Is The Spike In Bond Yields Trump's Fault?

George Yacik - Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates

Pretty much ever since Donald Trump threw his hat into the ring to run for president about 18 months ago, he’s been blamed for any number of things that have upset some people, no matter how preposterous.

He’s been blamed for recruiting Muslim fanatics to fight for ISIS. He’s been blamed for inciting violence at his own rallies, plus the riots that have followed his election. A middle school teacher in Berkeley, California - where else? - Blamed Trump after she had said she received an anonymous threat from neo-Nazis. I suppose if I spent enough time researching it I could find someone blaming Trump for killing Lincoln and Kennedy, the two World Wars and global warming - you just know he must have had something to do with that!

Now, since his stunning upset victory in the U.S. presidential election, bond yields have spiked to their highest levels since last January, and many people are putting the blame on him for that. Continue reading "Is The Spike In Bond Yields Trump's Fault?"

Blame it on the weather

George Yacik - Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates

I expect to hear shortly the refrain among financial analysts and talking heads to explain the recent spate of relatively weak U.S. economic news: It’s the weather!

Last year about this time, you remember, we were told that the unexpected 2.9% annualized drop in first quarter 2014 GDP was an aberration and all due to the harsh winter weather. And the economy did indeed rebound sharply after that, with full year 2014 GDP growth coming in at 2.5%. Hardly spectacular growth, but a lot better than the horrible first quarter would have indicated and certainly a lot better than other places outside China and India.

So maybe there was something to that weather thing, although I think it took way too much of the blame. Continue reading "Blame it on the weather"