S&P 500
1987.98
+0.97 +0.05%
Dow Indu
17083.80
-2.83 -0.02%
Nasdaq
4473.47
-0.23 -0.01%
Crude Oil
102.08
+0.01 +0.01%
Gold
1292.510
+0.110 +0.01%
Euro
1.346780
+0.000280 +0.02%
US Dollar
80.816
-0.052 -0.07%
Weak

The Greatest Risk To Investors Today

By: Jody Chudley of Investing Answers

We've seen this set-up before...

All through 2006 and 2007, I heard some of the smartest minds in the investment game warning about the massive housing bubble that was about to pop. For a long time, these smart folks looked wrong, as housing prices kept going up and up.

Then things changed in a hurry, and we suffered through the worst credit crisis in our country's history and a housing bubble collapse. Anyone that didn't heed the warnings got crushed.

I see the same thing happening today. There have been warnings that we could be in for severe inflation ever since the Federal Reserve rolled out the printing presses back in 2008 with its "quantitative easing" program.

So far, not much has happened. However, similar to the housing bubble, that "nothing" could turn into something very quickly.

After years of easy money policy by countries around the globe, the inflation pump could be primed. [Read more...]

Article source: http://www.investinganswers.com/investment-ideas/growth-investing/greatest-risk-investors-today-22097

Currencies, Gold And The Big Picture

Here are the monthly views of the basket cases we call major currencies.

Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by "The Hero" and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time.  In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route.  When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.

Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern.  There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc.  I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root.  Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.

usd

 

Long ago we projected a rally in Uncle Buck’s chief competitor, the Euro.  This was due to a bottoming pattern (formed on shorter term charts) and unsustainable negative hype about the Euro crisis.  The target was around 140 +/-, which is the top of the post-2008 downtrend channel.  Euro remains in a big picture downtrend and if global asset markets start to come unwound in the coming months, it is not Euros people are going to run to, I can tell you that.  Bearish below the upper trend line. [Read more...]

The Real Price of Gold

The real price of gold, as adjusted by commodities is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding.  Here is a picture of the gold ETF vs. certain key commodity ETF’s and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.

gld.dbc

And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets.  Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU… [Read more...]

The Clock Is Ticking On Gold

Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere! Adam Hewison here and today's focus is gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO). It would appear that we are getting very close to seeing a significant reversal in the this market to the upside.

In this short video, I will be looking at a major trend line that has been in place since October 5, 2012. I will also be measuring some important 25 to 26 week cycles that are just kicking in. These cycles have been the driving force in gold over the past 12 months, so you need to pay attention to them.

Sometimes it's not obvious what drives prices and markets. It could be uncertainty or in gold's case, it could be the Ukraine, Syria, or the Dollar potentially losing its reserve status. Or, it could be something completely off the charts, no pun intended. We live in a world now where things can just show up out of the blue with no warning. [Read more...]

Is This The Move In Gold You Don't Want To Miss?

Last week, we looked at the cyclical nature of gold prices (FOREX:XAUUSDO) and the fact that gold was potentially at a low in time. Today's upturn in prices may be the beginning of an up move that will push gold back up to the $1,380 level.

At the moment, gold seems to have very few friends and sometimes that is the best time to buy this market. After hitting a high of just over $1,900 an ounce in September of 2011, gold has slowly drifted to the downside. I believe that the $1,200 level is an important area of support for this precious metal and should not be overlooked.

You have heard me say many times before on this blog that perception in the market is everything. Right now, the perception is that gold is not going to go anywhere in a hurry. While it may turn out to be true, there are certain clues out there indicating that gold could rally $150-$200 from the most recent lows. I'm sure many of you can recall when gold was trading close to $1900 an ounce, the talk of $2,000 $2,500 was all the rage amongst the traders. Right now with gold on the defensive and people calling for the gold market to go to $1,000 or even $800 an ounce, it's just the reverse situation. Sometimes it's psychologically difficult to turn your thinking around and that's why MarketClub's Trade Triangles do so well by giving you an unbiased opinion of the market. [Read more...]

What's Driving These Markets?

Hi guys, just back from vacation in Canada, had a great time. If you ever have the opportunity to get up to see the Canadian Rockies or ride on the Rocky Mountaineer I highly recommend it. Lake Louise one of the most famous spots in the Rockies because of its natural beauty still was frozen on June 1st. We also ran into many closed roads because of the snow.

It is good to be back and while I was away and see some of the markets have reversed, and some stay strong. Looking at the markets, I see that the strong upward trends in equities are continuing, and that's something we've been following for quite some time.

It also looks like the Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) market is now mixed, and the same goes for the Dollar Euro market. Strong trends persist in the crude oil market and will you be following these and other trends in today's video.

So let's get started and see what's going on in the markets right now. I will analyze the markets major and minor trends and share with you what I think is going to happen next week.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

The Government's Disastrous Reign over U.S. Money

By Elliott Wave International

Very few people know that the United States did not create a monetary unit pegged to "buy" some amount of metal, as if the dollar were some kind of money independent of metal.

In 1792, Congress passed the U.S. Coinage Act, which defined a dollar as a coin containing 371.25 grains of silver and 44.75 grains of alloy. Congress did not say a dollar was worth that amount of metal; it was that amount of metal. A dollar, then, was a unit of weight, like a gram, ounce or pound. Since the alloy portion of the coin was nearly worthless, a dollar was essentially defined as 371.25 grains -- equal to 24.057 grams, or 0.7734 Troy oz. -- of pure silver. (15.43 grains = 1 gram, and 480 grains = 1 Troy ounce.)

In a nutshell, a dollar was equal to a bit more than 3/4 of an ounce of silver; or, in reverse, an ounce of silver was equal to $1.293.

The same act declared that a new coin, called an Eagle, would consist of 247.5 grains of gold and 22.5 grains of alloy. It valued this coin by law at ten dollars, meaning 3712.5 grains of silver. [Read more...]

Louis James: Are You Ready for an Early Shopping Season?

The Gold Report: Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst at Casey Research, recently wrote in an article titled "Time to Admit that Gold Peaked in 2011?" that countered a chart making the rounds showing gold matching its 1980 inflation-adjusted dollars peak in 2011. The chart implies we should expect a decade or more of lower prices. Aside from the fact that John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics might have a problem with how inflation was calculated, how are gold's fundamentals different today than they were in 1984?

Louis James: The fact that things are different today than in the 1980s is a really good point. The argument over methodology almost doesn't matter. Even if it were true that the gold price of 2011 matched the inflation-adjusted gold price of 1980, that wouldn't mean that gold has to go down the way it did in 1980. There wasn't a near collapse in the banking sector back then. There wasn't the Lehman Brothers upset. The government did not triple the money supply. We're dealing not with apples and oranges, but apples and whales.

TGR: If history is not a map for the future, is John Williams correct that we are getting ready for hyperinflation? [Read more...]

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/n3XMmojNHoU/16045

Chart of The Week - Gold

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Further Downside Expected as Gold Finally Chooses Its Direction

This week's market focus turns to August Gold futures, where a break out of recent consolidation may have finally determined the near term direction of Gold. The week starts out extremely bearish for Gold as the stock market continues to establish new all-time high levels. Recent economic numbers that have missed the mark have provided additional confidence to stock market investors that FED support will continue in the stock market. Optimism that stocks can continue their higher track has taken away from the safe haven appeal of gold.

Over the past month, August Gold futures have consolidated into a very tight range as the market has been deciding on its future direction. As of this morning the direction looks to be a sell off for the foreseeable future. With a break of the recent pennant pattern at $1285, the next downside target will be $1240. A close below $1280 in today’s session would confirm a further potential downside move over the coming months.

To take advantage of this downside continuation, I would look to purchase August put option strategies in gold that would take advantage of the next potential continuation move to $1240, while allowing roughly 2 months for the strategy to work. These strategies would expire on July 28th. Per strategy used, we would look to keep the maximum exposure in the market to $500 and the maximum profit potential to $2,500.

I advise clients on trading futures and futures options markets on a day to day basis. If you have any questions regarding this chart or questions regarding trading futures and futures options, feel free to call me directly at 888-272-6926.

Thank you for your interest,
James Leeney
Account Executive
Phone: (888) 272-6926
www.longleaftrading.com

** There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data contained in this article was obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Information provided in this article is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this article will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Gold, Silver & the Macro

Those micro managing the precious metals are fixating on the Symmetrical Triangle (bearish continuation) and a coming 'Death Cross' of the MA 50 below the MA 200.

The Sym-Tri has been apparent for about three weeks and the Death Cross is hype put forth by those who would make grand TA statements.  The Death Cross means next to nothing.  I mean, how much good did the Golden Cross that the "community" was pumping in March end up doing?

gold

Gold is bearish and has been bearish by its technicals (below the 50 and 200 MA’s), and ever since the economic soft patch was was put behind us (cold weather, remember?) by its apparent macro fundamentals as well.  NFTRH has been keeping this situation locked down and in a box for future reference.  The box will be opened when the time is right.

Meanwhile, I'd suggest that people avoid micro managing gold.  It is not an idol or a religion, and while there is a whole industry champing at the bit to begin promoting it again, it is just a tool for retaining the value of money.  Sometimes tools sit in the toolbox.

As for silver… [Read more...]

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