over the time. Continue reading "Gold Update: Triangular Consolidation"