This Is Status Quo Time

Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Despite the rally on Friday, there's been little change to the overall status quo of a broad trading range that I believe the indices are in.

Indices

On Friday the DOW (INDEX:DJI) closed at its best levels in 10 weeks, bringing it back up to the Nov/Dec lows which should act as natural resistance. The Dow is still in a 61.8% Fibonacci close-only retracement mode and should begin to falter around current levels. That's not to say that it can't go a little higher, but I think that it's doubtful that it can sustain higher values.

You can see much of the same picture with the S&P 500 (CME:SP500) as it is back into an area of Fibonacci resistance. I still believe that this index is cranking out a major top which began in August 2014. This week should be an interesting one as I expect to see more two-way trading, the key of course is where it closes Friday. Continue reading "This Is Status Quo Time"

If It Walks Like A Duck, Quacks Like A Duck, It's A Duck!

Hello MarketClub members everywhere! As the month of February rapidly comes to an end in just three trading days, I thought it would be interesting to look at where the markets closed at the end of January, which as you know was a very volatile month.

So here the closing values of the major indices, gold and crude oil on January 29th: Continue reading "If It Walks Like A Duck, Quacks Like A Duck, It's A Duck!"

Get Ready For A Buying Opportunity In Gold

Hello MarketClub members everywhere!

Gold

Is this pullback in gold a buying opportunity or a watching opportunity? I think it's the latter, and here are the reasons why.

Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) has had a remarkable rally from early December in 2015 to just a couple of weeks ago when the price of gold peaked at $1260 in the spot market. There are two things that I'm looking at in this market; one is for further consolidation and the second is that I believe that a major cyclic low will be occurring in the near future.

Looking at a chart of gold for the past 12 months you can see that gold had low periods in March, July and December. If that same rhythmic pattern holds true, the next low period should be coming up in April. I expect to see gold remain choppy until that time period.

The major reason why I want to pay close attention to gold is that I believe it is in a longer-term bullish cycle. One area to pay close attention to is the 50 support line on the RSI indicator. You also want to pay particular attention to the monthly RSI, which still remains below the 50 line indicating that it's not fully into a strong upward momentum cycle for gold. I believe that we will see further consolidation below the RSI line before it's broken on the upside. Continue reading "Get Ready For A Buying Opportunity In Gold"

A Santa Claus Rally Or Will The Grinch Steal December?

The massive equity market rally on Friday was driven by short covering and a jobs report that was more favorable than the market expected. This week is going to be a battleground between the bulls and the bears and is going to be a very important week, in my opinion. Are the markets going to continue last Friday's strengths or are we going to see a two-way trading market with a Grinch-like ending for December?

Since the beginning of December, I have been warning investors to be cautious as this month tends to be a difficult and volatile month because of the holidays. Not only do investors have the market to worry about, but also the threat of terrorism which I think is in the back of everyone's mind here and in Europe. Continue reading "A Santa Claus Rally Or Will The Grinch Steal December?"

Did Yesterday's Rally Cause A Reversal In The Market?

While the rally yesterday was dramatic and to the upside, I don't believe that it was enough to reverse the decline set by the previous weeks drop. Yesterday, The Trade Triangle's indicated that a move to the sidelines was in order and a neutral stance should be adopted. I feel that is the optimum position to have at the moment.

Many of the indices are now back to an area that should provide some resistance to yesterday's rally. One of the things I will be watching closely this week is how the markets close on Friday. Especially with next being be a short and abbreviated trading week because of Thanksgiving.

Overall, 2015 was not a good year for hedge funds. I made that statement before, but several major hedge funds have dramatically reduced their exposure to stocks, I think this is a smart move as I still feel as though this market is undecided as to which direction it wants to go. Continue reading "Did Yesterday's Rally Cause A Reversal In The Market?"