Housing Starts Down In September A Sign You Should Buy Housing Related ETF

Matt Thalman - INO.com Contributor - ETFs


Housing starts for September came in at 829,000 units, lower than the 851,000 units reported in August. Some economist and market participants are saying the weak housing starts are a sign the economy is beginning to show signs of wear.

Others have noted that 15.3% of the decline in starts came from parts of the country that were affected by hurricane Harvey and Irma. Furthermore, we can't forget about the wildfires in California, which may not be as impactful as the hurricane's, but still likely played some role in the decline.

Another data point that points to the health of the housing market is the National Association of Home Builders reported their Housing Market Index. In March of this year, the National Association of Home Builders reported their Housing Market Index hit a 71, just one point lower than its all-time high of 72 which was set in June of 2005. If you recall, shortly after June 2005 the housing bubble began to burst, and the housing crisis took down the U.S. economy. The NAHB report their Housing Market Index was at a 68 in October.

What is again interesting about these data point is that when the NAHB's Market Index hit its all-time high in 2005, the housing starts number was at 1.8 million.

Home builders have cited land and labor shortages for the 'low' number of housing starts. This could be a big problem for those looking to buy a home in the future because it could cause prices to skyrocket. But at the same time, that doesn’t mean the home builders will be making money hand over fist because remember their cost is going higher. Continue reading "Housing Starts Down In September A Sign You Should Buy Housing Related ETF"

Market May End The Year Where It Is Today, But You Can Still Make Money

Matt Thalman - INO.com Contributor - ETFs


A number of market participants have begun making year end predictions about where they believe stocks will finish. The predictions have the market finishing higher, lower, a lot higher, a lot lower, and right where it is today. Basically, no one really knows how the stock market will finish 2017 because no one can accurately predict the future.

But, when we look at the past, predictions have been made which aren’t as optimistic. Based on historical data a Goldman Sachs analyst has noted that when stock valuations have been where they are today, the market returns have been in single digits or negative.

Year-to-date the S&P 500 is already up 10.5%, which again compared to historical averages is an above average return. Furthermore, history tells us that we have market pull backs of 5%, 10%, and 15% rather often; about every 3 months, 8 months, and 14 months. We have not seen a 10% or 15% pullback in 2017. Continue reading "Market May End The Year Where It Is Today, But You Can Still Make Money"