Tag: Guest Bloggers

One Chart Explains Why Government Debt Is Dragging on the Economy

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Dan Steinhart, Casey Research

The US has too much debt. This is no longer a controversial statement. Some may believe other problems are more urgent, or that we need to grow our way out rather than slash spending. But even the most spendthrift pundits acknowledge that the debt-to-GDP ratio of the US must decrease if we are to have a stable, prosperous economy.

The private sector has reacted to this over-indebted reality as you would expect: by deleveraging. Since 2008, households and businesses have extinguished of 67% of their debt when measured against GDP. Some paid debt down purposefully, and others defaulted. For our purposes, it doesn't matter how the debt went away. Only that it did.

Meanwhile, the government has done the exact opposite. It has upped its own borrowing by 52% of GDP since 2008. Continue reading "One Chart Explains Why Government Debt Is Dragging on the Economy" →

Third Waves are "Wonders to Behold"

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The Elliott Wave Principle states that in financial markets, prices unfold in 5 wave patterns:

In wave 1, the trend has begun. Wave 2 makes a sucker outta you. Wave 3 is a powerful sight to see. Wave 4 is a corrective chore. And wave 5 is time to look alive -- once more.

Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior (the ultimate resource for all things Elliott) provides this definition for wave 3:

"Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns...

AND: "It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave and so on will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts... and runaway price movement."

This chart shows the personalities of each of the five waves. As you can see, wave three usually begins just when investors are convinced the bear market is back. (You can flip this chart for a five-wave move to the downside -- in which case, wave three begins just as investors think the bull market is back.) Continue reading "Third Waves are "Wonders to Behold"" →

Happy Halloween... Trick or October Pivot 2?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The run up and aftermath to the FOMC’s QE announcement last month brought a surge of bullish optimism to market players – especially those in the over bought precious metals – that was unsustainable. Enter the predictable October fright fest that has seen big-name US earnings reports routinely punished and sentiment knocked down across the broad markets.  It should be clear to all by now that the US economy is decelerating.

Of course, one look at the Copper-Gold ratio tells that story well enough and has been telling that story since the spring time.  Gold is a counter-cyclical asset that benefits when policy makers are pressured to attempt to compromise their currencies in service to economic growth.  Copper is a cyclical commodity that goes in line with economic growth. Continue reading "Happy Halloween... Trick or October Pivot 2?" →

Doug Casey's Top Five Reasons Not to Vote

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Doug Casey, Casey Research

L: Doug, we've spoken about presidents. We have a presidential election coming up in the US – an election that could have significant consequences on our investments. But given the views you've already expressed on the Tea Party movement and anarchy, I'm sure you have different ideas. What do you make of the impending circus, and what should a rational man do?

Doug: Well, a rational man, which is to say, an ethical man, would almost certainly not vote in this election, or in any other – at least above a local level, where you personally know most of both your neighbors and the candidates.

L: Why? Might not an ethical person want to vote the bums out?

Doug: He might feel that way, but he'd better get his emotions under control. I've thought about this. So let me give you at least five reasons why no one should vote.

The first reason is that voting is an unethical act, in and of itself. That's because the state is pure, institutionalized coercion. If you believe that coercion is an improper way for people to relate to one another, then you shouldn't engage in a process that formalizes and guarantees the use of coercion. Continue reading "Doug Casey's Top Five Reasons Not to Vote" →

Natural Gas Has Sex Appeal: Andrew Coleman

Posted on by admin

The Energy Report: In your last interview, you talked about raising price targets on energy sectors and individual stocks with promising reserves and production growth. Is that still your view, or have circumstances changed?

Andrew Coleman: What we're more worried about at this point is that the U.S. economy has been slower to recover than we expected. Meanwhile, the situation in Europe is getting worse and China's growth is slowing. To help us evaluate oil and gas markets in this context, our team here at Raymond James put together a bottom-up supply model looking at the oil shales, which was a follow-up to work the team had done on gas shales a couple of years earlier.

"The forward curve on gas is getting better."

The gas outlook has remained cautious, although not nearly as bearish as it was a couple of years ago. We have, however, become much more nervous on the short-term outlook for oil. We have a $65 per barrel (bbl) forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and an $80/bbl forecast for Brent for 2013. The forward curve on gas is getting better, and certainly 2013 gas is over $4 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) right now. Oil is our big concern and back in June we downgraded virtually every name that we follow in the EP space to the point where we now have no strong buys in our coverage group. Continue reading "Natural Gas Has Sex Appeal: Andrew Coleman" →