S&P 500
-35.40 -1.85%
Dow Indu
-211.61 -1.29%
-149.96 -3.33%
Crude Oil
-0.69 -2.18%
+13.205 +1.14%
-0.004590 -0.41%
US Dollar
+0.394 +0.51%

Chart of The Week - Corn to Move Higher

By: Chris Wilkinson of Longleaftrading.com

Corn has been in an upward trend since it put in its lows at the beginning of October. From there the chart has traded a series of measured Fibonacci levels all the way into profit targets each time. Last week's correction brings us right at the next Fibonacci sequence to take a long position and stick with this trend.

For a review of the previous Fibonacci sequence that traded into profit targets we draw the Fib tool from the lows of November 19th (362.5) up to November 28th highs (393.75). With this drawn you can see the market pulled back and found support right on the 50% level and traded directly into its first and second profit targets, the -23.6% Fib level and the -61.8% Fib level. See the Chart below.

4 Hour Chart Corn

Now that the previous move has corrected we continue to draw the next series until we get to one that fails the 61.8% level. A failure happens when we get a strong close on a large time candle. An hourly close or higher is sufficient to call it a failure. Normally smaller time frames will trade back and forth around those levels so I look to larger time frames for confirmation. If a failure happens it is assumed the trend is over and the next one begins in the opposite direction.

The next move found by using the Fibonacci tool is drawn from the support of the previous move. We use the lows of December 3rd (377.25) and draw it all the way up to the new highs on December 29th (417). See Chart Below. [Read more...]

Gold Is Setting Up For a Short

By: Chris Wilkinson of Longleaftrading.com

The overall fundamental theme for gold is still bearish. With the dollar rallying and commodities being dollar denominated, all else being equal, the price of commodities should decrease. The market looks to be pricing in low inflation to come and gold is used as an inflationary hedge. This is a bearish fundamental factor.

What we saw last week was very opportunistic upward movement that is helping set up the much larger downward trend that I foresee coming. The cash injections from the ECB and China should be short lived as the market will once again see these central banking efforts will not have a large impact on global inflationary numbers. Let’s look at the charts to plan our trade.

[Read more...]

How To Find the Dips In A Trending Market

How do you trade a market that slips further and further from a level that looked attractive before it was too late? It's going, going, gone... Or how about seeing those monster moves and saying to yourself, "market order now or I will miss it", and so you do, and then you get torn to shreds.

The question then is, how do you avoid missing a large move without getting your head ripped off in a reversal. The answer is simple, trade the way a professional trades and you won't get caught in any traps. A professional has a disciplined approach with a strategy that suits their own trading style and account size which allows those trades to come to them so they will never feel like they are missing anything.

If you are one of those who is unsure of their strategy and is currently sitting on the sidelines watching the e-mini S&P futures continue its grind higher consider this. You missed over 180 points in returns from a very simple fib strategy and the move might be coming to end soon.

Here is what you missed after we got the bounce on October 16th: 10 point stop for all

1. Buy 1872.75 Sell 1899.50 + 26.75
2. Buy 1888.50 Sell 1912.00 + 23.50
3. Buy 1924.25 Sell 1953.00 + 28.75
4. Buy 1938.25 Sell 1964.75 + 26.50
5. Buy 1948.75 Sell 1973.75 + 25.00
6. Buy 1965.25 Sell 1995.25 + 30.00
7. Buy 2002.50 Sell 2026.00 + 23.50
Total= +184.00

Here is what to look for now: [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - E-Mini S&P 500

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

The major US stock indices pushed into record high territory late last week ahead of the start of the second quarter earnings season. To start this week, we see equity markets on a lower track following strong US economic data last week. Japan and European shares underwent profit taking, and with a relatively light US economic calendar ahead of the release of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, we may see a round of profit-taking following last week’s record high print.

Friday, July 4th, saw a consolidation within the previous day’s range with light holiday volume after the 7 previous sessions had finished in the green. As we open the week on a bearish note, I would look to be a seller in the September E-mini S&P 500 just below Friday’s low of 1973.50 or better. My downside objective would be just above the underlying long-term trend-line at 1950. I would place a protective stop-loss order just above Friday’s high print at 1978.00. Should the market follow through to the downside, I would roll my stop order behind the position accordingly. [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - E-Mini S&P 500

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

As we start the week our attention turns to the September E-Mini S&P 500 (CME:ES.U14.E) as it looks to extend a 6 day winning streak. US equities have benefited from the dovish and accommodative tone from the FED last week. Existing home sales and manufacturing PMI data have added an additional boost to the market this morning. Coupled with last week’s support, the path of least resistance in the S&P 500 is a move higher. The primary concern that could spark profit taking in this market are the geopolitical risks surrounding the conflict in Iraq which has given early strength to the Crude Oil market.

As we turn to the chart, last week we saw a breakout of a consolidation pattern in an overall strong bull trend last Wednesday, June 18. Since the breakout from this consolidation, the market has legged decisively higher to put in new all time high levels to close out last week. The market put in a new high print in the overnight session of 1959.75 and I expect this bullish momentum to continue this week. [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - Natural Gas

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

To start the week, we will be watching Natural Gas futures closely. July Natural Gas saw a spike higher overnight to $4.89, but gave back those gains in the early morning hours. There is a measure of support in the market as Russia has halted Natural Gas flows to the Ukraine. Along with halted Natural Gas flows to the Uklraine, the US Natural Gas storage remains tight and sits well below the 5 year average. With a warmer weather outlook across the US, the case can be made for a bullish week in Natural Gas.

On the technical side, Natural Gas has sold off to a critical area of support at $4.70. This bullish trend-line was broken in mid-May and since become resistance in the market. After last week’s EIA inventory report on Thursday morning, the market spiked back above this trend-line with closes above it on both Thursday and Friday. In today’s session, [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - 30 Year Treasury Bonds

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

This week's focus turns to the September 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures. The S&P 500 stock index has closed in the green 6 out of the past 7 trading sessions and many investors feel it may be time for stocks to partake in a minor correction. Typically, gold futures will receive a lot of the flight to safety bid in this case. Due to the recent break of consolidation in gold futures with the path of least resistance pointing down, 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures look to be the candidate to receive this bid.

On the technical side, September 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures have held a perfect bullish market structure since early April. Since the trend has been established, the market has held on every test making higher highs and higher lows. Since establishing a new high print of 138.10 last week, we have once again seen a retracement towards the original trend-line as the market looks for support. [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - Gold

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Further Downside Expected as Gold Finally Chooses Its Direction

This week's market focus turns to August Gold futures, where a break out of recent consolidation may have finally determined the near term direction of Gold. The week starts out extremely bearish for Gold as the stock market continues to establish new all-time high levels. Recent economic numbers that have missed the mark have provided additional confidence to stock market investors that FED support will continue in the stock market. Optimism that stocks can continue their higher track has taken away from the safe haven appeal of gold.

Over the past month, August Gold futures have consolidated into a very tight range as the market has been deciding on its future direction. As of this morning the direction looks to be a sell off for the foreseeable future. With a break of the recent pennant pattern at $1285, the next downside target will be $1240. A close below $1280 in today’s session would confirm a further potential downside move over the coming months.

To take advantage of this downside continuation, I would look to purchase August put option strategies in gold that would take advantage of the next potential continuation move to $1240, while allowing roughly 2 months for the strategy to work. These strategies would expire on July 28th. Per strategy used, we would look to keep the maximum exposure in the market to $500 and the maximum profit potential to $2,500.

I advise clients on trading futures and futures options markets on a day to day basis. If you have any questions regarding this chart or questions regarding trading futures and futures options, feel free to call me directly at 888-272-6926.

Thank you for your interest,
James Leeney
Account Executive
Phone: (888) 272-6926

** There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data contained in this article was obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Information provided in this article is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this article will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Chart of The Week - Live Cattle

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Live Cattle Futures Will Continue to Rise Throughout the Summer.

This week's focus turns to August Live Cattle Futures. I am sure many readers have seen the price of beef steadily increasing, especially as of late. In recent years, the state of Texas has been experiencing severe drought conditions which have significantly depleted the state's water source and has limited the amount of cattle that it produces. These conditions have caused ranchers to limit the amount of cattle output, or in some cases close up shop completely. We've had less and less supply to consume which has caused Live Cattle prices to steadily rise.

Over the coming summer months, I expect this trend to continue. US cattle herds are currently at a 54 year low. Along with already tight supply fundamentals, there have been almanac predictions for exceptionally hot conditions across much of the country, Texas included, in late June and through the month of July. The extreme seasonal weather that much of the country saw this past winter is expected to continue throughout the summer. I think that the conditions in Texas will continue to keep supply tight and increase the price of Live Cattle into the month of August.

The case for a bullish Live Cattle market is also strong on the technical side. We have seen a steep uptrend in Live Cattle futures since late last year. In the past 2 weeks, the market has consolidated its bullish move to form a perfect pennant pattern which is a continuation signal. If the market breaks this pennant formation strongly to the upside, the next near-term target would be 146.00. [Read more...]

Chart of The Week - Natural Gas

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

June Natural Gas (NYMEX:NG.M14.E) opened sharply higher in Sunday evenings session, but since the open prices plummeted to a 5 day low. The sell off confirmed a bearish outside reversal ahead of today's US session. June Natural Gas futures remain under pressure from last week's EIA storage report that showed a larger than expected supply build of 82 bcf. Recent weather forecasts have been calling for warmer temperatures across the country which could limit the size of upcoming supply injections.

In recent weeks, we have been in a sideways trend in the June Natural Gas Market as the market decides on which direction it is headed next. The technical analysis in Natural Gas points to bearish in the near-term, making way for a potential swing trading opportunity.

In today's trading session, I will be looking to sell June Natural Gas futures at 4.660, or a breach of the 20 Day Moving Average. This breach would confirm the outside reversal in today’s trading session. [Read more...]

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